Adaptive traffic dynamics prediction

• US 9,536,424 B2
• Filed: 02/10/2014
• Issued: 01/03/2017
• Est. Priority Date: 02/10/2014
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: HERE Global B.V. (Nokia Corporation)
• Original Assignee: HERE Global B.V. (Nokia Corporation)
• Inventors: Macfarlane, Jane, Grossman, Robert, Bennett, Collin, Pivarski, James
• Primary Examiner(s): Lau, Hoi
• Application Number:
  US14/176,361
• Publication Number:
  US 20150228188A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,058 Days
• Field of Search: 340/936, 340/906, 340/907, 340/995.13, 340/910, 340/917, 340/931, 701/201, 701117-119, 701/202, 701/200, 701/204, 701/1
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0112 from the vehicle, e.g. floating car data [FCD]
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0116 from roadside infrastructure, e.g. beacons
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/012 from other sources than vehicle or roadside beacons, e.g. mobile networks
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0129 for creating historical data or processing based on historical data
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0141 for traffic information dissemination
• CPC Class Codes: H05K 999/99 dummy group

Abstract

The disclosed embodiments relate to prediction of traffic dynamics. A descriptive model is provided that uses historical probe data to create “tidal-like” patterns for the usual dynamics on the road network and creates a framework for taking a future time, e.g. in terms of month, day, time, and suggesting a typical speed for the specified road network link at that specific time. With this model, better predictions for estimated time of arrival will be derived. As opposed to blindly extrapolating from a static model, the disclosed embodiments dynamically adapt to current conditions using real time data to adapt, based on current conditions, the model from which a predicted speed may be determined.

Claims

1. A computer implemented method comprising:

receiving, by a processor, a request for a predicted speed of travel for a portion of a road network at a specified time period subsequent to the receipt of the request;

receiving, by the processor, data indicative of recent speed of travel along the portion of the road network;

accessing, by the processor based on the specified time period, a database, stored in a memory coupled with the processor, including a plurality of speed profiles each of which comprises data indicative of observed travel speeds along the portion of the road network during a prior time period and obtaining therefrom a subset of the plurality of speed profiles applicable to the specified time period, the subset comprising at least two speed profiles; and

generating, by the processor based on the data indicative of the recent speed of travel and the obtained subset of the plurality of profiles, data indicative of the predicted speed of travel for the specified time period for the portion of the road network.

2. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the request specifies the time period as a calendar date and time of day.

3. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the portion of the road network is part of a route between a starting location and a destination, the route comprising a plurality of portions of the road network.

4. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the portion of the road network comprises one or more adjacent route links having one or more similar traffic patterns observed over one or more adjacent time periods.

5. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the data indicative of the recent speed of travel along the portion of the road network is derived from one or more vehicles which have recently travelled at least part of the portion of the road network.

6. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the specified time period comprises a future occurrence of a recurring time period, the subset of the plurality of speed profiles comprising a speed profile for each of a plurality of frequently recurring travel speed patterns observed during prior occurrences of the recurring time period.

7. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the generating further comprises computing a weighted average of the profiles of the subset of the plurality of profiles weighted based on data indicative of the recent speed of travel.

8. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the generating further comprises selecting the one profile of the subset of the plurality of speed profiles based on a best fit of the data indicative of recent speed of travel.

9. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the generating further comprises generating, based on the subset of the plurality of speed profiles, data indicative of the predicted travel speed for a time period subsequent to the receipt of the request which includes the specified time period.

10. A system comprising:

a processor and a memory coupled therewith;

first logic stored in the memory and executable by the processor to cause the processor to receive a request for a predicted speed of travel for a portion of a road network at a specified time period subsequent to the receipt of the request;

second logic stored in the memory and executable by the processor to cause the processor to receive data indicative of recent speed of travel along the portion of the road network;

third logic stored in the memory and executable by the processor to cause the processor to access, based on the specified time period, a database, stored in the memory, including a plurality of speed profiles each of which comprises data indicative of observed travel speeds along the portion of the road network during a prior time period and obtain therefrom a subset of the plurality of speed profiles applicable to the specified time period, the subset comprising at least two speed profiles; and

fourth logic stored in the memory and executable by the processor to cause the processor to generate, based on the data indicative of the recent speed of travel and the obtained subset of the plurality of profiles, data indicative of the predicted speed of travel for the specified time period for the portion of the road network.

11. The system of claim 10 wherein the portion of the road network comprises one or more adjacent route links having one or more similar traffic patterns observed over one or more adjacent time periods.

12. The system of claim 10 wherein the data indicative of the recent speed of travel along the portion of the road network is derived from one or more vehicles which have recently travelled at least part of the portion of the road network.

13. The system of claim 10 wherein the specified time period comprises a future occurrence of a recurring time period, the subset of the plurality of speed profiles comprising a speed profile for each of a plurality of frequently recurring travel speed patterns observed during prior occurrences of the recurring time period.

14. The system of claim 10 wherein the fifth logic is further executable by the processor to cause the processor to compute a weighted average of the profiles of the subset of the plurality of profiles weighted based on data indicative of the recent speed of travel.

15. The system of claim 10 wherein the fifth logic is further executable by the processor to cause the processor to select the one of the subset of the plurality of speed profiles based on a best fit of the data indicative of recent speed of travel.

16. The system of claim 10 wherein the fifth logic is further executable by the processor to cause the processor to generate, based on the subset of the plurality of speed profiles, data indicative of the predicted travel speed for a time period subsequent to the receipt of the request which includes the specified time period.

17. A system comprising:

a request receiver operative to receive a request for a predicted speed of travel for a portion of a road network at a specified time period subsequent to the receipt of the request;

a real time speed model coupled with the request receiver and operative to provide data indicative of recent speed of travel along the portion of the road network;

a historical speed model coupled with request receiver and operative to access, based on the specified time period, a database including a plurality of speed profiles each of which comprises data indicative of observed travel speeds along the portion of the road network during a prior time period and obtain therefrom a subset of the plurality of speed profiles applicable to the specified time period, the subset comprising at least two speed profiles; and

a speed predictor coupled with the historical speed model and the real time speed model and operative to generate, based on the data indicative of the recent speed of travel and the obtained subset of the plurality of profiles, data indicative of the predicted speed of travel for the specified time period for the portion of the road network.

18. The system of claim 17 where in the request specifies the time period as a calendar date and time of day.

19. The system of claim 17 wherein the portion of the road network is part of a route between a starting location and a destination, the route comprising a plurality of portions of the road network.

20. The system of claim 17 wherein the portion of the road network comprises one or more adjacent route links having one or more similar traffic patterns observed over one or more adjacent time periods.

21. The system of claim 17 wherein the data indicative of the recent speed of travel along the portion of the road network is derived from one or more vehicles which have recently travelled at least part of the portion of the road network.

22. The system of claim 17 wherein the specified time period comprises a future occurrence of a recurring time period, the subset of the plurality of speed profiles comprising a speed profile for each of a plurality of frequently recurring travel speed patterns observed during prior occurrences of the recurring time period.

23. The system of claim 17 wherein the speed predictor is further operative to compute a weighted average of the profiles of the subset of the plurality of profiles weighted based on data indicative of the recent speed of travel.

24. The system of claim 17 wherein the speed predictor is further operative to select the one profile of the subset of the plurality of speed profiles based on a best fit of the data indicative of recent speed of travel.

25. The system of claim 17 wherein the speed predictor is further operative to generate, based on the subset of the plurality of speed profiles, data indicative of the predicted travel speed for a time period subsequent to the receipt of the request which includes the specified time period.

26. A system comprising:

means for receiving a request for a predicted speed of travel for a portion of a road network at a specified time period subsequent to the receipt of the request;

means for receiving data indicative of recent speed of travel along the portion of the road network;

means for accessing, based on the specified time period, a database, stored in a memory coupled with the means for receiving data, including a plurality of speed profiles each of which comprises data indicative of observed travel speeds along the portion of the road network during a prior time period and obtaining therefrom a subset of the plurality of speed profiles applicable to the specified time period, the subset comprising at least two speed profiles; and

means for generating, based on the data indicative of the recent speed of travel and the obtained subset of the plurality of profiles, data indicative of the predicted speed of travel for the specified time period for the portion of the road network.