Real-time traffic prediction and/or estimation using GPS data with low sampling rates

• US 9,053,632 B2
• Filed: 06/29/2012
• Issued: 06/09/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 06/29/2012
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Shen, Wei, Wynter, Laura
• Primary Examiner(s): Amin, Bhavesh V
• Application Number:
  US13/537,277
• Publication Number:
  US 20140005916A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,075 Days
• Field of Search: None
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0129 for creating historical data or processing based on historical data

Abstract

The present disclosure relates generally to real-time traffic prediction and/or estimation using GPS data with low sampling rates. In various examples, real-time traffic prediction and/or estimation using GPS data with low sampling rates may be implemented in the form of systems, methods and/or algorithms.

Claims

1. A method implemented using a computer for determining traffic speeds related to at least one vehicle traveling in a transportation network, the method comprising:

receiving by the computer a plurality of real-time GPS-based speed records, wherein the real-time GPS-based speed records relate to real-time vehicle speeds in the transportation network;

receiving by the computer a plurality of historical speed records from a secondary source of speed data, wherein the historical speed records relate to historical vehicle speeds in the transportation network and wherein the historical speed records cover a time period;

determining by the computer a first characteristic of real-time GPS-based speed records of a first type;

determining by the computer a second characteristic of real-time GPS-based speed records of a second type, wherein the speed records of the first type indicate a higher speed than the speed indicated by the speed records of the second type;

determining by the computer a third characteristic of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type and the second type;

determining by the computer, for each of a plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a fourth characteristic of historical speed records of the first type;

determining by the computer, for each of the plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a fifth characteristic of historical speed records of the second type;

determining by the computer, for each of the plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a sixth characteristic of a combination of the historical speed records of the first type and the second type; and

determining by the computer traffic speeds related to the at least one vehicle traveling in the transportation network from the historical speed records of a selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods, wherein the selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods is chosen as the period in which a combination of the first, second and third characteristics is most similar to a combination of the fourth, fifth and sixth characteristics;

wherein the first characteristic is a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type;

wherein the second characteristic is a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the second type;

wherein the third characteristic is one of;

(a) a ratio of;

a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type to a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the second type;

(b) a mean value of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first and second types; and

(c) a variance value of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first and second types;

wherein the fourth characteristic is a count of historical speed records of the first type;

wherein the fifth characteristic is a count of historical speed records of the second type;

wherein the sixth characteristic is one of;

(a) a ratio of;

a count of historical speed records of the first type to a count of historical speed records of the second type;

(b) a mean value of a combination of historical speed records of the first and second types; and

(c) a variance value of a combination of historical speed records of the first and second types; and

wherein the period in which a combination of the first, second and third characteristics is most similar to a combination of the fourth, fifth and sixth characteristics is determined by utilizing a weighted sum of ranks calculation.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining traffic speeds comprises estimating existing traffic speeds.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein determining traffic speeds comprises predicting future traffic speeds.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the steps are carried out in the order recited.

5. A program storage device readable by machine, tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by the machine for determining traffic speeds related to at least one vehicle traveling in a transportation network, the program of instructions, when executing, performing the following steps:

receiving by the machine a plurality of real-time GPS-based speed records, wherein the real-time GPS-based speed records relate to real-time vehicle speeds in the transportation network;

receiving by the machine a plurality of historical speed records from a secondary source of speed data, wherein the historical speed records relate to historical vehicle speeds in the transportation network and wherein the historical speed records cover a time period;

determining by the machine a first characteristic of real-time GPS-based speed records of a first type;

determining by the machine a second characteristic of real-time GPS-based speed records of a second type, wherein the speed records of the first type indicate a higher speed than the speed indicated by the speed records of the second type;

determining by the machine a third characteristic of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type and the second type;

determining by the machine, for each of a plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a fourth characteristic of historical speed records of the first type;

determining by the machine, for each of the plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a fifth characteristic of historical speed records of the second type;

determining by the machine, for each of the plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a sixth characteristic of a combination of the historical speed records of the first type and the second type; and

determining by the machine traffic speeds related to the at least one vehicle traveling in the transportation network from the historical speed records of a selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods, wherein the selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods is chosen as the period in which a combination of the first, second and third characteristics is most similar to a combination of the fourth, fifth and sixth characteristics;

wherein the first characteristic is a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type;

wherein the second characteristic is a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the second type;

wherein the third characteristic is one of;

(a) a ratio of;

a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type to a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the second type;

(b) a mean value of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first and second types; and

(c) a variance value of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first and second types;

wherein the fourth characteristic is a count of historical speed records of the first type;

wherein the fifth characteristic is a count of historical speed records of the second type;

wherein the sixth characteristic is one of;

(a) a ratio of;

a count of historical speed records of the first type to a count of historical speed records of the second type;

(b) a mean value of a combination of historical speed records of the first and second types; and

(c) a variance value of a combination of historical speed records of the first and second types; and

wherein the period in which a combination of the first, second and third characteristics is most similar to a combination of the fourth, fifth and sixth characteristics is determined by utilizing a weighted sum of ranks calculation.

6. The program storage device of claim 5, wherein determining traffic speeds comprises estimating existing traffic speeds.

7. The program storage device of claim 5, wherein determining traffic speeds comprises predicting future traffic speeds.

8. The program storage device of claim 5, wherein the steps are carried out in the order recited.

9. A computer-implemented system for determining traffic speeds related to at least one vehicle traveling in a transportation network, the system comprising:

a receiving element comprising hardware that receives;

(a) a plurality of real-time GPS-based speed records, wherein the real-time GPS-based speed records relate to real-time vehicle speeds in the transportation network; and

(b) a plurality of historical speed records from a secondary source of speed data, wherein the historical speed records relate to historical vehicle speeds in the transportation network and wherein the historical speed records cover a time period;

a calculation element comprising hardware in operative communication with the receiving element, wherein the calculation element determines;

(a) a first characteristic of real-time GPS-based speed records of a first type;

(b) a second characteristic of real-time GPS-based speed records of a second type, wherein the speed records of the first type indicate a higher speed than the speed indicated by the speed records of the second type;

(c) a third characteristic of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type and the second type;

(d) for each of a plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a fourth characteristic of historical speed records of the first type;

(e) for each of the plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a fifth characteristic of historical speed records of the second type;

(f) for each of the plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a sixth characteristic of a combination of the historical speed records of the first type and the second type; and

(g) traffic speeds related to the at least one vehicle traveling in the transportation network from the historical speed records of a selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods, wherein the selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods is chosen as the period in which a combination of the first, second and third characteristics is most similar to a combination of the fourth, fifth and sixth characteristics; and

an output element comprising hardware in operative communication with the calculation element, wherein the output element outputs the determined traffic speeds related to the at least one vehicle traveling in the transportation network from the historical speed records of the selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods;

wherein the first characteristic is a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type;

wherein the second characteristic is a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the second type;

wherein the third characteristic is one of;

(a) a ratio of;

a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type to a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the second type;

(b) a mean value of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first and second types; and

(c) a variance value of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first and second types;

wherein the fourth characteristic is a count of historical speed records of the first type;

wherein the fifth characteristic is a count of historical speed records of the second type;

wherein the sixth characteristic is one of;

(a) a ratio of;

a count of historical speed records of the first type to a count of historical speed records of the second type;

(b) a mean value of a combination of historical speed records of the first and second types; and

(c) a variance value of a combination of historical speed records of the first and second types; and

wherein the period in which a combination of the first, second and third characteristics is most similar to a combination of the fourth, fifth and sixth characteristics is determined by utilizing a weighted sum of ranks calculation.

10. The system of claim 9, wherein determining traffic speeds comprises estimating existing traffic speeds.

11. The system of claim 9, wherein determining traffic speeds comprises predicting future traffic speeds.

12. The system of claim 9, wherein the steps are carried out in the order recited.

13. The system of claim 9, wherein the output element outputs the determined traffic speeds related to the transportation network from the historical speed records of the selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods to at least one of:

(a) a display monitor;

(b) a digital file; and

(c) a printer.