Recommendations for time to replace parts on machines

• US 9,218,694 B1
• Filed: 08/12/2013
• Issued: 12/22/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 08/12/2013
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Original Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Inventors: Kipersztok, Oscar, Nodelman, Uri, Swayne, Michael
• Primary Examiner(s): Olszewski, John R
• Assistant Examiner(s): Foster, Gerrad A
• Application Number:
  US13/964,277
• Time in Patent Office: 862 Days
• Field of Search: None
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 2219/2637 Vehicle, car, auto, wheelchair
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/0283 Predictive maintenance, e.g. involving the monitoring of a system and, based on the monitoring results, taking decisions on the maintenance schedule of the monitored system; Estimating remaining useful life [RUL] preventive maintenance, i.e. planning maintenance according to the available resources without monitoring the system G06Q10/06
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/20 Administration of product repair or maintenance
• CPC Class Codes: G07C 5/006 Indicating maintenance
• CPC Class Codes: G07C 5/0808 Diagnosing performance data testing of vehicles G01M17/00; testing of electrical installation on vehicles G01R31/005

Abstract

Systems and methods of recommending replacement of parts on machines. In one embodiment, a method of recommending replacement includes receiving data for a part type, determining a cumulative probability function for an infant mortality of the part type, and determining a cumulative probability function for a natural life of the part type. The method includes defining a lower time boundary and an upper time boundary between which the part type is considered operative. The lower time boundary is defined at a time point at an intersection between the cumulative probability function for the infant mortality and the cumulative probability function for the natural life of the part type. The upper time boundary is defined at a time point representing an estimated end of an operative life of the part type. Recommending replacement of a part on a machine may then be determined based on the upper and lower time boundaries.

Claims

1. A method of recommending replacement of parts, the method comprising:

receiving, at a data interface of a recommendation system, data for a part indicating durations of time in which the part was installed on machines before replacement;

determining, by a controller of the recommendation system, a first probability density function over time for an infant mortality of the part based on the data;

determining, by the controller, a second probability density function over time for a natural life of the part based on the data;

determining, by the controller, a first cumulative probability function for the infant mortality of the part by integrating the first probability density function for the infant mortality of the part over a time period;

determining, by the controller, a second cumulative probability function for the natural life of the part by integrating the second probability density function for the natural life of the part over the time period;

defining, by the controller, a lower time boundary and an upper time boundary between which the part is considered operative, wherein the lower time boundary is defined at a first time point at an intersection between the first cumulative probability function for the infant mortality of the part and the second cumulative probability function for the natural life of the part, and the upper time boundary is defined at a second time point representing an estimated end of an operative life of the part;

for a suspect part that is installed on a machine;

receiving, at a user interface of the recommendation system, an indication of a length of time that the suspect part is installed on the machine; and

recommending replacement of the suspect part if the length of time that the suspect part is installed on the machine is less than the lower time boundary or greater than the upper time boundary by displaying the recommendation at the user interface.

2. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

recommending that the suspect part remains installed on the machine if the length of time that the suspect part is installed on the machine is between the lower time boundary and the upper time boundary by displaying the recommendation at the user interface.

3. The method of claim 2 wherein receiving an indication of a length of time that the suspect part is installed on the machine comprises:

receiving a last replacement date for the suspect part at the user interface.

4. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

receiving additional data regarding replacements of the part where no defect was found; and

adjusting the probability density function for the infant mortality of the part based on the additional data.

5. The method of claim 1 wherein:

the infant mortality for the part represents defective parts and non-defective parts that were replaced before failure.

6. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

defining a second upper time boundary, wherein the second upper time boundary is defined at a third time point beyond the estimated end of the operative life of the part.

7. The method of claim 1 wherein:

the machine comprises an aircraft; and

the part comprises a Line-Replaceable Unit (LRU).

8. An apparatus for recommending replacement of parts, the apparatus comprising:

a recommendation system comprising;

a user interface;

a data interface configured to receive data for a part indicating durations of time in which the part was installed on machines before replacement, wherein the data interface connects to a database that stores historical data for parts installed on the machines;

a controller configured to determine a first probability density function over time for an infant mortality of the part based on the data, to determine a second probability density function over time for a natural life of the part based on the data, to determine a first cumulative probability function for the infant mortality of the part by integrating the first probability density function for the infant mortality of the part over a time period, to determine a second cumulative probability function for the natural life of the part by integrating the second probability density function for the natural life of the part over the time period, and to define a lower time boundary and an upper time boundary between which the part is considered operative, wherein the lower time boundary is defined at a first time point at an intersection between the first cumulative probability function for the infant mortality of the part and the second cumulative probability function for the natural life of the part, and the upper time boundary is defined at a second time point representing an estimated end of an operative life of the part;

for a suspect part that is installed on a machine;

the user interface is configured to receive an indication of a length of time that the suspect part is installed on the machine, and to recommend replacement of the suspect part if the length of time that the suspect part is installed on the machine is less than the lower time boundary or greater than the upper time boundary by displaying the recommendation.

9. The apparatus of claim 8 wherein:

the user interface is configured to recommend that the suspect part remains installed on the machine if the length of time that the suspect part is installed on the machine is between the lower time boundary and the upper time boundary by displaying the recommendation.

10. The apparatus of claim 9 wherein:

the user interface is configured to receive a last replacement date for the suspect part.

11. The apparatus of claim 8 wherein:

the data interface is configured to receive additional data regarding replacements of the part where no defect was found, and to adjust the probability density function for the infant mortality of the part based on the additional data.

12. The apparatus of claim 8 wherein:

the infant mortality for the part represents defective parts and non-defective parts that were replaced before failure.

13. The apparatus of claim 8 wherein:

the controller is configured to define a second upper time boundary, wherein the second upper time boundary is defined at a third time point beyond the estimated end of the operative life of the part.

14. The apparatus of claim 8 wherein:

the machine comprises an aircraft; and

the part comprises a Line-Replaceable Unit (LRU).

15. The apparatus of claim 8 wherein:

the database is maintained by an aircraft manufacturer that is accessible by airlines that purchase aircraft from the manufacturer; and

a maintenance crew provides information about replacement of the part on multiple aircraft to the database.

16. A method of recommending replacement of a Line-Replaceable Unit (LRU) installed on an aircraft, the method comprising:

receiving, at a data interface of a recommendation system, data regarding prior replacements of the LRU on a plurality of aircraft;

determining, at a controller of the recommendation system, a first probability density function over time for an infant mortality of the LRU based on the data;

determining, at the controller, a second probability density function over time for a natural life of the LRU based on the data;

determining, at the controller, a first cumulative probability function for the infant mortality of the LRU by integrating the first probability density function for the infant mortality of the LRU over a time period;

determining, at the controller, a second cumulative probability function for the natural life of the LRU by integrating the second probability density function for the natural life of the LRU over the time period;

defining, at the controller, a lower time boundary and an upper time boundary between which the LRU is considered operative, wherein the lower time boundary is defined at a first time point at an intersection between the first cumulative probability function for the infant mortality of the LRU and the second cumulative probability function for the natural life of the LRU, and the upper time boundary is defined at a second time point representing an estimated end of an operative life of the LRU;

for a target LRU that is installed on the aircraft;

receiving, at a user interface of the recommendation system, an indication of a length of time that the target LRU is installed on the aircraft; and

recommending replacement of the target LRU if the length of time that the target LRU is installed on the aircraft is less than the lower time boundary or greater than the upper time boundary by displaying the recommendation at the user interface.

17. The method of claim 16 further comprising:

recommending that the target LRU remains installed on the aircraft if the length of time that the target LRU is installed on the aircraft is between the lower time boundary and the upper time boundary where the LRU is considered operative by displaying the recommendation at the user interface.

18. The method of claim 17 wherein receiving an indication of a length of time that the target LRU is installed on the aircraft comprises:

receiving a last replacement date for the target LRU at the user interface.

19. The method of claim 16 further comprising:

defining, at the controller, a second upper time boundary, wherein the second upper time boundary is defined at a third time point beyond the estimated end of the operative life of the LRU.

20. A non-transitory computer readable medium embodying programmed instructions which, when executed by a processor, are operable for performing a method of recommending replacement of parts, the method comprising:

receiving data for a part indicating durations of time in which the part was installed on machines before replacement;

determining a first probability density function over time for an infant mortality of the part based on the data;

determining a second probability density function over time for a natural life of the part based on the data;

determining a first cumulative probability function for the infant mortality of the part by integrating the first probability density function for the infant mortality of the part over a time period;

determining a second cumulative probability function for the natural life of the part by integrating the second probability density function for the natural life of the part over the time period;

defining a lower time boundary and an upper time boundary between which the part is considered operative, wherein the lower time boundary is defined at a first time point at an intersection between the first cumulative probability function for the infant mortality of the part and the second cumulative probability function for the natural life of the part, and the upper time boundary is defined at a second time point representing an estimated end of an operative life of the part;

for a suspect part that is installed on the machine;

receiving an indication of a length of time that the suspect part is installed on the machine; and

recommending replacement of the suspect part if the length of time that the suspect part is installed on the machine is less than the lower time boundary or greater than the upper time boundary by displaying a recommendation at a user interface.