Predicting expected road traffic conditions based on historical and current data

• US 9,257,041 B2
• Filed: 04/22/2010
• Issued: 02/09/2016
• Est. Priority Date: 04/22/2009
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Inrix Incorporated
• Original Assignee: Inrix Incorporated
• Inventors: Scofield, Christopher Laurence, Cahn, Robert C., Hersch, Jesse, Stoppler, Wayne, Yakich, Valerie Raybold, Huang, Te-Ming, Barker, Alec
• Primary Examiner(s): Shaawat, Mussa A
• Assistant Examiner(s): KIM, KYUNG J
• Application Number:
  US12/765,742
• Publication Number:
  US 20110106416A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,119 Days
• Field of Search: 701/117, 701/119
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0104 Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions

Abstract

Techniques are described for determining and using information regarding expected road traffic flow conditions information for vehicles traveling on roads. The expected road traffic flow conditions for a particular portion of a road may be generated by combining historical representative information about road traffic flow conditions for that road portion with current information about actual traffic flow on or near that road portion. The combination may, for example, provide benefits for estimating expected traffic flow conditions information for roads with structural flow obstructions that cause reduced traffic flow at certain road locations and times—for example, the expected traffic flow conditions information may be based at least in part on fitting or otherwise adapting partial actual traffic flow information about a vehicle'"'"'s actual travel path to a historical travel profile for a road that includes representative traffic flow information for various combinations of road locations and time periods.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method comprising:

receiving information about prior road traffic flow conditions at multiple prior times for an indicated portion of a road having a plurality of locations, the indicated portion of the road having one or more traffic flow obstructions at one or more of the plurality of locations that reduce traffic flow at those one or more locations;

automatically generating, by one or more programmed computing systems, a historical travel profile of the indicated portion of the road based at least in part on the received information about the prior road traffic flow conditions, the generated historical travel profile indicating differing representative traffic flow conditions for a plurality of distinct combinations of the plurality of locations and of multiple time periods;

obtaining information about an actual travel path of a vehicle that previously passed by the plurality of locations of the indicated portion of the road, the obtained information indicating actual traffic flow conditions of the vehicle at a subset of two or more of the plurality of locations of the indicated portion of the road and not indicating actual traffic flow conditions of the vehicle at other locations of the plurality of locations, wherein the other locations include locations between the two or more locations of the subset that the vehicle passed by without a device associated with the vehicle generating a corresponding data sample;

automatically calculating, by at least one of the programmed computing systems, expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle as it previously passed the other by fitting the actual travel path of the vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions indicated by the generated historical travel profile; and

providing one or more indications of the automatically calculated expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein the indicated portion of the road includes a series of multiple defined road links, wherein the received information about the prior road traffic flow conditions includes a plurality of readings from multiple road traffic sensors that each has a location associated with one of the road links, and wherein each of the readings reports an average speed of traffic on the associated road link for one of the road traffic sensors at one of the prior times.

3. The method of claim 2 wherein the obtained information about the actual travel path of the vehicle includes a plurality of data samples that each reports an actual traffic speed of the vehicle at an indicated time and at an indicated associated road location, the data samples being periodically generated by the device associated with the vehicle, and wherein the indicated associated road locations for the plurality of data samples include the two or more locations of the subset.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein the received information about the prior road traffic flow conditions at the multiple prior times includes a plurality of prior traffic flow values that are each associated with one of the prior times and one of the plurality of locations, and wherein the automatic generating of the historical travel profile of the indicated portion of the road includes:

selecting the multiple time periods for use in aggregating the received information about the prior road traffic conditions, the multiple time periods each being based at least in part on time-of-day information;

determining multiple traffic flow aggregation classifications for which representative traffic flow conditions information will be distinctly represented in the generated historical travel profile, each of the traffic flow aggregation classifications corresponding to one of the plurality of distinct combinations and including at least one of the plurality of locations and one of the time periods; and

for each of the traffic flow aggregation classifications, generating representative traffic flow conditions information that represents prior traffic that occurred at the at least one location for the traffic flow aggregation classification during the one time period for the traffic flow aggregation classification, the generating of the representative traffic flow conditions information being based at least in part on aggregating multiple of the prior traffic flow values that are associated with those at least one locations and with one or more prior times to which that one time period corresponds, on determining a typical traffic flow conditions value based on the aggregated prior traffic flow values, and on using the determined typical traffic flow conditions value as the generated representative traffic flow conditions information for the traffic flow aggregation classification.

5. The method of claim 4 wherein the prior traffic flow values each include a traffic speed of one or more vehicles, and wherein the determined typical traffic flow conditions values represent average traffic speeds of multiple vehicles.

6. The method of claim 4 wherein the obtained information indicating the actual traffic flow conditions of the vehicle at the two or more locations includes multiple actual traffic flow conditions values for the vehicle that are each associated with one of the two or more locations and with an indicated time, and wherein the fitting of the actual travel path of the vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions indicated by the generated historical travel profile includes, for each of at least some of the actual traffic flow conditions values for the vehicle,

determining one of the traffic flow aggregation classifications that includes the associated location for the actual traffic flow conditions value and that includes a time period to which the associated indicated time for the actual traffic flow conditions value corresponds, and retrieving the determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the determined one traffic flow aggregation classification;

and

determining a numerical difference between the actual traffic flow conditions value and the retrieved determined typical traffic flow conditions value.

7. The method of claim 6 wherein the fitting of the actual travel path of the vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions indicated by the generated historical travel profile further includes, for each of one or more of the other locations,

determining one of the multiple time periods to which the other location corresponds for the actual travel path of the vehicle;

identifying one of the traffic flow aggregation classifications that includes the other location and that includes the determined one time period, and retrieving the determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the identified one traffic flow aggregation classification;

adjusting the retrieved determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the identified one traffic flow aggregation classification based at least in part on one or more of the determined numerical differences for the actual traffic flow conditions values; and

selecting the adjusted typical traffic flow conditions value as the expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle for the other location.

8. The method of claim 4 wherein the fitting of the actual travel path of the vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions indicated by the generated historical travel profile further includes, for each of one or more of the other locations,

determining one of the multiple time periods to which the other location corresponds for the actual travel path of the vehicle;

identifying one of the traffic flow aggregation classifications that includes the other location and that includes the determined one time period, and retrieving the determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the identified one traffic flow aggregation classification;

identifying another of the traffic flow aggregation classifications that includes another second location distinct from the other location, and retrieving the determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the identified another traffic flow aggregation classification;

determining that the retrieved determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the identified another traffic flow aggregation classification is a better match for the actual travel path of the vehicle than the retrieved determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the identified one traffic flow aggregation classification; and

selecting the retrieved determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the identified another traffic flow aggregation classification to be used as the expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle for the other location.

9. The method of claim 4 wherein the fitting of the actual travel path of the vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions indicated by the generated historical travel profile further includes, for each of one or more of the other locations,

determining one of the multiple time periods to which the other location corresponds for the actual travel path of the vehicle;

identifying one of the traffic flow aggregation classifications that includes the other location and that includes the determined one time period, and retrieving the determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the identified one traffic flow aggregation classification;

identifying another of the traffic flow aggregation classifications that includes another second time period distinct from the determined one time period, and retrieving the determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the identified another traffic flow aggregation classification;

determining that the retrieved determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the identified another traffic flow aggregation classification is a better match for the actual travel path of the vehicle than the retrieved determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the identified one traffic flow aggregation classification; and

selecting the retrieved determined typical traffic flow conditions value for the identified another traffic flow aggregation classification to be used as the expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle for the other location.

10. The method of claim 1 wherein the one or more traffic flow obstructions on the indicated portion of the road are one or more structural traffic flow obstructions that are part of the indicated portion of the road, the one or more structural traffic flow obstructions including at least one of one or more traffic signal lights, of one or more stop signs, or of one or more traffic intersections with other roads.

11. The method of claim 1 wherein the one or more programmed computing systems are part of an estimated traffic information provider system, and wherein the method further comprises, under control of the one or more programmed computing systems, using the generated historical travel profile of the indicated portion of the road to automatically calculate expected traffic flow conditions for travel paths of multiple vehicles that travel along the indicated portion of the road.

12. The method of claim 1 wherein the one or more programmed computing systems are associated with the vehicle, and wherein the obtained information about the actual travel path of the vehicle includes a plurality of data samples that each reports an actual traffic speed of the vehicle at an indicated time and at an indicated associated road location, the data samples being generated by a device associated with the vehicle that is one of the one or more programmed computing systems.

13. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having stored contents that configure a computing device to perform a method, the method comprising:

obtaining a generated travel profile of an indicated portion of a road that indicates differing representative traffic flow conditions for a plurality of locations on the indicated portion of the road, the generated travel profile being based on information about prior road traffic flow conditions for the indicated portion of the road and reflecting one or more flow obstructions that reduce traffic flow for at least one location of the plurality of locations;

obtaining information about an actual travel path of a vehicle as it previously passed over at least some of the indicated portion of the road and passed multiple locations of the plurality of locations, the obtained information indicating actual traffic flow conditions for the vehicle at a subset of two or more of the multiple locations and not indicating actual traffic flow conditions for the vehicle at one or more other locations of the multiple locations, wherein the other locations include locations between the two or more locations of the subset that the vehicle passed by without a device associated with the vehicle generating a corresponding data sample;

automatically calculating, by the configured computing device, expected traffic flow conditions for the vehicle for the one or more other locations by adapting at least some of the obtained information for the actual travel path of the vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile; and

providing one or more indications of the automatically calculated expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle.

14. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 13 wherein the one or more flow obstructions are one or more structural traffic flow obstructions located at the at least one location of the indicated portion of the road, and wherein the obtaining of the generated travel profile of the indicated portion of the road includes:

receiving information about the prior road traffic flow conditions for the indicated portion of the road, the information about the prior road traffic flow conditions reflecting prior travel of a plurality of vehicles on the indicated portion of the road at a plurality of prior times and further reflecting the one or more structural traffic flow obstructions that reduce traffic flow for the at least one location on the indicated portion of the road; and

automatically generating, by the configured computing device, the travel profile of the indicated portion of the road based at least in part on the received information about the prior road traffic flow conditions, wherein the differing representative traffic flow conditions indicated by the generated travel profile further correspond to multiple periods of time.

15. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 14 wherein the obtained information about the actual travel path of the vehicle corresponds to a first of the multiple periods of time, and wherein the automatic calculating of the expected traffic flow conditions for the vehicle includes fitting the actual travel path of the vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the other locations by adjusting those representative traffic flow conditions to reflect differences between the actual traffic flow conditions for the vehicle at the two or more locations from the obtained information and the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the two or more locations and to reflect representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for one or more of the multiple periods of time that are distinct from the first period of time.

16. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 13 wherein the vehicle has not yet reached one or more other parts of the indicated portion of the road that are distinct from the at least some indicated portion of the road, and wherein the providing of the one or more indications of the automatically calculated expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle further includes dynamically using additional automatically calculated expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle for one or more locations along the one or more other parts of the indicated portion of the road that the vehicle has not yet reached, to assist future travel of the vehicle over the one or more other parts of the indicated portion of the road.

17. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 13 wherein the automatic calculating of the expected traffic flow conditions for the vehicle includes fitting the actual travel path of the vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the other locations by adjusting those representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the other locations to reflect differences between the actual traffic flow conditions for the vehicle at the two or more locations from the obtained information and the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the two or more locations.

18. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 13 wherein the configured computing device is part of an estimated traffic information provider system, wherein the method further comprises, under control of the configured computing device of the estimated traffic information provider system, using the generated travel profile of the indicated portion of the road to automatically calculate expected traffic flow conditions for travel paths of multiple vehicles that travel along the indicated portion of the road, wherein the computer-readable storage medium is a memory of the computing device, and wherein the contents are instructions that when executed program the computing device to perform the method.

19. A computing system, comprising:

one or more processors; and

one or more modules that are configured to, when executed by at least one of the one or more processors, generate expected traffic flow information for travel paths of multiple vehicles over one or more roads by, for each of the multiple vehicles;

obtaining a generated travel profile of an indicated portion of one of the one or more roads that indicates differing representative traffic flow conditions for a plurality of locations on the indicated portion of the road, the generated travel profile being based on information about prior road traffic flow conditions for the indicated portion of the road and reflecting one or more flow obstructions that reduce traffic flow at one or more locations of the plurality of locations;

obtaining information about an actual travel path of the vehicle that includes at least some of the indicated portion of the road, the obtained information indicating actual traffic flow conditions for the vehicle at a subset of two or more of the plurality of locations of the indicated portion of the road;

automatically calculating expected traffic flow conditions for the vehicle for at least some of the plurality of locations of the indicated portion of the road that the vehicle previously passed during the actual travel path and that are not part of the subset for which the obtained information indicates the actual traffic flow conditions, wherein the at least some locations include locations between the two or more locations of the subset that the vehicle passed by without a device associated with the vehicle generating a corresponding data sample, and wherein the automatic calculating of the expected traffic flow conditions includes fitting at least some of the obtained information for the actual travel path of the vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile; and

providing one or more indications of the automatically calculated expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle.

20. The computing system of claim 19 wherein the computing system further comprises an additional module that is configured to generate multiple travel profiles for multiple indicated portions of multiple roads, wherein the obtaining of the generated travel profile of the indicated portion of the road for each of the multiple vehicles includes retrieving one of the generated multiple travel profiles, and wherein, for one of the multiple vehicles, the one or more flow obstructions that reduce traffic flow at the one or more locations on the indicated portion of the road for the one vehicle are one or more structural traffic flow obstructions located at those one or more locations, and the generating by the additional module of the travel profile for the indicated portion of the road that is retrieved for the one vehicle includes:

receiving information about the prior road traffic flow conditions for the indicated portion of the road, the information about the prior road traffic flow conditions reflecting prior travel of a plurality of vehicles on the indicated portion of the road at a plurality of prior times and further reflecting the one or more structural traffic flow obstructions that reduce traffic flow at the one or more locations on the indicated portion of the road; and

automatically generating the travel profile of the indicated portion of the road based at least in part on the received information about the prior road traffic conditions, the differing representative traffic flow conditions indicated by the generated travel profile further corresponding to multiple periods of time.

21. The computing system of claim 20 wherein the obtained information about the actual travel path of the one vehicle corresponds to a first of the multiple periods of time, and wherein the automatic calculating of the expected traffic flow conditions for the one vehicle includes fitting the actual travel path of the one vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the first period of time and for the at least some locations of the indicated portion of the road that are not part of the subset by adjusting those representative traffic flow conditions to reflect differences between the actual traffic flow conditions for the one vehicle at the two or more locations from the obtained information and the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the two or more locations.

22. The computing system of claim 20 wherein the actual travel path of the one vehicle corresponds to travel by the one vehicle along the at least some indicated portion of the road, wherein the one vehicle has not yet reached one or more other parts of the indicated portion of the road that are distinct from the at least some indicated portion of the road, and wherein the providing of the one or more indications of the automatically calculated expected traffic flow conditions of the one vehicle further includes dynamically using additional automatically calculated expected traffic flow conditions of the one vehicle for one or more locations along the one or more other parts of the indicated portion of the road that the one vehicle has not yet reached, to assist future travel of the one vehicle over the one or more other parts of the indicated portion of the road.

23. The computing system of claim 20 wherein the one or more modules and the additional module include a historical data manager module, a current data manager module and a current traffic condition estimator module, and wherein the historical data manager module, the current data manager module and the current traffic condition estimator module each have software instructions for execution by the one or more processors.

24. The computing system of claim 19 wherein the one or more roads include multiple roads, wherein the obtained generated travel profiles for the multiple vehicles include multiple distinct travel profiles for indicated portions of the multiple roads, wherein the one or more modules are part of an estimated traffic information provider system that facilitates travel of the multiple vehicles on the multiple roads, and wherein the automatic calculating of the expected traffic flow conditions for each of the multiple vehicles includes fitting the actual travel path of the vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the at least some locations of the indicated portion of the road that are not part of the subset for the vehicle by adjusting those representative traffic flow conditions to reflect differences between the actual traffic flow conditions for the vehicle at the two or more locations from the obtained information and the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the two or more locations.

25. The computing system of claim 19 wherein the one or more modules consist of a means for performing the generating of the expected traffic flow information for the travel paths of the multiple vehicles over the one or more roads.

28. The method of claim 24 wherein the information about the prior road traffic flow conditions is based on prior travel of a plurality of vehicles on the indicated portion of the road at a plurality of prior times, wherein the generated travel profile indicates differing historical representative traffic flow conditions for the indicated portion of the road that reflect multiple periods of time, wherein the at least some data samples are generated at times that correspond to a first of the multiple periods of time, and wherein the automatic calculating of the expected traffic flow conditions for the vehicle includes fitting the actual travel path of the vehicle to the historical representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the some locations by adjusting those representative traffic flow conditions to reflect differences between the actual traffic flow conditions for the vehicle at the multiple locations from the generated data samples and the historical representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the multiple locations and to reflect historical representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for one or more of the multiple periods of time that are distinct from the first period of time.

26. A computer-implemented method comprising:

obtaining a generated travel profile of an indicated portion of a road that indicates differing representative traffic flow conditions for a plurality of locations on the indicated portion of the road, the generated travel profile being based on information about prior road traffic flow conditions for the indicated portion of the road and reflecting one or more flow obstructions that reduce traffic flow at one or more of the plurality of locations;

automatically generating multiple data samples that reflect actual traffic flow conditions for a vehicle at a subset of multiple of the plurality of locations of the indicated portion of the road, wherein the vehicle has an actual travel path that includes at least some of the indicated portion of the road and that corresponds to at least some of the multiple data samples, and wherein the multiple data samples are generated periodically by a configured computing device traveling with the vehicle and include data for two or more locations of the subset and do not include data corresponding to some locations that the vehicle has passed between the two or more locations of the subset;

automatically calculating, by the configured computing device, expected traffic flow conditions for the vehicle for the some locations by fitting the actual travel path of the vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile; and

providing by the configured computing device one or more indications of the automatically calculated expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle to one or more users in the vehicle to facilitate further travel of the vehicle.

27. The method of claim 26 wherein the obtaining of the generated travel profile of the indicated portion of the road includes:

receiving information about the prior road traffic flow conditions for the indicated portion of the road, the information about the prior road traffic flow conditions reflecting prior travel of a plurality of vehicles on the indicated portion of the road at a plurality of prior times and further reflecting the one or more flow obstructions that reduce traffic flow at the one or more locations on the indicated portion of the road; and

automatically generating, by the configured computing device, the travel profile of the indicated portion of the road based at least in part on the received information about the prior road traffic conditions, the differing representative traffic flow conditions indicated by the generated travel profile further corresponding to multiple periods of time.

29. The method of claim 26 wherein the actual travel path of the vehicle corresponds to travel by the vehicle along the at least some indicated portion of the road, wherein the vehicle has not yet reached one or more other parts of the indicated portion of the road that are distinct from the at least some indicated portion of the road, and wherein the providing of the one or more indications of the automatically calculated expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle further includes dynamically using additional automatically calculated expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle for one or more locations along the one or more other parts of the indicated portion of the road that the vehicle has not yet reached, to assist future travel of the vehicle over the one or more other parts of the indicated portion of the road.

30. The method of claim 26 wherein the automatic calculating of the expected traffic flow conditions for the vehicle includes fitting the actual travel path of the vehicle to the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the some locations by adjusting those representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile to reflect differences between the actual traffic flow conditions for the vehicle at the multiple locations from the generated data samples and the representative traffic flow conditions from the generated travel profile for the multiple locations.

31. The method of claim 26 wherein the obtaining of the generated travel profile of the indicated portion of the road includes receiving the generated travel profile from a remote estimated traffic information provider system, and wherein the method further comprises providing by the configured computing device the automatically calculated expected traffic flow conditions of the vehicle to the estimated traffic information provider system to facilitate future travel by other vehicles on the indicated portion of the road.