Method and system for rating patents and other intangible assets

• US 9,177,349 B2
• Filed: 04/22/2011
• Issued: 11/03/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 09/14/1999
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: PatentRatings, LLC
• Original Assignee: PatentRatings, LLC
• Inventors: Barney, Jonathan A.
• Primary Examiner(s): KINSAUL, DANIEL W
• Application Number:
  US13/092,764
• Publication Number:
  US 20110289096A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,656 Days
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/184 Intellectual property management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 99/00 Subject matter not provided for in other groups of this subclass
• CPC Class Codes: Y10S 707/93 intellectual property analysis
• CPC Class Codes: Y10S 707/99936 Pattern matching access
• CPC Class Codes: Y10S 707/99937 Sorting

Abstract

A statistical patent rating method and system is provided for independently assessing the relative breadth (“B”), defensibility (“D”) and commercial relevance (“R”) of individual patent assets and other intangible intellectual property assets. The invention provides new and valuable information that can be used by patent valuation experts, investment advisors, economists and others to help guide future patent investment decisions, licensing programs, patent appraisals, tax valuations, transfer pricing, economic forecasting and planning, and even mediation and/or settlement of patent litigation lawsuits. In one embodiment the invention provides a statistically-based patent rating method and system whereby relative ratings or rankings are generated using a database of patent information by identifying and comparing various characteristics of each individual patent to a statistically determined distribution of the same characteristics within a given patent population. For example, a first population of patents having a known relatively high intrinsic value or quality (e.g. successfully litigated patents) is compared to a second population of patents having a known relatively low intrinsic value or quality (e.g. unsuccessfully litigated patents). Based on a statistical comparison of the two populations, certain characteristics are identified as being more prevalent or more pronounced in one population group or the other to a statistically significant degree. Multiple such statistical comparisons are used to construct and optimize a computer model or computer algorithm that can then be used to predict and/or provide statistically-accurate probabilities of a desired value or quality being present or a future event occurring, given the identified characteristics of an individual patent or group of patents.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for dynamically linking a third-party web page to a dynamically updateable Internet-accessible report estimating a value or value range for a particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest related to a commercial product associated with the third-party web page, the computer-implemented method comprising:

repeatedly monitoring, by an automated web crawler, a plurality of third-party web pages associated with commercial products;

analyzing data accessed by the automated web crawler to determine associations between the commercial products and intellectual property assets;

storing in an electronic database URL address data that links the intellectual property assets with third-party web pages having commercial products determined to be associated with the intellectual property assets;

storing a first series of data comprising selected metrics quantifying certain selected characteristics of a first population of maintainable intellectual property assets for which maintenance fee payments have been made;

storing a second series of data comprising selected metrics quantifying said selected characteristics of a second population of maintainable intellectual property assets for which maintenance fee payments have not been made;

constructing, by a computer system comprising one or more hardware processors, a predictive model based on said stored first and second series of data, said predictive model being operable to generate an estimated ex ante probability that is predictive of the maintenance fee payment having either been paid or not paid relative to each intellectual property asset in said first or second populations of maintainable intellectual property assets;

providing as input to said predictive model a third series of data comprising selected metrics quantifying said selected characteristics of said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest and operating said predictive model, by the computer system, to calculate an estimated probability of a maintenance fee payment being made in the future relative to said identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest;

estimating a value distribution curve, the shape of the curve generally representing an approximated or assumed distribution of value by percentile rankings within a selected population of maintainable intellectual property assets;

using said value distribution curve to estimate a value or value range for said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest based at least in part on a percentile ranking derived from said estimated probability of said maintenance fee either being paid or not being paid in the future relative to said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest; and

displaying or causing to be displayed via a graphical user interface of an Internet web browser a dynamically updateable interactive report, the interactive report comprising an indication of the estimated value or value range for said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest, the interactive report further comprising a clickable hyperlink generated based on the stored URL address data, the clickable hyperlink configured to cause the graphical user interface of the Internet web browser to display a third-party web page associated with a commercial product related to said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein said first and second populations of maintainable intellectual property assets comprise selected samples of issued U.S. patents and wherein said maintenance fee payment comprises payment of the first scheduled maintenance fee for each said maintainable intellectual property asset.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein said first and second populations of maintainable intellectual property assets have roughly the same population size.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein said selected metrics comprise one or more characteristics of each said maintainable intellectual property asset in said first and second populations of maintainable intellectual property assets that are determined or assumed to have either a positive or negative correlation with the payment or non-payment of said maintenance fee.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein said predictive model comprises a multiple regression model that correlates multiple individual predictor variables comprising said selected metrics to a single criterion variable comprising the payment or non-payment of said maintenance fee.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 5 wherein said multiple regression model has the form:

CV_m=f{PV₁,PV₂ . . . PV_n}

where;

CV_m=criterion variable

PV_n=predictor variables.

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 comprising the further step of automatically generating a maintenance probability report for said identified selected maintainable intellectual property asset of interest, said report including basic information identifying said selected maintainable intellectual property asset of interest and said estimated probability of said maintenance fee being paid or not being paid within a predetermined period of time in the future.

8. A maintenance probability report generated according to the method of claim 7.

9. A system comprising:

an electronic data store configured to at least store data associated with maintainable intellectual property assets; and

a computing system comprising one or more hardware computing devices, said computing system in communication with the electronic data store and configured to at least;

repeatedly monitor, by an automated web crawler, a plurality of third-party web pages associated with commercial products;

analyze data accessed by the automated web crawler to determine associations between the commercial products and intellectual property assets;

store, in the electronic data store, URL address data that links the intellectual property assets with third-party web pages having commercial products determined to be associated with the intellectual property assets;

store, in the electronic data store, a first series of data comprising selected metrics quantifying certain selected characteristics of a first population of maintainable intellectual property assets for which maintenance fee payments have been made;

store, in the electronic data store, a second series of data comprising selected metrics quantifying said selected characteristics of a second population of maintainable intellectual property assets for which maintenance fee payments have not been made;

construct a predictive model based on said stored first and second series of data, said predictive model being operable to generate an estimated ex ante probability that is predictive of the maintenance fee payment having either been paid or not paid relative to each intellectual property asset in said first or second populations of maintainable intellectual property assets;

provide as input to said predictive model a third series of data comprising selected metrics quantifying said selected characteristics of said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest and operating said predictive model, by the computer system, to calculate an estimated probability of a maintenance fee payment being made in the future relative to said identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest;

estimate a value distribution curve, the shape of the curve generally representing an approximated or assumed distribution of value by percentile rankings within a selected population of maintainable intellectual property assets;

use said value distribution curve to estimate a value or value range for said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest based at least in part on a percentile ranking derived from said estimated probability of said maintenance fee either being paid or not being paid in the future relative to said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest; and

display or cause to be displayed via a graphical user interface of an Internet web browser a dynamically updateable interactive report, the interactive report comprising an indication of the estimated value or value range for said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest, the interactive report further comprising a clickable hyperlink generated based on the stored URL address data, the clickable hyperlink configured to cause the graphical user interface of the Internet web browser to display a third-party web page associated with a commercial product related to said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest.

10. The system of claim 9 wherein said first and second populations of maintainable intellectual property assets comprise selected samples of issued U.S. patents and wherein said maintenance fee payment comprises payment of the first scheduled maintenance fee for each said maintainable intellectual property asset.

11. The system of claim 9 wherein said first and second populations of maintainable intellectual property assets have roughly the same population size.

12. The system of claim 9 wherein said selected metrics comprise one or more characteristics of each said maintainable intellectual property asset in said first and second populations of maintainable intellectual property assets that are determined or assumed to have either a positive or negative correlation with the payment or non-payment of said maintenance fee.

13. The system of claim 9 wherein said predictive model comprises a multiple regression model that correlates multiple individual predictor variables comprising said selected metrics to a single criterion variable comprising the payment or non-payment of said maintenance fee.

14. The system of claim 13 wherein said multiple regression model has the form:

CV_m=f{PV₁,PV₂ . . . PV_n}

where;

CV_m=criterion variable

PV_n=predictor variables.

15. The system of claim 9, wherein the computing system is further configured to automatically generate a maintenance probability report for said identified selected maintainable intellectual property asset of interest, said report including basic information identifying said selected maintainable intellectual property asset of interest and said estimated probability of said maintenance fee being paid or not being paid within a predetermined period of time in the future.

16. Non-transitory physical computer storage comprising computer-executable instructions stored thereon that, when executed by a hardware processor, are configured to perform a method for dynamically linking a third-party web page to a dynamically updateable Internet-accessible report estimating a value or value range for a particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest related to a commercial product associated with the third-party web page, the method comprising:

repeatedly monitoring, by an automated web crawler, a plurality of third-party web pages associated with commercial products;

analyzing data accessed by the automated web crawler to determine associations between the commercial products and intellectual property assets;

storing in an electronic database URL address data that links the intellectual property assets with third-party web pages having commercial products determined to be associated with the intellectual property assets;

storing a first series of data comprising selected metrics quantifying certain selected characteristics of a first population of maintainable intellectual property assets for which maintenance fee payments have been made;

storing a second series of data comprising selected metrics quantifying said selected characteristics of a second population of maintainable intellectual property assets for which maintenance fee payments have not been made;

constructing a predictive model based on said stored first and second series of data, said predictive model being operable to generate an estimated ex ante probability that is predictive of the maintenance fee payment having either been paid or not paid relative to each intellectual property asset in said first or second populations of maintainable intellectual property assets;

providing as input to said predictive model a third series of data comprising selected metrics quantifying said selected characteristics of said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest and operating said predictive model, by the computer system, to calculate an estimated probability of a maintenance fee payment being made in the future relative to said identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest;

estimating a value distribution curve, the shape of the curve generally representing an approximated or assumed distribution of value by percentile rankings within a selected population of maintainable intellectual property assets;

using said value distribution curve to estimate a value or value range for said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest based at least in part on a percentile ranking derived from said estimated probability of said maintenance fee either being paid or not being paid in the future relative to said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest; and

displaying or causing to be displayed via a graphical user interface of an Internet web browser a dynamically updateable interactive report, the interactive report comprising an indication of the estimated value or value range for said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest, the interactive report further comprising a clickable hyperlink generated based on the stored URL address data, the clickable hyperlink configured to cause the graphical user interface of the Internet web browser to display a third-party web page associated with a commercial product related to said particular identified maintainable intellectual property asset of interest.

17. The non-transitory physical computer storage of claim 16, wherein said first and second populations of maintainable intellectual property assets comprise selected samples of issued U.S. patents and wherein said maintenance fee payment comprises payment of the first scheduled maintenance fee for each said maintainable intellectual property asset.

18. The non-transitory physical computer storage of claim 16, wherein said first and second populations of maintainable intellectual property assets have roughly the same population size.

19. The non-transitory physical computer storage of claim 16, wherein said selected metrics comprise one or more characteristics of each said maintainable intellectual property asset in said first and second populations of maintainable intellectual property assets that are determined or assumed to have either a positive or negative correlation with the payment or non-payment of said maintenance fee.

20. The non-transitory physical computer storage of claim 16, wherein said predictive model comprises a multiple regression model that correlates multiple individual predictor variables comprising said selected metrics to a single criterion variable comprising the payment or non-payment of said maintenance fee.

21. The non-transitory physical computer storage of claim 20, wherein said multiple regression model has the form:

CV_m=f{PV₁,PV₂ . . . PV_n}

where;

CV_m=criterion variable

PV_n=predictor variables.

22. The non-transitory physical computer storage of claim 16, the method further comprising:

automatically generating a maintenance probability report for said identified selected maintainable intellectual property asset of interest, said report including basic information identifying said selected maintainable intellectual property asset of interest and said estimated probability of said maintenance fee being paid or not being paid within a predetermined period of time in the future.