Estimating probabilities of arrival times for voyages

• US 9,109,895 B2
• Filed: 04/30/2009
• Issued: 08/18/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 04/30/2009
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Original Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Inventors: Chen, Henry, Ballou, Philip J., Deng, Lang, Elkin, Jonathan David
• Primary Examiner(s): Zeender, Florian
• Assistant Examiner(s): Amsdell, Dana
• Application Number:
  US12/432,960
• Publication Number:
  US 20100280750A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,301 Days
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G01C 21/22 Plotting boards

Abstract

A method, apparatus, and computer program product are present for generating a route for a ship. A start point and an end point are identified for the ship. A number of forecasts of weather conditions is obtained for a period of time to travel from the start point to the end point. A probability of reaching the end point from the start point is generated for a number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form a number of probabilities.

Claims

1. A method for generating a route for a ship, the method comprising:

identifying, by a processor unit, a start point and an end point for travel by sea for of the ship and a period of time for travelling between the start point and the end point;

generating a route by sea between the start point and the end point;

dividing the route by sea between the start point and the end point into a plurality of segments;

calculating, by a processor unit, a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments for the route using navigation information from a navigation database and forecasting information to form a plurality of segment probabilities for the route, wherein the forecasting information comprises data identifying forecasted conditions for the plurality of segments selected from the group of conditions consisting of weather conditions, currents, waves, and tides;

multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time;

repeating the steps of generating a route, dividing the route into a plurality of segments, calculating a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments to form a plurality of segment probabilities, and multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within a period of time for a plurality of different routes between the start point and the end point to form a plurality of route probabilities;

generating, by a processor unit, a graphical display and displaying at the same time on a graphic output device, the plurality of route probabilities of the ship reaching the end point from the start point within a period of time for the plurality of different routes; and

selecting the route for the ship from the plurality of different routes having a route probability from the plurality of route probabilities that is an acceptable probability of the ship reaching the end point from the start point within a period of time.

2. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

responsive to a change to the route during travel, identifying a new probability for the route based on the change to the route.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the change is selected from at least one of a change in the desired speed for at least one segment in the route and a change in the period of time.

4. The method of claim 2, wherein identifying a new probability for the route based on the change to the route comprises:

responsive to the change to the route, generating the route, dividing the route into a plurality of segments, calculating a segment probability for travel of the ship at the desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments to form a plurality of segment probabilities, and multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together

to form the new probability for the route.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of calculating the segment probability for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the route further comprises:

calculating a probability of the forecasted weather conditions for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the route being correct.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the probability of the forecasted weather conditions for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the route being correct is calculated using ensemble weather forecasting.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of

calculating the segment probability for travel of the ship at the desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments for the route further comprises using a model of the ship to form the segment probability, the model of the ship including safe operating limits of the ship.

8. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

performing a voyage with the ship using the route selected from the plurality of different routes.

9. The method of claim 7, wherein the model of the ship comprises at least one of a maximum speed, a fuel consumption, a loading of the ship, engine power characteristics, a ship hull design, a number of propeller curves, and a ship draft.

10. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

generating a route, dividing the route into a plurality of segments, calculating a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments to form a plurality of segment probabilities, and multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time in response to an event.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein the event is a change in the forecasted weather conditions.

12. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

generating the plurality of different routes from the start point to the end point using a number of conditions and an optimization process.

13. An apparatus comprising:

a computer recordable storage device;

a program code stored on the computer recordable storage device; and

a processor unit that executes the program code and causes the apparatus to identify a startpoint and an end point for travel by sea of a ship and a period of time for travelling between the start point and the end point;

generate a route by sea between the start point and the end point;

divide the route by sea between the start point and the end point into a plurality of segments;

calculate a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments for the route using navigation information from a navigation database and forecasting information to form a plurality of segment probabilities for the route, wherein the forecasting information comprises data identifying forecasted conditions for the plurality of segments selected from the group of conditions consisting of weather conditions, currents, wave, and tides;

multiply the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time;

repeat the steps of generating a route, dividing the route into a plurality of segments, calculating a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments to form a plurality of segment probabilities, and multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time for a plurality of different routes between the start point and the end point to form a plurality of route probabilities;

generate a graphical display on a graphic output device displaying at the same time the plurality of route probabilities of the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time for the plurality of different routes; and

select the route for the ship from the plurality of different routes having a route probability from the plurality of route probabilities that is an acceptable probability of the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time.

14. The apparatus of claim 13, wherein in executing the program code to calculate the segment probability, the processor unit executes the program code to calculate the segment probability using a model of the ship, the model of the ship including safe operating limits of the ship.

15. The apparatus of claim 14, wherein in executing the program code to calculate the segment probability, the processor unit executes the program code to calculate the segment probability using the forecasting information identifying forecasted weather conditions, the model of the ship, and the forecasting information identifying forecasted waves.

16. The apparatus of claim 13, wherein the processor unit further executes the program code to display the plurality of different routes in association with the plurality of route probabilities on the graphic output device.

17. The apparatus of claim 14, wherein the model of the ship comprises at least one of a maximum speed, a fuel consumption, a loading of the ship, engine power characteristics, a ship hull design, a number of propeller curves, and a ship draft.

18. The apparatus of claim 13, wherein the computer recordable storage device and the processor unit are disposed on the ship.

19. The apparatus of claim 13, wherein the computer recordable storage device and the processor unit are located in a home office.

20. A computer program product that generates a route for a ship, the computer program product comprising:

a non-transitory computer recordable storage medium;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that when executed identifies a start point and an end point for a the ship and a period of time for travelling between the start point and the end point;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that generates a route between the start point and the end point;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that divides the route between the start point and the end point into a plurality of segments;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that calculates a segment probability for each segment in the plurality of segments for the route using navigation information from a navigation database and forecasting information to form a plurality of segment probabilities for the route, wherein the forecasting information comprises data identifying forecasted conditions for the plurality of segments selected from the group of conditions consisting of weather conditions, currents, waves, and tides;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that multiplies the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the route;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that repeats the steps of generating a route, dividing the route into a plurality of segments, calculating a segment probability for each segment in the plurality of segments to form a plurality of segment probabilities, and multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for a plurality of different routes between the start point and the end point to form a plurality of route probabilities;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that generates a graphical display on a graphic output device displaying at the same time the plurality of route probabilities of the ship reaching the end point from the start point for the plurality of different routes within the period of time; and

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that selects the route for the ship from the plurality of different routes having a route probability from the plurality of route probabilities that is an acceptable probability of reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time.

21. The computer program product of claim 20, wherein the program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that calculates the segment probability for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the route comprises:

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, that calculates a probability of the forecasted weather conditions for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the route being correct.

22. The computer program product of claim 21, wherein the probability of the forecasted weather conditions for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the route being correct is calculated using ensemble weather forecasting.