Vehicle arrival prediction using multiple data sources including passenger bus arrival prediction

• US 9,177,473 B2
• Filed: 07/07/2010
• Issued: 11/03/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 07/07/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Min, Wanli, Wynter, Laura
• Primary Examiner(s): To, Tuan C.
• Assistant Examiner(s): Kan, Yuri
• Application Number:
  US12/831,785
• Publication Number:
  US 20120010803A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,945 Days
• Field of Search: 701/117, 701/118, 701/532, 701/5, 705/5, 703/20, 340/932.2, 244/3.1, 455/423
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/123 indicating the position of vehicles, e.g. scheduled vehicles; Managing passenger vehicles circulating according to a fixed timetable, e.g. buses, trains, tramstransmission of navigation instructions to vehicles G08G1/0968

Abstract

A system, method and computer program product for estimating a vehicle arrival time. The system receives information representing prior travel times of vehicles between pre-determined vehicle stops along a vehicle route. The system receives real-time data representing a current journey. The current journey refers to a movement of a vehicle currently traveling along the route. The system calculates a regular trend representing the current journey based on the received prior travel times information and the received real-time data. The system computes a deviation from the regular trend in the current journey. The system determines a future traffic status in subsequent vehicle stops in the current journey. The system estimates, for the vehicle, each arrival time of each subsequent vehicle stop based on the calculated regular trend, the computed deviation and the determined future traffic status.

Claims

1. A method for determining a vehicle arrival time at a stop location along a vehicle route having multiple stop locations, the method comprising:

receiving information representing prior travel times of vehicles between vehicle stops along a vehicle route, each of said prior travel times occurring on a different travel date;

receiving real-time data representing a current journey, the current journey referring to a movement of a vehicle currently traveling along the route and the current journey comprising one or more subsequent vehicle stops of varying lengths, the current journey having a current date;

weighting the received information for each prior travel time based on a function of the travel time from a prior travel date and the current date to obtain a weight of prior travel time;

calculating a regular trend representing the current journey based on the received prior travel times information and the received real-time data, said calculating performed by summing, for each of the prior travel times, a product of the weight of the prior travel time and a slope representing an average vehicle travel speed for the corresponding prior travel time;

computing a deviation from the regular trend in the current journey, said computing performed by summing, for the prior travel times, a product of the weight of the prior travel time and a deviation of the corresponding prior travel time;

determining a future traffic status in the one or more subsequent vehicle stops in the current journey; and

estimating, for the vehicle, each arrival time at each subsequent vehicle stop weighted based on the varying length and further based on the calculated regular trend, the computed deviation and the determined future traffic status, and determining a whole estimated arrival time in the current journey based on the estimated arrival times at each subsequent vehicle stop;

computing a deviation from the whole estimated arrival time in the current journey;

computing a deviation from the determined future traffic status in the current journey;

correlating the deviation from the whole estimated arrival time with the deviation from the future traffic status;

updating the whole estimated arrival time based on the deviation from the whole estimated arrival time, the deviation from the future traffic status, and the correlation,

wherein at least one processor in a computing system performs one or more of;

the receiving, the calculating, the computing the deviation from the regular trend, the determining, the estimating, the computing the deviation from the estimated arrival time, the computing the deviation from the future traffic status, the correlating, and the updating.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the regular trend comprises:

performing a trend analysis or clustering on the received prior travel times information and the received real-time data.

3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the computing the deviation comprises:

performing a regression analysis on the received prior travel times information and the received real-time data.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the determining the future traffic status comprises:

obtaining future traffic condition information of the subsequent vehicle stops from a traffic prediction tool, the future traffic condition information of the subsequent vehicle stops being integrated in the estimated arrival time.

5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the receiving the real-time data includes:

using a GPS (Global Positioning System) device.

6. The method according to claim 5, wherein if the GPS device is not available to send the real-time data to the computing system for a certain period of time, a GPS simulator emulates the real-time data and sends the emulated real-time data to the computing system.

7. The method according to claim 6, wherein the GPS simulator performs steps of:

representing the current journey in a time series;

fitting the time series into a model;

obtaining, from the model, a basis function and weights associated with the basis function; and

predicting the real-time data based on the basis function and the weights.

8. The method according to claim 7, wherein the model is a smooth curve model or a linear model.

9. The method according to claim 7, wherein if the GPS device becomes unavailable after sending partial real-time data to the computing system, the GPS simulator further performs:

updating the weights of the basis function based on the partial real-time data from the GPS device.

10. The method according to claim 9, wherein the GPS simulator further performs:

predicting, based on the updated weights and the basis function, a distance from a departure at the subsequent time points after a last time point when the GPS device sent the partial real-time data.

11. The method according to claim 10, further comprising:

predicting a vehicle arrival time at each subsequent stop based on the predicted distance, the updated weight, and the basis function.

12. The method according to claim 11, wherein the predicting the vehicle arrival time uses a binary search algorithm.

13. The method according to claim 12, further comprising:

combining the estimated arrival time and the predicted arrival time using a linear combination.

24. The method according to claim 1, wherein a larger weight is given to prior journeys whose travel dates are closer to the current date, and a smaller weight is given to a prior journey whose travel dates are further away from the time of the current date.

25. The method according to claim 1, wherein said estimating, for the vehicle, an arrival time at a subsequent vehicle stop comprises calculating:

A_p=A_r+S_predict*D_rp+R^p_predict−

R^r_predict,

where A_p represents an updated estimate arrival time, A_r represents a bus arrival time at a reference vehicle stop, D_rp represents a distance from the reference bus stop to the subsequent vehicle stop, R^p_predict represents the computed deviation from the regular trend of the current journey, R^r_predict represents a deviation for the current trip at a reference time point location, S_predict represents an estimated slope for the current journey and is calculated by the summing the product the slopes for prior journeys and corresponding weights of the prior journey'"'"'s slopes.

26. The method according to claim 1, wherein said updating the whole estimated arrival time based on the deviation from the whole estimated arrival time, the deviation from the future traffic status, and the correlation comprises calculating a time duration A^c,c+h between a vehicle arrival time at a current bus stop c and a subsequent vehicle stop c+h defining a vehicle route segment according to:

14. A system for determining a vehicle arrival time at a stop location along a vehicle route having multiple stop locations, the system comprising:

a memory device; and

a processor being connected to the memory device,

wherein the processor performs steps of;

receiving information representing prior travel times of vehicles between vehicle stops along a vehicle route, each of said prior travel times occurring on a different travel date;

receiving real-time data representing a current journey, the current journey referring to a movement of a vehicle currently traveling along the route and the current journey comprising one or more subsequent vehicle stops of varying lengths, the current journey having a current date;

weighting the received information for each prior travel time based on a function of the travel time from a prior travel date and the current date to obtain a weight of prior travel time;

calculating a regular trend representing the current journey based on the received prior travel times information and the received real-time data, said calculating performed by summing, for each of the prior travel times, a product of the weight of the prior travel time and a slope representing an average vehicle travel speed for the corresponding prior travel time;

computing a deviation from the regular trend in the current journey, said computing performed by summing, for the prior travel times, a product of the weight of the prior travel time and a deviation of the corresponding prior travel time;

determining a future traffic status in the one or more subsequent vehicle stops in the current journey; and

estimating, for the vehicle, each arrival time at each subsequent vehicle stop weighted based on the varying length and further based on the calculated regular trend, the computed deviation and the determined future traffic status, and determining a whole estimated arrival time in the current journey based on the estimated arrival times at each subsequent vehicle stop;

computing a deviation from the whole estimated arrival time in the current journey;

computing a deviation from the determined future traffic status in the current journey;

correlating the deviation from the whole estimated arrival time with the deviation from the future traffic status;

updating the whole estimated arrival time based on the deviation from the whole estimated arrival time, the deviation from the future traffic status, and the correlation.

15. The system according to claim 14, wherein to calculate the regular trend, the processor performs a trend analysis or clustering on the received prior travel times information and the received real-time data.

16. The system according to claim 14, wherein to compute the deviation, the processor performs a regression analysis on the received prior travel times information and the received real-time data.

17. The system according to claim 14, further comprising:

a traffic prediction tool for obtaining future traffic condition information of the subsequent vehicle stops, wherein the processor integrates the future traffic condition information of the subsequent vehicle stops into the estimated arrival time.

18. The system according to claim 14, wherein the processor receives the real-time data from GPS device or GPS simulator.

19. The system according to claim 18, wherein the GPS simulator performs steps of:

representing the current journey in a time series;

fitting the time series into a model;

obtaining, from the model, a basis function and weights associated with the basis function; and

predicting the real-time data based on the basis function and the weights.

20. The system according to claim 19, wherein if the GPS device becomes unavailable after sending partial real-time data to the computing system, the GPS simulator updates the weights of the basis function based on the partial real-time data from the GPS device.

21. The system according to claim 20, wherein the GPS simulator further performs:

predicting, based on the updated weights and the basis function, a distance from a departure at the subsequent time points after a last time point when the GPS device sent the partial real-time data.

22. A computer program product for determining a vehicle arrival time at a stop location along a vehicle route having multiple stop locations, the computer program product comprising a storage medium readable by a processing circuit and storing instructions run by the processing circuit for performing a method, the method comprising:

receiving information representing prior travel times of vehicles between vehicle stops along a vehicle route, each of said prior travel times occurring on a different travel date;

receiving real-time data representing a current journey, the current journey referring to a movement of a vehicle currently traveling along the route and the current journey comprising one or more subsequent vehicle stops of varying lengths, the current journey having a current date;

weighting the received information for each prior travel time based on a function of the travel time from a prior travel date and the current date to obtain a weight of prior travel time;

calculating a regular trend representing the current journey based on the received prior travel times information and the received real-time data, said calculating performed by summing, for each of the prior travel times, a product of the weight of the prior travel time and a slope representing an average vehicle travel speed for the corresponding prior travel time;

computing a deviation from the regular trend in the current journey, said computing performed by summing, for the prior travel times, a product of the weight of the prior travel time and a deviation of the corresponding prior travel time;

determining a future traffic status in the one or more subsequent vehicle stops in the current journey; and

estimating, for the vehicle, each arrival time at each subsequent vehicle stop weighted based on the varying length and further based on the calculated regular trend, the computed deviation and the determined future traffic status, and determining a whole estimated arrival time in the current journey based on the estimated arrival times at each subsequent vehicle stop;

computing a deviation from the estimated arrival time in the current journey;

computing a deviation from the determined future traffic status in the current journey;

correlating the deviation from the whole estimated arrival time with the deviation from the future traffic status;

updating the whole estimated arrival time based on the deviation from the whole estimated arrival time, the deviation from the future traffic status, and the correlation.

23. The computer program product according to claim 22, wherein the real-time data is provided from a GPS device or GPS simulator, the GPS simulator performs steps of:

representing the current journey in a time series;

fitting the time series into a model;

obtaining, from the model, a basis function and weights associated with the basis function; and

predicting the real-time data based on the basis function and the weights.