Managing operational activities when contingent performance deliverables are in place

• US 8,983,857 B2
• Filed: 01/28/2008
• Issued: 03/17/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 01/28/2008
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Blake Johnson
• Original Assignee: Blake Johnson
• Inventors: Johnson, Blake
• Primary Examiner(s): Ravetti, Dante
• Application Number:
  US12/021,213
• Publication Number:
  US 20090192841A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,605 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7, 705/16, 705/21, 705/59, 705/71, 380/44, 380/262, 380/278, 380/279
• US Class Current: 705/7.11
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities

Abstract

When uncertainty is present, operational activities and counterparty relationships related to such operational activities are evaluated and appropriate management actions determined by utilizing data records comprising Contingent Performance Deliverables (CPDs), where a CPD specifies a set of rights and obligations for two or more counterparties to the CPD with respect to operational activities of the counterparties, wherein the rights and obligations are defined over a set of uncertain potential future events (SPFE). Analysis is conducted to assess relevant sources of uncertainty, and to determine appropriate actions under the operational activities, counterparty relationships, and CPD rights and obligations across such sources of uncertainty. After the actions are determined, their impact on the operational activities and counterparty relationships, and on associated performance measures, is determined across the sources of uncertainty. Management of the operational activities and counterparty relationships is improved by utilizing the actions determined and the data generated on the future impact of such actions on operational activities and counterparty relationships subject to uncertainty.

Claims

1. A computer method for performing analysis of operational activities with respect to uncertainty data, the method comprising:

associating, by a computer processing device, numerical values with respect to operational activities;

defining, by the computer processing device, that the associated numerical values comprises a set of rights and obligations for each of two or more parties to a CPD with respect to the operational activities;

establishing, by the computer processing device, a data set comprising uncertain potential future events (SPFE) of the CPD;

linking, by the computer processing device, the associated numerical values to the created data set;

creating, by the computer processing device, a data record that comprises a contingent performance deliverable (CPD) having data specifying two or more parties to the CPD and the associated numerical values;

storing, by the computer processing device, one or more created data records in the computer processing device;

calculating, by the computer processing device, probability distribution function (PDF) data based on the created data records;

generating, by the computer processing device, data based on the calculated PDF data, wherein the generated data comprises a set of values;

recommending, by the computer processing device, actions to the operational activities from the set of values comprised in the generated data, wherein the recommended actions includes actions of at least one of the parties to the CPDs under the specified rights and obligations of the CPDs over the SPFEs of the CPDs;

associating, by the computer processing device, the set of values of the generated data to data that specifies one or more sources of uncertainty related to the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity, or to a party to one or more of the CPDs;

producing, by the computer processing device, a set of values based on the generated data that specify the recommended actions; and

indicating, by the computer processing device, results of implementing the recommended actions on the operational activities of at least one party to the CPD from the produced set of values.

2. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein the generated set of values, that specify recommended actions relating two or more of the parties to one or more of the CPDs, comprise data identifying organizational entities who are members of respective enterprises such that the respective enterprises are the same enterprise.

3. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein the generated set of values, that specify the recommended actions for relating the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity, comprise data that determines subsets of the operational activities of one or more such organizational entities.

4. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein the generated data comprising the set of values that indicates results of implementing the recommended actions includes data that determines actions for an organizational entity under at least one of its rights and obligations under a CPD, operational activities, or counterparty relationships where CPDs are not in place.

5. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein the generated data comprising the set of values that indicates results of implementing the recommended actions determines specification of objectives for such result.

6. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein the generated data comprising the set of values that indicates results of implementing the recommended actions includes data values for one or more performance metrics.

7. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein calculating PDF data includes utilizing probability values for one or more variables related to at least one of the operational activities, CPD rights and obligations, CPD SPFEs, or parties to the CPDs, where such probability values include joint probability distributions between such variables.

8. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein the generated set of recommended actions for relating the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity includes relationships with other parties where CPDs are not in place.

9. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein the generated data comprising the set of values that indicates results of implementing the recommended actions includes data comprising an estimation of actions of parties to CPDs under the party'"'"'s CPD rights and obligations, where such parties are not the at least one organizational entity.

10. A computer method as in claim 9, wherein estimation of actions includes calculation of probability values for such actions, and where such probability values may include joint probability distributions between such variables and SPFEs and other sources of uncertainty related to the operational activities, or to a party to a CPD.

11. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein the computer processing device produces a report on the likely result, or on one or more inputs used in the determination of likely result.

12. A computer method as in claim 11, wherein the report includes values defined over variables subject to uncertainty, including events from a SPFE of a CPD, or variables subject to uncertainty that are related to the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity, or to a party to one or more of the CPDs.

13. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein calculating PDF data comprises:

identifying variables subject to uncertainty and used to define events in the SPFEs, the rights and obligations under the CPDs, or related to the operational activities or to counterparty relationships related to the operational activities;

accessing data about the identified variables;

calculating probability values for identified variables in accordance with the accessed data.

14. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein calculating PDF data includes calculating the joint probability distribution for one or more of the variables.

15. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein probability values for the events in the SPFE of one or more CPDs are calculated in the computer processing device using the probabilities values for the variables.

16. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein the computer processing device screens the identified variables subject to uncertainty for at least one of level of uncertainty, impact on the operational activities, business information, or user preferences, and variables that do not pass one or more such screens are eliminated from the analysis.

17. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein the computer processing device selects a method for calculating one or more probability values based on comparison of the performance of alternative methods for calculating such probability values.

18. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein the computer processing device modifies one or more of the calculated probability values based on user input or specified criteria.

19. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein the computer processing device imports probability values for one or more of the identified variables from an external data source.

20. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein the computer processing device imports time horizon data such that the time horizon data is defined over probability values for one or more of the identified variables.

21. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein the computer processing device imports information about identified variables for which joint distributions are not required from an external data source.

22. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein calculating PDF data comprises:

identifying CPD rights and obligations under which counterparty actions are uncertain;

identifying variables related to the identified CPD rights and obligations and to uncertain counterparty actions under them;

accessing data about the identified variables;

calculating probability values for the uncertain counterparty actions in accordance with the accessed data.

23. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein the computer processing device imports probability values for one or more of the SPFEs for the CPD rights and obligations from an external data source.

24. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein the computer processing device imports probability values for one or more of the identified variables from an external data source.

25. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein the computer processing device excludes one or more identified rights and obligations from the analysis based on probability values of identified variables, business information, or user preferences.

26. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein the computer processing device categorizes the CPD rights and obligations for analysis based on at least one of CPD counterparty, operational activities addressed, business information, or user preferences.

27. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein the computer processing device selects the method used to calculate probability values for one or more uncertain counterparty actions based on at least one of business information, user preferences, or the nature and extent of available information about the identified variables.

28. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein the computer processing device calculates the joint probability distribution between one or more of the uncertain counterparty actions and one or more of the identified variables based on the data accessed.

29. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein the computer processing device modifies one or more of the probability values calculated based on user input or specified criteria.

30. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein the computer processing device selects the method for calculating one or more probability values based on the performance of alternative methods for calculating such probability values.

31. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein the computer processing device generates one or more user reports based on the results of the analysis.

63. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein the operational activities are defined by data of the CPD such that at least a first set of the set of rights for a first one of the parties to the CPD defines an operational activity that the first one of the parties may request from at least one of the remaining parties to the CPD, and at least a first set of the set of obligations for the first one of the parties defines an operational activity that the first one of the parties may be called upon to deliver to at least one of the remaining parties to the CPD.

66. A method as in claim 1, further comprising:

receiving user input specifying objectives for the result of the recommended activities, wherein the generated values satisfy the specified objectives.

32. A computer system comprising:

a processor;

instructions stored on a non-transitory computer readable medium, when executed by the processor, causes the processor to perform the operations of;

associating, by a computer processing device, numerical values with respect to operational activities;

defining, by the computer processing device, that the associated numerical values comprises a set of rights and obligations for each of two or more parties to a CPD with respect to the operational activities;

establishing, by the computer processing device, a data set comprising uncertain potential future events (SPFE) of the CPD;

linking, by the computer processing device, the associated numerical values to the created data set;

creating, by the computer processing device, a data record which comprises a contingent performance deliverable (CPD) having data specifying two or more parties to the CPD and the associated numerical values;

storing, by the computer processing device, one or more created data records in the computer processing device;

calculating, by the computer processing device, probability distribution function (PDF) data based on the created data records;

generating, by the computer processing device, data based on the calculated PDF data, wherein the generated data comprises a set of values;

recommending, by the computer processing device, actions to the operational activities from the set of values comprised in the generated data, wherein the recommended actions includes actions of at least one of the parties to the CPDs under the specified rights and obligations of the CPDs over the SPFEs of the CPDs;

associating, by the computer processing device, the set of values of the generated data to data that specifies one or more sources of uncertainty related to the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity, or to a party to one or more of the CPDs;

producing, by the computer processing device, a set of values based on the generated data that specify the recommended actions; and

indicating, by the computer processing device, results of implementing the recommended actions on the operational activities of at least one party to the CPD from the produced set of values.

33. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the data generated by the analysis engine of a set of values that specify recommended actions relating to two or more of the parties to one or more of the CPDs comprise data identifying organizational entities who are members of respective enterprises such that the respective enterprises are the same enterprise.

34. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the set of values produced by the analysis engine that specifies the recommended actions for relating the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity comprise data that determines subsets of the operational activities of one or more such organizational entities.

35. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the generated data comprising the set of values that indicates results of implementing the recommended actions includes data that determines actions for an organizational entity under at least one of its rights and obligations under a CPD, operational activities, or counterparty relationships where CPDs are not in place.

36. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the generated data comprising the set of values that indicates results of implementing the recommended actions determines specification of objectives for such likely result.

37. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the generated data comprising the set of values that indicates results of implementing the recommended actions includes data values for one or more performance metrics.

38. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the analysis engine utilizes probability values for one or more variables related to at least one of the operational activities, CPD rights and obligations, CPD SPFEs, or parties to the CPDs, where such probability values include joint probability distributions between such variables.

39. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity include relationships with other parties where CPDs are not in place.

40. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the generated data comprising the set of values that indicates results of implementing the recommended actions includes data comprising an estimation of actions of parties to CPDs under the party'"'"'s CPD rights and obligations, where such parties are not the at least one organizational entity.

41. A computer system as in claim 40, wherein the estimation of actions includes calculation of probability values for such actions, and where such probability values may include joint probability distributions between such variables and SPFEs and other sources of uncertainty related to the operational activities, or to a party to a CPD.

42. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the analysis engine produces a report on the likely result, or on one or more inputs used in the determination of likely result.

43. A computer system as in claim 42, wherein the report includes values over variables that are subject to uncertainty, including events from a SPFE of a CPD, or variables subject to uncertainty that are related to the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity, or to a party to one or more of the CPDs.

44. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the analysis engine calculates the PDF data by performing operations that comprise:

identifying variables subject to uncertainty and used to define events in the SPFEs, the rights and obligations under the CPDs, or related to the operational activities or to counterparty relationships related to the operational activities;

accessing data about the identified variables;

calculating probability values for identified variables in accordance with the accessed data.

45. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the analysis engine calculates probability values by calculating the joint probability distribution for one or more of the variables.

46. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the analysis engine calculates probability values for the events in the SPFE of one or more CPDs using the probabilities values for the variables.

47. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the analysis engine screens the identified variables subject to uncertainty for at least one of level of uncertainty, impact on the operational activities, business information, or user preferences, and variables that do not pass one or more such screens are eliminated from the analysis.

48. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the analysis engine selects a method for calculating one or more probability values based on comparison of the performance of alternative methods for calculating such probability values.

49. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the analysis engine modifies one or more of the calculated probability values based on user input or specified criteria.

50. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the analysis engine imports probability values for one or more of the identified variables from an external data source.

51. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the analysis engine imports time horizon data such that the time horizon data is defined over probability values for one or more of the identified variables.

52. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the analysis engine imports information about identified variables for which joint distributions are not required from an external data source.

53. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the analysis engine calculates the PDF data by performing operations that comprise:

identifying CPD rights and obligations under which counterparty actions are uncertain;

identifying variables related to the identified CPD rights and obligations and to uncertain counterparty actions under them;

accessing data about the identified variables;

calculating probability values for the uncertain counterparty actions in accordance with the accessed data.

54. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein the analysis engine imports probability values for one or more of the SPFEs for the CPD rights and obligations from an external data source.

55. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein the analysis engine imports probability values for one or more of the identified variables from an external data source.

56. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein the analysis engine excludes one or more identified rights and obligations from the analysis based on at least one of probability values of identified variables, business information, or user preferences.

57. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein the analysis engine categorizes rights and obligations for analysis based on at least one of CPD counterparty, operational activities addressed, business information, or user preferences.

58. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein the analysis engine selects the method used to calculate probability values for one or more uncertain counterparty actions based on at least one of business information, user preferences, or the nature and extent of available information about the identified variables.

59. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein the analysis engine calculates the joint probability distribution between one or more of the uncertain counterparty actions and one or more of the identified variables based on the data accessed.

60. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein the analysis engine modifies one or more of the probability values calculated based on user input or specified criteria.

61. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein the analysis engine selects the method for calculating one or more probability values based on the performance of alternative methods for calculating such probability values.

62. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein the analysis engine generates one or more user reports based on the results of the analysis.

64. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the operational activities are defined by data of the CPD used by the analysis engine such that at least a first set of the set of rights for a first one of the parties to the CPD defines an operational activity that the first one of the parties may request from at least one of the remaining parties to the CPD, and at least a first set of the set of obligations for the first one of the parties defines an operational activity that the first one of the parties may be called upon to deliver to at least one of the remaining parties to the CPD.

67. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the generated values satisfy objectives specified by user input specifying objectives for the result of the recommended activities.

65. A non-transitory computer readable medium containing instructions that, when executed by a processor, causes the processor to perform the operations of:

associating, by a computer processing device, numerical values with respect to operational activities;

defining, by the computer processing device, that the associated numerical values comprises a set of rights and obligations for each of two or more parties to a CPD with respect to the operational activities;

establishing, by the computer processing device, a data set comprising uncertain potential future events (SPFE) of the CPD;

linking, by the computer processing device, the associated numerical values to the created data set;

creating, by the computer processing device, a data record which comprises a contingent performance deliverable (CPD) having data specifying two or more parties to the CPD and the associated numerical values;

storing, by the computer processing device, one or more created data records in the computer processing device;

calculating, by the computer processing device, probability distribution function (PDF) data based on the created data records;

generating, by the computer processing device, data based on the calculated PDF data, wherein the generated data comprises a set of values;

recommending, by the computer processing device, actions to the operational activities from the set of values comprised in the generated data, wherein the recommended actions includes actions of at least one of the parties to the CPDs under the specified rights and obligations of the CPDs over the SPFEs of the CPDs;

associating, by the computer processing device, the set of values of the generated data to data that specifies one or more sources of uncertainty related to the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity, or to a party to one or more of the CPDs;

producing by the computer processing device, a set of values based on the generated data that specify the recommended actions; and

indicating, by the computer processing device, results of implementing the recommended actions on the operational activities of at least one party to the CPD from the produced set of values.