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Power curve correlation system

  • US 9,118,182 B2
  • Filed: 01/04/2012
  • Issued: 08/25/2015
  • Est. Priority Date: 01/04/2012
  • Status: Active Grant
First Claim
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1. A system comprising:

  • at least one computing device configured to verify a forecast of a power network load for a component of the power network by performing actions including;

    prompting the power network to provide load data for the component of the power network;

    obtaining, from the power network during operation, a set of load data for the component in the power network over a period;

    identifying similar load patterns in the set of load data using a pattern recognition technique, independent of at least one of;

    a scale for a component load, a predetermined minimum component load value or a predetermined maximum component load value, the identifying comprising;

    identifying similar historic load patterns in a set of historic load data;

    comparing the identified similar load patterns to the identified similar historic load patterns; and

    determining, using a mean absolute percent error (MAPE) function and based on comparing the identified similar load patterns to the identified similar historic load pattern, that the identified similar load patterns are similar to the identified similar historic load patterns within a predetermined accuracy range;

    grouping the identified similar load patterns into distinct groups based upon the identified similar load patterns in the set of load data, wherein the distinct groups are represented by at least one of;

    similar load values for the component over a predefined period, similar sudden increases in the load patterns for the component, or similar sudden decreases in the load patterns for the component;

    categorizing at least one of the distinct groups according to a recurring event associated with having a load pattern similar to a load pattern of the at least one distinct group;

    providing the at least one categorized group for verifying the forecast of the power network load for the component using the at least one categorized group, the providing comprising;

    providing the at least one categorized group and the set of load data to an interface;

    transmitting the at least one categorized group and the set of load data to a library of the at least one computing device; and

    storing the at least one categorized group and the set of load data in the library of the at least one computing device;

    verifying the accuracy of the forecast of the power network load by comparing an initial forecast with a provided categorized group; and

    reforecasting the power network load in response to inaccuracies in the forecast, wherein the reforecasting includes altering algorithms used in forecasting the power network load.

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