Systems and methods for drilling fluids expert systems using bayesian decision networks

• US 9,202,169 B2
• Filed: 03/14/2013
• Issued: 12/01/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 11/02/2012
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Government of Saudi Arabia), Texas A&M University System
• Original Assignee: Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Government of Saudi Arabia), Texas A&M University System
• Inventors: Al-Yami, Abdullah Saleh Hussain, Schubert, Jerome
• Primary Examiner(s): Vincent, David
• Assistant Examiner(s): Chubb, Mikayla
• Application Number:
  US13/827,408
• Publication Number:
  US 20140129486A1
• Time in Patent Office: 992 Days
• Field of Search: None
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/02 Knowledge representation; Symbolic representation
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks

Abstract

Provided are systems and methods for drilling fluids expert systems using Bayesian decision networks to determine drilling fluid recommendations. A drilling fluids expert system includes a drilling fluids Bayesian decision network (BDN) model that receives inputs and outputs recommendations based on Bayesian probability determinations. The drilling fluids BDN model includes a temperature ranges uncertainty node, a formation uncertainty node, a potential hole problems uncertainty node, and a drilling fluids decision node.

Claims

1. A system, comprising

one or more processors;

a non-transitory tangible computer-readable memory, the memory comprising;

a drilling fluids expert system executable by the one or more processors and configured to provide one or more drilling fluids recommendations based on one or more inputs, the drilling fluids expert system comprising a drilling fluids Bayesian decision network (BDN) model, the drilling fluids BDN model comprising

a temperature ranges uncertainty node configured to receive one or more temperature ranges from the one or more inputs, each of the one or more temperature ranges associated with a respective one or more temperature range probabilities;

a formations uncertainty node configured to receive one or more formations from the one or more inputs, each of the one or more formations associated with a respective one or more formation probabilities;

a potential hole problems uncertainty node dependent on the formations uncertainty node and configured to receive one or more potential hole problems from the one or more inputs and the one or more formation probabilities, each of the one or more potential hole problems associated with a respective one or more potential hole problem probabilities;

a drilling fluids decision node configured to receive one or more drilling fluids from the one or more inputs; and

a consequences node dependent on the temperature ranges uncertainty node, the potential hole problems uncertainty node, and the drilling fluids decision node and configured to output the one or more drilling fluids recommendations based on one or more Bayesian probabilities calculated from the one or more temperature ranges and the one more temperature range probabilities, the one or more potential hole problems and the one or more potential hole problem probabilities, and the one or more drilling fluids.

2. The system of claim 1, comprising a user interface configured to display the drilling fluids BDN model and receive user selections of the one or more input.

3. The system of claim 1, wherein the one or more temperature ranges, the one or more formations, and the one or more potential hole problems are each associated with a respective plurality of probabilities.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein the respective plurality of probabilities is obtained from an expert date data repository storing expert data.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein the one or more drilling fluids recommendations comprise one or more drilling fluid formulations.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein the one or more drilling fluids recommendations comprises one or more expected utilities for the one or more drilling fluid formations.

7. The system of claim 1, wherein the one or more expected utilities are provided in a table displayed to the user in the user interface, the table comprising the one or more drilling fluid formulations and the expected utility value for each of the one or more drilling fluid formulations.

8. The system of claim 1, wherein the one or more formations comprise at least one of:

formation names, formation lithologies, formation types, or any combination thereof.

9. A computer-implemented method for a drilling fluids expert system having a drilling fluids Bayesian decision network (BDN) model, the method comprising:

receiving, at one or more processors, one or more inputs;

providing, by one or more processors, the one or more inputs to one or more nodes of the drilling fluids BDN model, the one or more nodes comprising;

a temperature ranges uncertainty node configured to receive one or more temperature ranges from the one or more inputs, each of the one or more temperature ranges associated with a respective one or more temperature range probabilities;

a formations uncertainty node configured to receive one or more formations from the one or more inputs each of the one or more formations associated with a respective one or more formation probabilities;

a potential hole problems uncertainty node dependent on the formations uncertainty node and configured to receive one or more potential hole problems from the one or more inputs and the one or more formation probabilities, each of the one or more potential hole problems associated with a respective one or more potential hole problem probabilities;

a drilling fluids decision node; and

a consequences node dependent on the temperature ranges uncertainty node, the potential hole problems uncertainty node, and the drilling fluids decision node;

determining, at one or more processors, one or more drilling fluids recommendations at the consequences node of the drilling fluids BDN model, the determination comprising a calculation of one or more Bayesian probabilities based on the one or more inputs; and

providing, by one or more processors, the one or more drilling fluids recommendations to a user.

10. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein providing the one or more drilling fluid recommendations to a user comprises displaying, by one or more processors, the one or more drilling fluid recommendations in a user interface element of a user interface configured to display the drilling fluids BDN model.

11. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein receiving one or inputs comprises receiving, at one or more processors, a user selection for the temperature ranges uncertainty node, a user selection for the formations uncertainty node, a user selection for the potential hole problems uncertainty node, or a combination thereof.

12. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein the one or more drilling fluids recommendations comprise one or more drilling fluid formulations.

13. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein the one or more drilling fluids recommendations comprises one or more expected utilities for the one or more drilling fluid formations.

14. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein providing the one or more drilling fluids recommendations to a user comprises providing, by one or more processors, a table displayed to the user in the user interface, the table comprising the one or more drilling fluid formulations and the expected utility value for each of the one or more drilling fluid formulations.

15. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein the one or more formations comprise at least one of:

formation names, formation lithologies, formation types, or any combination thereof.

16. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein the one or more inputs provided to the temperature ranges uncertainty node, the formations uncertainty node, and the potential hole problems uncertainty node, are associated with a respective plurality of probabilities.

17. The computer-implemented method of claim 16, comprising associating, by one or more processors, the respective plurality of probabilities based on a user selection of the one or more inputs.

18. A computer-implemented method of determining a drilling fluid formulation for a drilling system, the method comprising:

receiving, at one or more processors, an input from a user, the input comprising a temperature range, a formation, a potential hole problem, or any combination thereof;

providing, by one or more processors, the input to a drilling fluids Bayesian decision network (BDN) model configured to receive one or more drilling fluid formulations;

determining, by one or more processors, an expected utility value for the one or more drilling fluid formulations based on the input, the determination comprising a calculation of one or more Bayesian probabilities for the one or more drilling fluid formulations based on the input; and

providing, by one or more processors, an output from the drilling fluids BDN model, the output comprising one or more recommended drilling fluid formulations selected from the one or more drilling fluid formulations.

19. The computer-implemented method of claim 18, comprising displaying, by one or more processors, a plurality of temperature ranges, a plurality of formations, a plurality of potential hole problems or a combination there of in a user interface element displayed to the user.

20. The computer-implemented method of claim 19, wherein providing, by one or more processors, the output from the drilling fluids BDN model comprises providing a table displayed to the user in the user interface, the table comprising the one or more drilling fluid formulations and the expected utility value for each of the one or more drilling fluid formulations.