Systems and methods for detecting changes in energy usage in a building

• US 9,286,582 B2
• Filed: 10/03/2011
• Issued: 03/15/2016
• Est. Priority Date: 06/22/2009
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Johnson Controls Technology Company (Johnson Controls International plc)
• Original Assignee: Johnson Controls Technology Company (Johnson Controls International plc)
• Inventors: Drees, Kirk H., Kummer, James P., Wenzel, Michael J.
• Primary Examiner(s): Kim, Eunhee
• Application Number:
  US13/252,092
• Publication Number:
  US 20120084063A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,625 Days
• Field of Search: 703/1, 703/2, 700/109, 700/291, 702/60, 702/179, 715/771
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 13/048 using a predictor
• CPC Class Codes: G05F 1/66 Regulating electric power
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 30/20 Design optimisation, verification or simulation optimisation, verification or simulation of circuit designs G06F30/30
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 13/00006 characterised by information or instructions transport means between the monitoring, controlling or managing units and monitored, controlled or operated power network element or electrical equipment
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 2203/20 Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: Y02B 90/20 Smart grids as enabling technology in buildings sector smart grids supporting the management or operation of end-user stationary applications in general, or like technologies with no associated climate change mitigation effect Y04S20/00
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 60/00 Enabling technologies; Technologies with a potential or indirect contribution to GHG emissions mitigation
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 20/00 Management or operation of end-user stationary applications or the last stages of power distribution; Controlling, monitoring or operating thereof
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 40/12 characterised by data transport means between the monitoring, controlling or managing units and monitored, controlled or operated electrical equipment
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 40/20 Information technology specific aspects, e.g. CAD, simulation, modelling, system security

Abstract

A computer system for use with a building management system for a building includes a processing circuit configured to determine a building'"'"'s baseline energy usage model. The processing circuit may be configured to determine one or more automatically selected variables for use in the baseline energy usage model for predicting energy use in a building. The processing circuit may be further configured to cause the display of the one or more automatically selected variables on a user interface device. The processing circuit may be configured to receive, from the user interface, a selection of one or more variables which differ from the one or more automatically selected variables. The processing circuit may be further configured to use the received selection to generate a new baseline energy usage model.

Claims

1. A method for generating a baseline energy usage model for a building management system comprising:

receiving, at a processing circuit, an initial set of variables for potential use in a baseline energy usage model for predicting energy use in a building;

performing, by the processing circuit, statistical hypothesis testing on each of the initial set of variables to determine which of the initial set of variables are statistically significant to the energy use in the building, the statistical hypothesis testing comprising;

generating a first set of coefficients for the baseline energy usage model based on the initial set of variables;

removing one of the variables from the initial set of variables to create a subset of the initial set of variables;

generating a second set of coefficients for the baseline energy usage model based on the subset of the initial set of variables; and

calculating a test statistic for the removed variable using a difference between the first set of coefficients and the second set of coefficients and comparing the calculated test statistic to a critical value;

automatically selecting, by the processing circuit, one or more of the initial set of variables for use in the baseline energy usage model based on a result of the statistical hypothesis testing, wherein a variable is selected for use in the baseline energy usage model when the test statistic calculated for the variable exceeds the critical value;

causing the one or more automatically selected variables to be displayed on a user interface device;

receiving, at the user interface, a selection of one or more variables which differ from the one or more automatically selected variables; and

using the selection of the one or more variables which differ from the one or more automatically selected variables to generate a new baseline energy usage model.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the selection of the one or more variables which differ from the one or more automatically selected variables comprises a selection of one or more time periods.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the new baseline energy usage model is generated by applying regression analysis to the selection of the one or more variables which differ from the one or more automatically selected variables.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

receiving, at the user interface device, a selection of an override parameter, wherein the new baseline energy usage model is generated based on the selection of the override parameter.

5. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

receiving, at the user interface device, a selection of a data source;

retrieving comparison data from memory based on the selection of a data source; and

using the retrieved comparison data to determine an energy consumption.

6. The method of claim 5 further comprising:

comparing the comparison data to the baseline energy usage model; and

causing an indication of the comparison to be displayed by the user interface device.

7. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

validating that two or more selected variables have overlapping timeframes; and

causing a warning to be displayed by the user interface device based on the comparison.

8. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

generating a graph using the baseline energy consumption model; and

causing the graph to be displayed by the user interface device.

9. The method of claim 6, further comprising:

generating a graph based on the comparison; and

causing the graph to be displayed by the user interface device.

10. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

receiving, at the user interface, different selections to test generating different baseline energy usage models.

11. A system for generating a baseline energy usage model for a building management system comprising:

a processing circuit configured to receive an initial set of variables for potential use in a baseline energy usage model for predicting energy use in a building,

wherein the processing circuit is further configured to perform statistical hypothesis testing on each of the initial set of variables to determine which of the initial set of variables are statistically significant to the energy use in the building, the statistical hypothesis testing comprising;

generating a first set of coefficients for the baseline energy usage model based on the initial set of variables;

removing one of the variables from the initial set of variables to create a subset of the initial set of variables;

generating a second set of coefficients for the baseline energy usage model based on the subset of the initial set of variables; and

calculating a test statistic for the removed variable using a difference between the first set of coefficients and the second set of coefficients and comparing the calculated test statistic to a critical value;

wherein the processing circuit is further configured to automatically select one or more of the initial set of variables for use in the baseline energy usage model based on a result of the statistical hypothesis testing, wherein a variable is selected for use in the baseline energy usage model when the test statistic calculated for the variable exceeds the critical value,

wherein the processing circuit is further configured to cause the one or more automatically selected variables to be displayed on a user interface device,

wherein the processing circuit is further configured to receive, from the user interface, a selection of one or more variables which differ from the one or more automatically selected variables, and

wherein the processing circuit is further configured to use the selection of the one or more variables which differ from the one or more automatically selected variables to generate a new baseline energy usage model.

12. The system of claim 11, wherein the selection of the one or more variables which differ from the one or more automatically selected variables comprises a selection of one or more time periods.

13. The system of claim 11, wherein the new baseline energy usage model is generated by applying regression analysis to the selection of the one or more variables which differ from the one or more automatically selected variables.

14. The system of claim 11, wherein the processing circuit is further configured to receive, from the user interface device, a selection of an override parameter, wherein the new baseline energy usage model is generated based on the selection of the override parameter.

15. The system of claim 11, wherein the processing circuit is further configured to receive, from the user interface device, a selection of a data source;

wherein the processing circuit is configured to retrieve comparison data from memory based on the selection of a data source; and

wherein the processing circuit is further configured to use the retrieved comparison data to determine an energy consumption.

16. The system of claim 15, wherein the processing circuit is further configured to compare the comparison data to the baseline energy usage model and to cause an indication of the comparison to be displayed by the user interface device.

17. The system of claim 11, wherein the processing circuit is further configured to validate that two or more selected variables have overlapping timeframes and to cause a warning to be displayed by the user interface device based on the comparison.

18. The system of claim 11, wherein the processing circuit is further configured to generate a graph using the baseline energy consumption model and to cause the graph to be displayed by the user interface device.

19. The system of claim 11, wherein the processing circuit is further configured to receive, from the user interface device, different selections to test generating different baseline energy usage models.

20. Non-transitory computer-readable storage media with computer-executable instructions embodied thereon that when executed by a computer system perform a method for use with a building management system in a building, wherein the instructions comprise:

instructions for receiving an initial set of variables for potential use in a baseline energy usage model for predicting energy use in a building;

instructions for performing statistical hypothesis testing on each of the initial set of variables to determine which of the initial set of variables are statistically significant to the energy use in the building, the statistical hypothesis testing comprising;

generating a first set of coefficients for the baseline energy usage model based on the initial set of variables;

removing one of the variables from the initial set of variables to create a subset of the initial set of variables;

generating a second set of coefficients for the baseline energy usage model based on the subset of the initial set of variables; and

calculating a test statistic for the removed variable using a difference between the first set of coefficients and the second set of coefficients and comparing the calculated test statistic to a critical value;

instructions for automatically selecting one or more of the initial set of variables for use in the baseline energy usage model based on a result of the statistical hypothesis testing, wherein a variable is selected for use in the baseline energy usage model when the test statistic calculated for the variable exceeds the critical value;

instructions for causing the one or more automatically selected variables to be displayed on a user interface device;

instructions for receiving a selection of one or more variables which differ from the one or more automatically selected variables; and

instructions for using the selection of the one or more variables which differ from the one or more automatically selected variables to generate a new baseline energy usage model.