Quantifying the quality of trend lines

• US 9,218,582 B2
• Filed: 02/07/2013
• Issued: 12/22/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 02/07/2013
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Engel, Carl, Gifford, Wesley M., Rahenkamp, Craig A., Ratakonda, Krishna, Zhou, Nianjun
• Primary Examiner(s): Koneru, Sujay
• Application Number:
  US13/761,639
• Publication Number:
  US 20140222488A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,048 Days
• Field of Search: 705 711- 742
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0631 Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06313 Resource planning in a project environment

Abstract

Techniques for quantifying the quality of trend lines. A method includes defining a collection of reference data sets derived from multiple historical projects in a similar subject area as the target project, defining one or more indicators of data set applicability to a target project estimation, said defining based on multiple characteristics of the target project, evaluating applicability of each of the reference data sets based on the one or more indicators, and identifying one or more of the reference data sets as applicable for use in the target project estimation.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating applicability of a data set for a target project estimation, the method comprising:

defining a collection of reference data sets derived from multiple historical projects in a similar subject area as the target project;

defining multiple indicators of data set applicability to a target project estimation, wherein each of said multiple indicators is based on a characteristic specific to the target project, and wherein the multiple indicators comprise;

a degree of coherence of target project environment variables across the multiple historical projects;

a degree of evenness of project size distribution across the multiple historical projects;

a degree of uncertainty attributed to of each of the reference data sets; and

a sufficiency of a total number of historical projects in each of the reference data sets determined by comparing a number of historical projects in each reference data set to a threshold number of historical projects;

determining a set of governance rules to be associated with the multiple indicators to determine relevance of historical projects in each of the reference data sets to the target project estimation, wherein said set of governance rules comprises (i) one or more rules derived from characteristics of the target project and (ii) one or more rules based on characteristics of an execution environment for which the target project estimation is to be carried out, wherein said determining comprises;

establishing a communicative link between a project plan database and a project characteristic extraction module executing on a hardware processor of the computing device;

extracting multiple characteristics of the target project from the project plan database via the project characteristic extraction module; and

selecting the set of governance rules from the project plan database based on (i) characteristics of the execution environment for which the target project estimation is to be carried out (ii) the multiple extracted characteristics of the target project, wherein said selecting is carried out by a rule selection module executing on the hardware processor of the computing device and communicatively linked to the project plan database and the project characteristic extraction module;

evaluating applicability of each of the reference data sets to the target project by ill applying the set of governance rules and (ii) determining an alignment of each of the reference data sets to each of the multiple indicators, wherein said evaluating is carried out by an evaluation module executing on the hardware processor of the computing device and communicatively linked to the collection of reference data sets and the rule selection module; and

identifying one or more of the reference data sets as applicable for use in the target project estimation.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein said defining a collection of reference data sets comprises determining sufficiency for one or more historical projects for inclusion in the collection of reference data sets.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein said defining said multiple indicators comprises extracting project characteristics from a database.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein said defining said multiple indicators comprises incorporating input from an estimator component and/or a subject matter expert.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein said input comprises information pertaining to one or more aspects of a domain relevant to the target project.

6. The method of claim 1, comprising:

defining a metric in connection with the multiple indicators.

7. The method of claim 1, comprising:

determining a measure of uncertainty for each of the reference data sets.

8. The method of claim 7, comprising:

displaying the one or more applicable reference data sets with the one or more corresponding measures of uncertainty to a user.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein said displaying comprises implementation of a color-coding scheme for depicting the one or more applicable reference data sets in light of the one or more corresponding measures of uncertainty.

10. The method of claim 1, comprising:

storing the one or more reference data sets identified as applicable for use in the target project estimation in a database.

11. The method of claim 1, comprising:

performing the target project estimation based on the one or more reference data sets identified as applicable.

12. The method of claim 1, wherein said target project environment variables comprise one or more of industry, country, and primary language.

13. The method of claim 1, wherein rules based on characteristics of the target project comprise:

a rule matching a size-counting method;

a rule matching project size; and

a rule matching development environment and language.

14. The method of claim 1, wherein rules based on characteristics of the execution environment comprise:

a rule based on project duration;

a rule based on project resources; and

a rule based on project scope.