System tools for integrating individual load forecasts into a composite load forecast to present a comprehensive synchronized and harmonized load forecast

• US 9,093,840 B2
• Filed: 07/02/2010
• Issued: 07/28/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 07/02/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Alstom Technology Ltd. (Alstom SA)
• Original Assignee: Alstom Technology Ltd. (Alstom SA)
• Inventors: Sun, David, Cheung, Kwok, Chung, Kenneth, McKeag, Tory
• Primary Examiner(s): Fennema, Robert
• Assistant Examiner(s): STEVENS, THOMAS H
• Application Number:
  US12/830,038
• Publication Number:
  US 20110035071A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,852 Days
• Field of Search: 700/291, 707/611, 707/61, 707/618, 707/708
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 15/02 electric
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/00 Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks

Abstract

A system tool merges different load forecasts for power grid centers. A plurality of load forecast engines are coupled to a load forecast interface and a relational data base that saves load forecast engine data as an input through the load forecast interface. A comprehensive operating plan is coupled to the load forecast engines and the relational database. The comprehensive operating plan is configured to integrate individual load forecasts into a composite load forecast to present a comprehensive, synchronized and harmonized load forecast. A program interface provides access to the composite load forecasting schedule.

Claims

1. A system, comprising:

a memory that stores executable instructions; and

a processor, coupled to the memory, that executes or facilitates execution of the executable instructions to at least;

receive at least two different load forecasts related to a power grid center that are determined based on a first forecast engine associated with a first time range, a second forecast engine associated with a second time range, and a third forecast engine associated with a third time range;

integrate the at least two different load forecasts into a composite load forecast for the power grid center based at least in part on a weighted average of the at least two different load forecasts that are determined based on the first forecast engine, the second forecast engine and the third forecast engine; and

prepare a comprehensive operating plan for the power grid center based on the composite load forecast, daily scheduling data for the power grid center that is determined by the first forecast engine, timing data for at least one power generator that is determined by the second forecast engine, and financial data for the power grid center that is determined by the third forecast engine, wherein the comprehensive operating plan comprises scheduling data for a component of the power grid center.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the processor further executes or facilitates the execution of the executable instructions to:

perform a system dispatch based on the comprehensive operating plan;

assess a performance characteristic of data related to the system dispatch based on a performance metric for the performance characteristic established based on prior results;

provide access to the scheduling data for the component of the power grid center; and

receive an input related to the scheduling data.

3. The system of claim 2, wherein the input corresponds to a manual override of the scheduling data.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein the weighted average associated with the composite load forecast is determined based on information associated with the first forecasts engine, the second forecast engine and the third forecast engine.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein the processor further executes or facilitates the execution of the executable instructions to store load forecast data from the first forecasts engine, the second forecast engine and the third forecast engine in the memory.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein the processor further executes or facilitates the execution of the executable instructions to modify the composite load forecast based on an override of data associated with the first forecasts engine, the second forecast engine or the third forecast engine.

7. The system of claim 2, wherein the input corresponds to at least one of a scaling function, an adding function, a setting function and a linear transformation function.

8. A computer readable storage device comprising computer-executable instructions that, in response to execution, cause an apparatus comprising a processor, to perform operations, comprising:

receiving a plurality of different load forecasts related to a power grid center, wherein the plurality of different load forecasts are determined based on a first load forecast engine associated with a first time period, a second load forecast engine associated with a second time period, and a third load forecast engine associated with a third time period;

merging the plurality of different load forecasts into a composite load forecast for the power grid center based at least in part on a weighted average of the plurality of different load forecasts that are determined based on the first load forecast engine, the second load forecast engine and the third load forecast engine; and

preparing a comprehensive operating plan for the power grid center based on the composite load forecast, daily scheduling data for the power grid center that is determined by the first load forecast engine, timing data for at least one power unit that is determined by the second load forecast engine, and cost data for the power grid center that is determined by the third load forecast engine, wherein the comprehensive operating plan comprises scheduling data for a component of the power grid center.

9. The computer readable storage device of claim 8, wherein the operations further comprise:

receiving a load forecast request from a client device; and

serving load forecast data to the client device in accordance with the comprehensive operating plan, wherein different clients are served with consistent load forecast data.

10. The computer readable storage device of claim 8, wherein the operations further comprise aggregating the scheduling data in a network data store.

11. The computer readable storage device of claim 8, wherein the composite load forecast is generated based on linear interpolation.

12. The computer readable storage device of claim 8, wherein the operations further comprise truncating a time period of at least one of the plurality of different load forecasts to correspond to a same time period as a second of the plurality of different load forecasts.

13. The computer readable storage device of claim 8, wherein the operations further comprise applying a weighting factor model represented by model data to synthesize the composite load forecast.

19. The computer readable storage device of claim 8, wherein the operations further comprise at least one of:

performing a system dispatch based on the comprehensive operating plan;

assessing a performance characteristic of data related to the system dispatch based on a performance metric for the performance characteristic established based on prior results;

or

providing access to the scheduling data for the component of the power grid center.

14. A method, comprising:

receiving, by a system comprising a processor, at least two different load forecasts related to a power grid center, wherein the at least two different load forecasts are associated with a first forecast engine corresponding to a first time period, a second forecast engine corresponding to a second time period, and a third forecast engine corresponding to a third time period;

synthesizing, by the system, the at least two different load forecasts into a composite load forecast based at least in part on a weighted average of the at least two different load forecasts that are associated with the first forecast engine, the second forecast engine and the third forecast engine;

generating, by the system, a comprehensive operating plan for the power grid center based on the composite load forecast, daily scheduling data for the power grid center that is generated by the first forecast engine, timing data for at least one power generator that is generated by the second forecast engine, and financial data for the power grid center that is generated by the third forecast engine, wherein the comprehensive operating plan comprises scheduling data for a component of the power grid center; and

performing, by the system, a system dispatch based on the comprehensive operating plan.

15. The method of claim 14, further comprising

assessing, by the system, a performance characteristic of data related to the system dispatch based on a performance metric for the performance characteristic established based on prior results;

providing, by the system, access to the scheduling data for the component of the power grid center; and

receiving, by the system, an input related to scheduling that replaces a subset of the scheduling data.

16. The method of claim 14, wherein the scheduling data corresponds to at least two components of the power grid center.

17. The method of claim 14, wherein the synthesizing further comprises applying a weighing factor model to the at least two different load profiles forecasts.

18. The method of claim 14, wherein the composite load forecast is associated with a time period that is different than the different time periods.