Estimation of arrival times at transit stops

• US 9,076,330 B2
• Filed: 09/28/2012
• Issued: 07/07/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 09/28/2012
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Bouillet, Eric P., Calabrese, Francesco, Pinelli, Fabio, Sinn, Mathieu, Yoon, Ji W.
• Primary Examiner(s): To, Tuan C.
• Assistant Examiner(s): Hilgendorf, Dale W
• Application Number:
  US13/629,940
• Publication Number:
  US 20140095065A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,012 Days
• Field of Search: 701/118, 701/119, 701/120, 701/465
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/025 Coordination of plural reservations, e.g. plural trip segments, transportation combined with accommodation
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0104 Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0129 for creating historical data or processing based on historical data
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0141 for traffic information dissemination
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/123 indicating the position of vehicles, e.g. scheduled vehicles; Managing passenger vehicles circulating according to a fixed timetable, e.g. buses, trains, tramstransmission of navigation instructions to vehicles G08G1/0968

Abstract

Embodiments of the disclosure include a method for providing a consolidated estimated time of arrival in a scheduled transportation system. The method includes receiving at least one of a scheduled time of arrival, a real-time estimated time of arrival and a predictive estimated time of arrival and assigning a weight to each of the scheduled time of arrival, the real-time estimated time of arrival and the predictive estimated time of arrival. The method also includes calculating a confidence level and the consolidated estimated time of arrival based on the weights and the scheduled time of arrival, the real-time estimated time of arrival and the predictive estimated time of arrival.

Claims

1. A computer system for providing a consolidated estimated time of arrival in a scheduled transportation system, the computer system comprising:

a scheduling device having a processor, the processor configured to perform a method comprising;

receiving a production table that includes a scheduled location and a scheduled time of arrival at each of a plurality of stops along a route for each of a plurality of vehicles in the scheduled transportation system, which includes a plurality of routes;

calculating the consolidated estimated time of arrival for each of the plurality of vehicles at each of the stops based on the scheduled time of arrival and associating a confidence level with the consolidated estimated time of arrival;

calculating a risk of a passenger in the scheduled transportation system of missing a connection based on the consolidated estimated time of arrival and providing an alternative route to the passenger when the risk exceeds a threshold level;

based on receiving a real-time estimated time of arrival for one or more of the plurality of vehicles for one of the stops, re-calculating the consolidated estimated time of arrival based on the scheduled time of arrival and the real-time estimated time of arrival and increasing the confidence level with the consolidated estimated time of arrival; and

based on receiving a predictive estimated time of arrival for one or more of the plurality of vehicles for one of the stops, re-calculating the consolidated estimated time of arrival based on the scheduled time of arrival, the real-time estimated time of arrival, and the predictive estimated time of arrival and increasing the confidence level with the consolidated estimated time of arrival,

wherein the scheduled transportation system comprises at least two transport modalities and wherein the predictive estimated time of arrival is calculated based at least one of a real time data, a historical data and one or more external variables including a current weather and traffic conditions and wherein the predictive estimated time of arrival is the historical data calculated by assigning a higher weight to historical data measured in weather and traffic conditions that are comparable to current conditions given by the one or more external variables.

2. The computer system of claim 1, wherein re-calculating the consolidated estimated time of arrival based on the scheduled time of arrival and the real-time estimated time of arrival comprises assigning a first weight to the real-time estimated arrival and a second weight to the scheduled time of arrival, wherein the weight assigned to the scheduled time of arrival is based on an amount of historical and real-time information available.

3. The computer system of claim 2, wherein the first weight and second are calculated based on at least one of a confidence level of the scheduled time of arrival and a confidence level of the real-time estimated time of arrival.

4. The computer system of claim 3, wherein the confidence level of the real-time estimated time of arrival is based on an availability of data and a quality of data.

5. The computer system of claim 1, wherein re-calculating the consolidated estimated time of arrival based on the scheduled time of arrival, the real-time estimated time of arrival, and the predictive estimated time of arrival comprises assigning a first weight to the predictive estimated arrival and a second weight to the real-time estimated time of arrival.

6. The computer system of claim 1, wherein the real-time estimated time of arrival is based upon vehicle information received from a piece of equipment in the scheduled transportation system.

7. A computer program product for providing a consolidated estimated time of arrival in a scheduled transportation system, the computer program product comprising:

a non-transitory computer readable storage medium having computer readable program code embodied therewith, the computer readable program code comprising;

computer readable program code configured for;

a scheduling device having a processor, the processor configured to perform a method comprising;

receiving a production table that includes a scheduled location and a scheduled time of arrival at each of a plurality of stops along a route for each of a plurality of vehicles in the scheduled transportation system, which includes a plurality of routes;

calculating the consolidated estimated time of arrival for each of the plurality of vehicles at each of the stops based on the scheduled time of arrival and associating a confidence level with the consolidated estimated time of arrival;

calculating a risk of a passenger in the scheduled transportation system of missing a connection based on the consolidated estimated time of arrival and providing an alternative route to the passenger when the risk exceeds a threshold level;

based on receiving a real-time estimated time of arrival for one or more of the plurality of vehicles for one of the stops, re-calculating the consolidated estimated time of arrival based on the scheduled time of arrival and the real-time estimated time of arrival and increasing the confidence level with the consolidated estimated time of arrival; and

based on receiving a predictive estimated time of arrival for one or more of the plurality of vehicles for one of the stops, re-calculating the consolidated estimated time of arrival based on the scheduled time of arrival, the real-time estimated time of arrival, and the predictive estimated time of arrival and increasing the confidence level with the consolidated estimated time of arrival,

wherein the scheduled transportation system comprises at least two transport modalities and wherein the predictive estimated time of arrival is calculated based at least one of a real time data, a historical data and one or more external variables including a current weather and traffic conditions and wherein the predictive estimated time of arrival is the historical data calculated by assigning a higher weight to historical data measured in weather and traffic conditions that are compareable to current conditions given by the one or more external variables.

8. The computer program product of claim 7, wherein re-calculating the consolidated estimated time of arrival based on the scheduled time of arrival and the real-time estimated time of arrival comprises assigning a first weight to the real-time estimated arrival and a second weight to the scheduled time of arrival, wherein the weight assigned to the scheduled time of arrival is based on an amount of historical and real-time information available.

9. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the first weight and second are calculated based on at least one of a confidence level of the scheduled time of arrival and a confidence level of the real-time estimated time of arrival.

10. The computer program product of claim 9, wherein the confidence level of the real-time estimated time of arrival is based on an availability of data and a quality of data.

11. The computer program product of claim 7, wherein re-calculating the consolidated estimated time of arrival based on the scheduled time of arrival, the real-time estimated time of arrival, and the predictive estimated time of arrival comprises assigning a first weight to the predictive estimated arrival and a second weight to the real-time estimated time of arrival.

12. The computer program product of claim 7, wherein the real-time estimated time of arrival is based upon vehicle information received from a piece of equipment in the scheduled transportation system.