Predictive method, apparatus and program product

• US 9,251,543 B2
• Filed: 06/21/2012
• Issued: 02/02/2016
• Est. Priority Date: 06/21/2012
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Christopher Sticht
• Original Assignee: Christopher Sticht
• Inventors: Sticht, Christopher
• Primary Examiner(s): Thangavelu, Kandasamy
• Application Number:
  US13/530,063
• Publication Number:
  US 20130346034A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,321 Days
• Field of Search: 703/2, 700/291, 705/412, 705/36.R, 706/12
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 2203/20 Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/00 Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 60/00 Enabling technologies; Technologies with a potential or indirect contribution to GHG emissions mitigation
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 40/20 Information technology specific aspects, e.g. CAD, simulation, modelling, system security
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/14 Marketing, i.e. market research and analysis, surveying, promotions, advertising, buyer profiling, customer management or rewards

Abstract

Methods, Apparatus and Program Products for predicting resource usage data, weather data and econometric data, such as: demands on resources such as electrical power, water supply, communications infrastructure; temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and degree days; and commodity price, gross domestic product, and a price index.

Claims

1. A method implemented in a computer system having a processor, memory accessible to the processor, and executable program code accessible to the processor, the method comprising:

storing in the memory data defining a plurality of sequential events, each event identified by three coordinate values, the three coordinate values being day of year, hour of day and resource usage;

generating from the stored coordinate values by execution of the program code by the processor a three dimensional topologic surface by plotting the resource usage against the day of the year and the hour of the day in a three dimensional space;

generating by execution of the program code by the processor a polynomial equation defining said topologic surface wherein the polynomial equation expresses the resource usage as a twelfth degree polynomial function of day of year, hour of day with each independent variable having a highest degree of six, said polynomial equation having a set of calculated coefficients; and

storing said coefficients in the memory.

2. A method according to claim 1 wherein said polynomial equation defines said resource usage coordinate value by application of said coefficients to said coordinate values for day of year and time of day.

3. A method according to claim 1 wherein the plurality of sequential events total a number of events in the range of from 8000 to 600000.

4. A method according to claim 1 wherein the data defining said plurality of sequential events is a selected one from a group consisting of resource usage data, weather data and econometric data.

5. A method according to claim 4 wherein said resource usage data is a selected one from a group consisting of electrical load data, water usage data, and communication equipment usage data.

6. A method according to claim 4 wherein said weather data is a selected one from a group consisting of temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and degree days.

7. A method according to claim 4 wherein said econometric data is a selected one from a group consisting of commodity price, gross domestic product, and a price index.

8. An apparatus comprising:

a computer system having a processor and memory accessible to the processor;

executable program code stored in said memory accessibly to the processor; and

data stored in said memory which defines a plurality of sequential events, each event being identified by three coordinate values, the three coordinate values being day of year, hour of day and resource usage;

said program code when executed by the processor;

generating from the stored coordinate values a three dimensional topologic surface by plotting the resource usage against the day of the year and the hour of the day in a three dimensional space;

generating a polynomial equation defining said topologic surface wherein the polynomial equation expresses the resource usage as a twelfth degree polynomial function of day of year, hour of day with each independent variable having a highest degree of six, said polynomial equation having a set of calculated coefficients; and

storing said coefficients in said memory.

9. An apparatus according to claim 8 wherein said polynomial equation defines said resource usage coordinate value by application of said coefficients to said coordinate values for day of year and time of day.

10. An apparatus according to claim 8 wherein the plurality of sequential events total a number of events in the range of from 8000 to 600000.

11. An apparatus according to claim 8 wherein the data defining said plurality of sequential events is a selected one from a group consisting of resource usage data, weather data and econometric data.

12. An apparatus according to claim 11 wherein said resource usage data is a selected one from a group consisting of electrical load data, water usage data, and communication equipment usage data.

13. An apparatus according to claim 11 wherein said weather data is a selected one from a group consisting of temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and degree days.

14. An apparatus according to claim 11 wherein said econometric data is a selected one from a group consisting of commodity price, gross domestic product, and a price index.

15. A program product comprising:

a non-transitory computer readable medium; and

program code stored on said computer readable medium accessibly to a computer system which has a processor, memory accessible to the processor, and data stored in said memory which defines a plurality of sequential events, each event being identified by three coordinate values, the three coordinate values being day of year, hour of day and resource usage;

said program code when accessed by and executed on a computer system;

generating from the stored coordinate values a three dimensional topologic surface by plotting the resource usage against the day of the year and the hour of the day in a three dimensional space;

generating a polynomial equation defining said topologic surface wherein the polynomial equation expresses the resource usage as a twelfth degree polynomial function of day of year, hour of day with each independent variable having a highest degree of six, said polynomial equation having a set of calculated coefficients; and

storing said coefficients in said memory.

16. A program product according to claim 15 wherein said polynomial equation defines said resource usage coordinate value by application of said coefficients to said coordinate values for day of year and time of day.

17. A program product according to claim 15 wherein the plurality of sequential events total a number of events in the range of from 8000 to 600000.

18. A program product according to claim 15 wherein the data defining said plurality of sequential events is a selected one from a group consisting of resource usage data, weather data and econometric data.

19. A program product according to claim 18 wherein said resource usage data is a selected one from a group consisting of electrical load data, water usage data, and communication equipment usage data.

20. A program product according to claim 18 wherein said weather data is a selected one from a group consisting of temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and degree days.

21. A program product according to claim 18 wherein said econometric data is a selected one from a group consisting of commodity price, gross domestic product, and a price index.