Estimating probabilities of arrival times for voyages
First Claim
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1. A method for generating a route for a ship, the method comprising:
- identifying, by a processor unit, a start point and an end point for travel by sea for of the ship and a period of time for travelling between the start point and the end point;
generating a route by sea between the start point and the end point;
dividing the route by sea between the start point and the end point into a plurality of segments;
calculating, by a processor unit, a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments for the route using navigation information from a navigation database and forecasting information to form a plurality of segment probabilities for the route, wherein the forecasting information comprises data identifying forecasted conditions for the plurality of segments selected from the group of conditions consisting of weather conditions, currents, waves, and tides;
multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time;
repeating the steps of generating a route, dividing the route into a plurality of segments, calculating a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments to form a plurality of segment probabilities, and multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within a period of time for a plurality of different routes between the start point and the end point to form a plurality of route probabilities;
generating, by a processor unit, a graphical display and displaying at the same time on a graphic output device, the plurality of route probabilities of the ship reaching the end point from the start point within a period of time for the plurality of different routes; and
selecting the route for the ship from the plurality of different routes having a route probability from the plurality of route probabilities that is an acceptable probability of the ship reaching the end point from the start point within a period of time.
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Abstract
A method, apparatus, and computer program product are present for generating a route for a ship. A start point and an end point are identified for the ship. A number of forecasts of weather conditions is obtained for a period of time to travel from the start point to the end point. A probability of reaching the end point from the start point is generated for a number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form a number of probabilities.
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Citations
22 Claims
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1. A method for generating a route for a ship, the method comprising:
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identifying, by a processor unit, a start point and an end point for travel by sea for of the ship and a period of time for travelling between the start point and the end point; generating a route by sea between the start point and the end point; dividing the route by sea between the start point and the end point into a plurality of segments; calculating, by a processor unit, a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments for the route using navigation information from a navigation database and forecasting information to form a plurality of segment probabilities for the route, wherein the forecasting information comprises data identifying forecasted conditions for the plurality of segments selected from the group of conditions consisting of weather conditions, currents, waves, and tides; multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time; repeating the steps of generating a route, dividing the route into a plurality of segments, calculating a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments to form a plurality of segment probabilities, and multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within a period of time for a plurality of different routes between the start point and the end point to form a plurality of route probabilities; generating, by a processor unit, a graphical display and displaying at the same time on a graphic output device, the plurality of route probabilities of the ship reaching the end point from the start point within a period of time for the plurality of different routes; and selecting the route for the ship from the plurality of different routes having a route probability from the plurality of route probabilities that is an acceptable probability of the ship reaching the end point from the start point within a period of time. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
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13. An apparatus comprising:
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a computer recordable storage device; a program code stored on the computer recordable storage device; and a processor unit that executes the program code and causes the apparatus to identify a startpoint and an end point for travel by sea of a ship and a period of time for travelling between the start point and the end point; generate a route by sea between the start point and the end point;
divide the route by sea between the start point and the end point into a plurality of segments;
calculate a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments for the route using navigation information from a navigation database and forecasting information to form a plurality of segment probabilities for the route, wherein the forecasting information comprises data identifying forecasted conditions for the plurality of segments selected from the group of conditions consisting of weather conditions, currents, wave, and tides;
multiply the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time;
repeat the steps of generating a route, dividing the route into a plurality of segments, calculating a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments to form a plurality of segment probabilities, and multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time for a plurality of different routes between the start point and the end point to form a plurality of route probabilities;
generate a graphical display on a graphic output device displaying at the same time the plurality of route probabilities of the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time for the plurality of different routes; and
select the route for the ship from the plurality of different routes having a route probability from the plurality of route probabilities that is an acceptable probability of the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time. - View Dependent Claims (14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19)
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20. A computer program product that generates a route for a ship, the computer program product comprising:
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a non-transitory computer recordable storage medium;
program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that when executed identifies a start point and an end point for a the ship and a period of time for travelling between the start point and the end point;program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that generates a route between the start point and the end point; program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that divides the route between the start point and the end point into a plurality of segments; program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that calculates a segment probability for each segment in the plurality of segments for the route using navigation information from a navigation database and forecasting information to form a plurality of segment probabilities for the route, wherein the forecasting information comprises data identifying forecasted conditions for the plurality of segments selected from the group of conditions consisting of weather conditions, currents, waves, and tides; program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that multiplies the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the route; program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that repeats the steps of generating a route, dividing the route into a plurality of segments, calculating a segment probability for each segment in the plurality of segments to form a plurality of segment probabilities, and multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for a plurality of different routes between the start point and the end point to form a plurality of route probabilities; program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that generates a graphical display on a graphic output device displaying at the same time the plurality of route probabilities of the ship reaching the end point from the start point for the plurality of different routes within the period of time; and program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that selects the route for the ship from the plurality of different routes having a route probability from the plurality of route probabilities that is an acceptable probability of reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time. - View Dependent Claims (21, 22)
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Specification