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Estimating probabilities of arrival times for voyages

  • US 9,109,895 B2
  • Filed: 04/30/2009
  • Issued: 08/18/2015
  • Est. Priority Date: 04/30/2009
  • Status: Active Grant
First Claim
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1. A method for generating a route for a ship, the method comprising:

  • identifying, by a processor unit, a start point and an end point for travel by sea for of the ship and a period of time for travelling between the start point and the end point;

    generating a route by sea between the start point and the end point;

    dividing the route by sea between the start point and the end point into a plurality of segments;

    calculating, by a processor unit, a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments for the route using navigation information from a navigation database and forecasting information to form a plurality of segment probabilities for the route, wherein the forecasting information comprises data identifying forecasted conditions for the plurality of segments selected from the group of conditions consisting of weather conditions, currents, waves, and tides;

    multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within the period of time;

    repeating the steps of generating a route, dividing the route into a plurality of segments, calculating a segment probability for travel of the ship at a desired speed for each segment in the plurality of segments to form a plurality of segment probabilities, and multiplying the plurality of segment probabilities together to form a route probability for the ship reaching the end point from the start point within a period of time for a plurality of different routes between the start point and the end point to form a plurality of route probabilities;

    generating, by a processor unit, a graphical display and displaying at the same time on a graphic output device, the plurality of route probabilities of the ship reaching the end point from the start point within a period of time for the plurality of different routes; and

    selecting the route for the ship from the plurality of different routes having a route probability from the plurality of route probabilities that is an acceptable probability of the ship reaching the end point from the start point within a period of time.

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