Continuous value-per-click estimation for low-volume terms

• US 9,311,661 B1
• Filed: 09/04/2013
• Issued: 04/12/2016
• Est. Priority Date: 07/09/2007
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Marin Software
• Original Assignee: Marin Software
• Inventors: Walcott, Wister, Reichling, Florian, Betz, Martin, Barnett, Joseph
• Primary Examiner(s): Poinvil, Frantzy
• Application Number:
  US14/018,198
• Time in Patent Office: 951 Days
• Field of Search: 705 3- 44
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0241 Advertisements
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0242 Determining effectiveness of advertisements
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0275 Auctions
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/12 Accounting

Abstract

An estimated conversion rate for a desired advertisement term is calculated. A total number of conversion events for terms having a conversion rate is determined for each of a plurality of conversion rates, and data is generated that describes a first distribution function representing the conversion rates and the associated numbers of conversion rates. Additionally, data describing a second distribution function representing the probability of a given number of conversion events occurring is also generated. Based at least in part on the first distribution function and the second distribution function, the estimated conversion rate for the desired advertisement term is computed.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method performed by an analysis server, the method comprising:

performing, by a computer processor of the analysis server, the following;

accessing statistics for a set of terms relevant to advertisements, the statistics obtained from a plurality of advertising publisher computer systems over a computer network via application programming interfaces (APIs) of the plurality of advertising publisher computer systems, the statistics comprising numbers of conversion events associated with the terms based on actions of a plurality of users in response to display of advertisements associated with the terms on client devices of the users;

receiving a budget amount over the computer network from a computer system of an advertiser for given terms, the budget amount representing what the advertiser is willing to pay for the given terms;

determining numbers of term conversion events for a plurality of conversion rates, using the accessed statistics;

generating first data representing a distribution of the term conversion events over the plurality of conversion rates;

generating second data representing probabilities of given numbers of conversion events occurring;

computing an estimated conversion rate for a first one of the given terms using the first data representing the distribution of the term conversion events over the plurality of conversion rates and the second data representing probabilities of given numbers of conversion rates occurring;

computing, using the computed estimated conversion rate and the budget amount provided by the advertiser computer system, a bid price for an advertiser to submit to the advertising publisher computer systems over the computer network for an advertisement relevant to the first given term; and

automatically providing the bid price to the computer system of the advertiser over the computer network for submission to one or more of the advertising publisher computer systems.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein determining the numbers of term conversion events, generating the first data, generating the second data, and computing the estimated conversion rate, are performed responsive at least in part to a given statistic of the statistics for the given term being below a threshold.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 2, wherein the given statistic is the number of viewing designations for the given term and the threshold is 100 viewing designations.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 2, further comprising computing the estimated conversion rate based only on the accessed statistics for the given term, responsive at least in part to the given statistic of the statistics for the given term exceeding the threshold.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the first data describes a beta distribution describing a distribution of the term conversion events over the plurality of conversion rates.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the second data describes a binomial distribution describing probabilities of given numbers of term conversion events occurring for a given number of viewing designations of the given term.

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising computing the bid price based on a given profit margin.

8. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising computing an adjusted bid by increasing the bid price responsive to at least one of:

a minimum bid imposed by an advertising publisher to which the adjusted bid is submitted, and

remaining funds in an advertising budget of the advertiser.

9. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising obtaining the accessed statistics for the set of terms from an advertising publisher.

10. A computer program product comprising:

a computer-readable storage medium containing computer program instructions comprising;

instructions for accessing statistics for a set of terms relevant to advertisements, the statistics obtained from a plurality of advertising publisher computer systems over a computer network via application programming interfaces (APIs) of the plurality of advertising publisher computer systems, the statistics comprising numbers of conversion events associated with the terms based on actions of a plurality of users in response to display of advertisements associated with the terms on client devices of the users;

instructions for receiving a budget amount over the computer network from a computer system of an advertiser for given terms, the budget amount representing what the advertiser is willing to pay for the given terms;

instructions for determining numbers of term conversion events for a plurality of conversion rates, using the accessed statistics;

instructions for generating first data representing a distribution of the term conversion events over the plurality of conversion rates;

instructions for generating second data representing probabilities of given numbers of conversion events occurring;

instructions for computing an estimated conversion rate for a first one of the given terms using the first data representing the distribution of the term conversion events over the plurality of conversion rates and the second data representing probabilities of given numbers of conversion rates occurring;

instructions for computing, using the computed estimated conversion rate and the budget amount provided by the advertiser computer system, a bid price for an advertiser to submit to the advertising publisher computer systems over the computer network for an advertisement relevant to the first given term; and

instructions for automatically providing the bid price to the computer system of the advertiser over the computer network for submission to one or more of the advertising publisher computer systems.

11. The computer program product of claim 10, wherein determining the numbers of term conversion events, generating the first data, generating the second data, and computing the estimated conversion rate, are performed responsive at least in part to a given statistic of the statistics for the given term being below a threshold.

12. The computer program product of claim 11, wherein the given statistic is the number of viewing designations for the given term and the threshold is 100 viewing designations.

13. The computer program product of claim 11, the instructions further comprising instructions for computing the estimated conversion rate based only on the accessed statistics for the given term, responsive at least in part to the given statistic of the statistics for the given term exceeding the threshold.

14. The computer program product of claim 10, the instructions further comprising instructions for obtaining the accessed statistics for the set of terms from an advertising publisher.

15. The computer program product of claim 10, the computer program instructions further comprising computing the bid price based on a given profit margin.

16. A computer system comprising:

a term statistics database storing statistics for a set of terms relevant to advertisements, the statistics obtained from a plurality of advertising publisher computer systems over a computer network via application programming interfaces (APIs) of the plurality of advertising publisher computer systems, the statistics comprising numbers of conversion events associated with the terms based on actions of a plurality of users in response to display of advertisements associated with the terms on client devices of the users; and

an information analysis module executed by a computer processor and configured to;

receive a budget amount over the computer network from a computer system of an advertiser for given terms, the budget amount representing what the advertiser is willing to pay for the given terms;

determine numbers of term conversion events for a plurality of conversion rates, using the accessed statistics;

generate first data representing a distribution of the term conversion events over the plurality of conversion rates;

generate second data representing probabilities of given numbers of conversion events occurring; and

compute an estimated conversion rate for a first one of the given terms using the first data representing the distribution of the term conversion events over the plurality of conversion rates and the second data representing probabilities of given numbers of conversion rates occurring;

compute, using the computed estimated conversion rate and the budget amount provided by the advertiser computer system, a bid price for an advertiser to submit to the advertising publisher computer systems over the computer network for an advertisement relevant to the first given term; and

automatically provide the bid price to the computer system of the advertiser over the computer network for submission to one or more of the advertising publisher computer systems.

17. The system of claim 16, wherein the first data describes a beta distribution describing a distribution of the term conversion events over the plurality of conversion rates.

18. The system of claim 16, wherein the second data describes a binomial distribution describing probabilities of given numbers of term conversion events occurring for a given number of viewing designations of the given term.

19. The system of claim 16, further comprising a bid optimization module configured to compute a bid price for an advertiser to submit for an advertisement associated with the given term using the computed estimated conversion rate.

20. The system of claim 19, wherein the bid optimization module is further configured to compute an adjusted bid by increasing the bid price responsive to at least one of:

a minimum bid imposed by an advertising publisher to which the adjusted bid is submitted, and

remaining funds in an advertising budget of the advertiser.