Gas demand prediction system and gas demand prediction method

• US 9,171,270 B2
• Filed: 06/07/2013
• Issued: 10/27/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 06/08/2012
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Nippon Gas Company Limited
• Original Assignee: Nippon Gas Company Limited
• Inventors: Wada, Shinji, Dekamo, Shingo
• Primary Examiner(s): COSIMANO, EDWARD R
• Application Number:
  US14/406,356
• Publication Number:
  US 20150149097A1
• Time in Patent Office: 872 Days
• Field of Search: None
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G01D 21/00 Measuring or testing not otherwise provided for
• CPC Class Codes: G01F 15/063 using electrical means
• CPC Class Codes: G01F 23/00 Indicating or measuring liquid level or level of fluent solid material, e.g. indicating in terms of volume or indicating by means of an alarm
• CPC Class Codes: G01F 3/00 Measuring the volume flow of fluids or fluent solid material wherein the fluid passes through the meter in successive and more or less isolated quantities, the meter being driven by the flow measuring a proportion of the volume flow G01F5/00
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 17/40 Data acquisition and logging for input to computer G06F3/00
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/08 Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply
• CPC Class Codes: G08C 25/00 Arrangements for preventing or correcting errors; Monitoring arrangements
• CPC Class Codes: G16Z 99/00 Subject matter not provided for in other main groups of this subclass

Abstract

A delivery server comprises: a reception unit configured to receive sets of meter indication data of a plurality of gas meters; a storage device configured to store the respective sets of meter indication data; a gas usage calculating unit configured to calculate a gas usage on a basis of comparison between corresponding sets of meter indication data; a first rate-of-change calculating unit configured to calculate a rate of change in a past gas usage consumed in each of a plurality of supply facilities on a basis of comparison between a plurality of gas usages in a time of earlier than a meter indication date of the received sets of meter indication data by a predetermined period of time; and a prediction unit configured to modify the gas usage in accordance with the rate of change and predict the modified gas usage as a prospective gas usage to be consumed.

Claims

1. A gas demand prediction system of predicting gas usages in a plurality of supply facilities, comprising:

a reception unit configured to receive respective sets of meter indication data of a plurality of gas meters in the plurality of supply facilities;

a storage unit configured to store the respective sets of meter indication data of the plurality of supply facilities, and one or more areas in which the plurality of supply facilities are respectively located;

a gas usage calculating unit configured to calculate the gas usage consumed in each of the plurality of supply facilities on a basis of comparison between corresponding sets of meter indication data stored in the storage unit;

a first rate of change calculating unit configured to calculate a first rate of change in a past gas usage in each of the plurality of supply facilities for the corresponding sets of meter indication data on a basis of comparison between the corresponding sets of meter indication data;

a second rate of change calculating unit configured to calculate a second rate of change in a past gas usage in the supply facilities located in a same area on a basis of comparison between corresponding sets of meter indication data in the same area stored in the storage unit; and

a prediction unit configured to modify the calculated gas usage on a basis of the first rate of change in each of the plurality of supply facilities and the second rate of change in the same area as an area in which each of the plurality of supply facilities are located, and predict the modified gas usage as a prospective gas usage to be consumed in the each of the plurality of supply facilities.

2. The gas demand prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the second rate of change in the gas usage is changes rates of an average in past daily gas usages within the each of the one or more areas in the same time as a meter reading date of the received sets of meter indication data.

3. The gas demand prediction system according to claim 1, further comprising:

a management unit configured to manage a remaining gas amount in the each of the plurality of supply facilities,

wherein the prediction unit is configured to calculate a prospective remaining gas amount available in the each of the plurality of supply facilities by subtracting the predicted prospective gas usage from the remaining gas amount in the each of the plurality of supply facilities.

4. The gas demand prediction system according to claim 1, wherein, when the supply facilities is equipped with a plurality of gas cylinders, the prediction unit is configured to predict a prospective remaining gas amount in each of the plurality of gas cylinders in the supply facilities by predicting the prospective gas usage in the each of the plurality of gas cylinders and subtracting the predicted prospective gas usage from a remaining gas amount in the each of the plurality of gas cylinders.

5. The gas demand prediction system according to claim 1, wherein, when the plurality of supply facilities is equipped with a plurality of gas cylinders belonged to a plurality of customers in a concentrated manner, the prediction unit is configured to predict the gas usages and remaining gas amounts of all the corresponding customers within the supply facilities on a basis of a sum of the gas usages of the respective customers in the supply facilities.

6. A gas demand prediction method of causing a computer to predict gas usages in a plurality of supply facilities, the computer comprising a storage unit configured to store one or more areas in which the plurality of supply facilities are respectively located, the method comprising the steps of:

receiving respective sets of meter indication data of a plurality of gas meters in the plurality of supply facilities;

storing the respective sets of meter indication data of the plurality of supply facilities in a storage unit;

calculating the gas usage consumed in each of the plurality of supply facilities on a basis of comparison between corresponding sets of meter indication data stored in the storage unit;

calculating a first rate of change in a past gas usage in each of the plurality of supply facilities for the corresponding sets of meter indication data on a basis of comparison between the corresponding sets of meter indication data, and calculating a second rate of change in a past gas usage in the supply facilities located in a same area on a basis of comparison between corresponding sets of meter indication data in the same area stored in the storage unit; and

modifying the calculated gas usage on a basis of the first rate of change in each of the plurality of supply facilities and the second rate of change in the same area as an area in which each of the plurality of supply facilities are located, and predicting the modified gas usage as a prospective gas usage to be consumed in the each of the plurality of supply facilities.

7. A computer readable storage medium storing a program for causing a computer to execute a gas demand prediction method comprising the steps of:

receiving respective sets of meter indication data of a plurality of gas meters in a plurality of supply facilities;

storing the respective sets of meter indication data of the plurality of supply facilities in a storage unit;

calculating the gas usage consumed in each of the plurality of supply facilities on a basis of comparison between corresponding sets of meter indication data stored in the storage unit;

calculating a first rate of change in a past gas usage in each of a plurality of gas cylinders the plurality of supply facilities for the corresponding sets of meter indication data on a basis of comparison between the corresponding sets of meter indication data of the each of the plurality of gas cylinders, and calculating a second rate of change in a past gas usage in the supply facilities located in a same area on a basis of comparison between corresponding sets of meter indication data in the same area stored in the storage unit; and

modifying the calculated gas usage in accordance with on a basis of the first rate of change in each of the plurality of supply facilities and the second rate of change in the same area as an area in which each of the plurality of supply facilities are located, and predicting the modified gas usage as a prospective gas usage to be consumed in the each of the plurality of supply facilities.