System and method for maintenance planning and failure prediction for equipment subject to periodic failure risk
First Claim
1. A method for failure prediction for equipment subject to periodically varying failure risk, the method comprising:
- receiving collected prior failure data of the equipment in connection with at least one of an environmental condition and an operating condition, wherein the collected prior failure data was collected during a time period excluding a portion of a failure history of the equipment;
identifying periodic effects on the failure risk corresponding to the time period excluding the portion of the failure history of the equipment and modeling periodic patterns;
modeling failure times with the periodic patterns;
constructing balance equations with respect to phase values of the failure times, wherein;
the phase values represent a phase at respective failure times during a time period that the equipment is in operation; and
the phase values are elements of a set corresponding to a duration of a cycle;
estimating, based on the balance equations, an unknown initial phase value at a start of the time period excluding the portion of the failure history of the equipment; and
using the estimated initial phase value when predicting a subsequent failure time distribution of the equipment;
wherein the balance equations are constructed according to the following equation;
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Accused Products
Abstract
Systems and methods for failure prediction and maintenance planning are provided. A system for failure prediction and maintenance planning, comprises a statistical modeling module comprising a periodic impact evaluation module capable of identifying periodic effects on the failure risk, a balance equation systems module capable of constructing balance equations with respect to phases of failure times, and an initial phase estimation module capable of estimating an unknown initial phase, wherein one or more of the modules are implemented on a computer system comprising a memory and at least one processor coupled to the memory.
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Citations
12 Claims
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1. A method for failure prediction for equipment subject to periodically varying failure risk, the method comprising:
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receiving collected prior failure data of the equipment in connection with at least one of an environmental condition and an operating condition, wherein the collected prior failure data was collected during a time period excluding a portion of a failure history of the equipment; identifying periodic effects on the failure risk corresponding to the time period excluding the portion of the failure history of the equipment and modeling periodic patterns; modeling failure times with the periodic patterns; constructing balance equations with respect to phase values of the failure times, wherein; the phase values represent a phase at respective failure times during a time period that the equipment is in operation; and the phase values are elements of a set corresponding to a duration of a cycle; estimating, based on the balance equations, an unknown initial phase value at a start of the time period excluding the portion of the failure history of the equipment; and using the estimated initial phase value when predicting a subsequent failure time distribution of the equipment; wherein the balance equations are constructed according to the following equation; - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
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Specification