System and method for generating shipment forecasts for materials handling facilities

• US 9,466,043 B1
• Filed: 03/15/2013
• Issued: 10/11/2016
• Est. Priority Date: 09/24/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Amazon Technologies, Inc. (Amazon.com, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Amazon Technologies, Inc. (Amazon.com, Inc.)
• Inventors: Agarwal, Richa, Helleboid, Thomas Yves Paul, Mishra, Shyam, Wan, Lin, Patrick, Simon M., Lai, Jin, Bhaskaran, Michael Mahesh
• Primary Examiner(s): Chen, George
• Application Number:
  US13/833,970
• Time in Patent Office: 1,306 Days
• Field of Search: 705/1.1, 705 711- 735, 705330-341
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/08 Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/083 Shipping

Abstract

Embodiments may include a forecasting component that, for each of different service levels offered to customers, generates a projection of the quantity of shipments to be shipped according to that service level during a time period. The forecasting component may be configured to, based on an aggregate quantity of shipments projected to be shipped, modify the projected quantities of shipments for the multiple service levels. The forecasting component may, for each service level, receive information specifying a distribution of different shipment methods that are projected to be utilized to ship shipments of a particular priority designation to meet requirements of that service level. The forecasting component may, based on the distribution for each service level and the modified projected quantity of shipments for each service level, generate a forecast specifying quantities of shipments that are to be shipped during the time period according to each of the different shipment methods.

Claims

1. A system, comprising:

one or more processors;

a memory, storing program instructions that when executed by the one or more processors implement a forecasting component and a control system;

wherein the forecasting component is configured to;

for a particular time period;

generate a projection of a quantity of shipments that will be shipped from a materials handling facility for each shipment service level of multiple different shipment service levels during the particular time period, wherein the projected quantity of shipments for a respective service level is the quantity of shipments shipped according to that shipment service level;

based on one or more shipment characteristics, separate the projected quantities of shipments into at least two shipment volume portions;

for each shipment volume portion, receive information specifying a distribution of different shipment methods that are projected to be utilized to ship shipments of the shipment volume portion during the particular time period;

based on the distribution received for each shipment volume portion and the projected quantity of shipments within each volume portion, generate a forecast for a combined shipment volume, wherein said forecast specifies respective quantities of shipments for the combined shipment volume that are to be shipped during the particular time period according to each of the different shipment methods; and

instruct one or more staffing level assignments for one or more work stations in the materials handling facility according to the forecast for the combined shipment volume; and

wherein the control system is configured to;

route, via conveyance mechanisms, shipments of items picked from inventory maintained in the materials handling facility to the one or more work stations for preparation for shipment by agents assigned to the one or more work stations based on the forecast for the combined shipment volume according to one or more of the different shipment methods.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein one or more of the multiple different shipment service levels include one or more of:

a one-day shipment service level, a two-day shipment service level, or an economy shipment service level.

3. The system of claim 1, wherein to generate a given projection of the quantity of shipments that will be shipped from the materials handling facility for a given shipment service level, the forecasting component is configured to:

utilize a time series forecasting model to generate the given projection from historical data.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein a shipment characteristic common to the shipments of one of the at least two shipment volume portions is a low priority designation, and wherein a shipment characteristic common to the shipments of another one of the at least two shipment volume portions is a high priority designation.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein the forecasting component is further configured to:

prior to separating the projected quantities of shipments, modify the projected quantities of shipments for each of the multiple shipment service levels to provide a different respective modified projected quantity of shipments for each shipment service level based on an aggregate quantity of shipments projected to be shipped from the materials handling facility during the particular time period.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein the received distribution of different shipment methods for at least one shipment volume portion of the at least two shipment volume portions is different from the received distribution of different shipment methods for a different one of the at least two shipment volume portions.

7. The system of claim 1, wherein said multiple different shipment service levels are not specific to any particular shipment carrier, wherein at least some of said different shipment methods are specific to a respective shipment carrier.

8. A method, comprising:

performing, by one or more computing devices;

generating, by a forecasting component, a projection of a quantity of shipments that will be shipped from a materials handling facility for each shipment service level of multiple different shipment service levels during a particular time period, wherein the projected quantity of shipments for a respective service level is the quantity of shipments shipped according to that shipment service level;

based on one or more shipment characteristics, separating, by the forecasting component, the projected quantities of shipments into at least two shipment volume portions;

for each shipment volume portion, receiving, at the forecasting component, information specifying a distribution of different shipment methods that are projected to be utilized to ship shipments of the shipment volume portion during the particular time period;

based on the distribution received for each shipment volume portion and the projected quantity of shipments within each shipment volume portion, generating, by the forecasting component, a forecast for a combined shipment volume, wherein said forecast specifies respective quantities of shipments for the combined shipment volume that are to be shipped during the particular time period according to each of the different shipment methods; and

instructing, by the forecasting component, one or more staffing level assignments for one or more work stations in the materials handling facility according to the forecast for the combined shipment volume; and

routing, by a control system for the materials handling facility via conveyance mechanisms, shipments of items picked from inventory maintained in the materials handling facility to the one or more work stations for preparation for shipment by agents assigned to the one or more work stations based on the forecast for the combined shipment volume according to one or more of the different shipment methods.

9. The method of claim 8, further comprising:

prior to separating the projected quantities of shipments, modifying the projected quantities of shipments for each of the multiple shipment service levels to provide a different respective modified projected quantity of shipments for each shipment service level based on an aggregate quantity of shipments projected to be shipped from the materials handling facility during the particular time period.

10. The method of claim 9, further comprising, generating the aggregate quantity of shipments projected to be shipped from the materials handling facility, wherein said generating comprises:

receiving information specifying a historical average of a quantity of units per shipment processed by the materials handling facility;

receiving information specifying an aggregate quantity of units projected to be processed by the materials handling facility during the particular time period; and

dividing said aggregate quantity of units by the historical average of the quantity of units per shipment to generate said aggregate quantity of shipments.

11. The method of claim 9, wherein said modifying the projected quantities of shipments for the multiple shipment services levels based on said aggregate quantity of shipments comprises:

proportionately modifying the projected quantities such that a summation of the projected quantities is equivalent to said aggregate quantity of shipments.

12. The method of claim 8, wherein said generating a projection of a quantity of shipments that will be shipped from a materials handling facility for each shipment service level of multiple different shipment service levels during a particular time period, comprises:

utilizing a time series forecasting model to generate the given projection from historical data.

13. The method of claim 8, wherein a shipment characteristic common to the shipments of one of the at least two shipment volume portions is a low priority designation, and wherein a shipment characteristic common to the shipments of another one of the at least two shipment volume portions is a high priority designation.

14. A non-transitory, computer-readable storage medium, storing program instructions that when executed by one or more computing devices that implement:

generating, by a forecasting component, a projection of a quantity of shipments that will be shipped from a materials handling facility for each shipment service level of multiple different shipment service levels during a particular time period, wherein the projected quantity of shipments for a respective service level is the quantity of shipments shipped according to that shipment service level;

based on one or more shipment characteristics, separating, by the forecasting component, the projected quantities of shipments into at least two shipment volume portions;

for each shipment volume portion, receiving information specifying, by the forecasting component, a distribution of different shipment methods that are projected to be utilized to ship shipments of the shipment volume portion during the particular time period; and

based on the distribution received for each shipment volume portion and the projected quantity of shipments within each shipment volume portion, generating, by the forecasting component, a forecast for a combined shipment volume, wherein said forecast specifies respective quantities of shipments for the combined shipment volume that are to be shipped during the particular time period according to each of the different shipment methods; and

instructing, by the forecasting component, one or more staffing level assignments for one or more work stations in the materials handling facility according to the forecast for the combined shipment volume; and

routing, by a control system for the materials handling facility via conveyance mechanisms, shipments of items picked from inventory maintained in the materials handling facility to the one or more work stations for preparation for shipment by agents assigned to the one or more work stations based on the forecast for the combined shipment volume according to one or more of the different shipment methods.

15. The non-transitory, computer-readable storage medium of claim 14, wherein a shipment characteristic common to the shipments of one of the at least two shipment volume portions is a low priority designation, and wherein a shipment characteristic common to the shipments of another one of the at least two shipment volume portions is a high priority designation.

16. The non-transitory, computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein the received distribution of different shipment methods for the shipment volume portion with the low priority designation common to the shipments is different from the received distribution of different shipment methods for the shipment volume portion with the high priority designation.

17. The non-transitory, computer-readable storage medium of claim 16, wherein the received distribution of different shipment methods for the shipment volume portion with the low priority designation common to the shipments is a historical distribution of shipment methods, and wherein the received distribution of different shipment methods for the shipment volume portion with the high priority designation common to the shipments is a distribution of shipment methods generated based on one or more simulations performed on a sample of historical shipments.

18. The non-transitory, computer-readable storage medium of claim 14, wherein the one or more shipment characteristics comprise:

priority designation;

shipment origin;

or

shipment destination.

19. The non-transitory, computer-readable storage medium of claim 14, wherein the forecasting component further implements:

prior to separating the projected quantities of shipments, modifying the projected quantities of shipments for each of the multiple shipment service levels according to order cutoff dates.

20. The non-transitory, computer-readable storage medium of claim 14, wherein the forecasting component further implements:

prior to separating the projected quantities of shipments, modifying the projected quantities of shipments for each of the multiple shipment service levels to provide a different respective modified projected quantity of shipments for each shipment service level based on an aggregate quantity of shipments projected to be shipped from the materials handling facility during the particular time period.