Predicting economic conditions
First Claim
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1. An apparatus comprising:
- an early warning system;
a processor; and
memory storing computer readable instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the apparatus to;
receive economic data of multiple time series for an economic system;
determine correlation coefficient values using the data of the multiple time series;
create a matrix using the correlation coefficient values;
determine the nearest neighbor spacing distribution;
determine lowest values of correlation coefficients and set the lowest values of correlation coefficients iteratively to zero;
determine a threshold level of a control parameter, wherein the threshold level is detected once a phase transition occurs and wherein a modeled distribution for the economic data changes from a first distribution to a second distribution;
output an economic instability prediction based on the threshold level;
generate, based on the economic instability prediction, an early warning signal about the economic data, wherein the early warning signal is indicative of whether the threshold level is approaching and wherein the early warning signal comprises an early warning notification and detailed information about a potential instability of the economic data;
determine a set of registered computing devices associated with the economic system, wherein the set includes a first device and a second device;
send the early warning notification about the economic system to the first and second devices;
initiate launching of an early warning application at the first device; and
send the detailed information about the potential instability to the first device via the early warning application.
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Abstract
Computer-implemented methods for identifying or assessing any type of risk and/or opportunity that may arise can include either, alone or in combination, band pass filtering, principal component analysis, random matrix theory analysis, synchronization analysis, and early-warning detection. Each technique can also be viewed as a process that takes a set of inputs and converts it to a set of outputs. These outputs can be used as inputs for a subsequent process or the outputs may be directly actionable for formulating certain economic predictions to make certain decisions.
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Citations
24 Claims
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1. An apparatus comprising:
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an early warning system; a processor; and memory storing computer readable instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the apparatus to; receive economic data of multiple time series for an economic system; determine correlation coefficient values using the data of the multiple time series; create a matrix using the correlation coefficient values; determine the nearest neighbor spacing distribution; determine lowest values of correlation coefficients and set the lowest values of correlation coefficients iteratively to zero; determine a threshold level of a control parameter, wherein the threshold level is detected once a phase transition occurs and wherein a modeled distribution for the economic data changes from a first distribution to a second distribution; output an economic instability prediction based on the threshold level; generate, based on the economic instability prediction, an early warning signal about the economic data, wherein the early warning signal is indicative of whether the threshold level is approaching and wherein the early warning signal comprises an early warning notification and detailed information about a potential instability of the economic data; determine a set of registered computing devices associated with the economic system, wherein the set includes a first device and a second device; send the early warning notification about the economic system to the first and second devices; initiate launching of an early warning application at the first device; and send the detailed information about the potential instability to the first device via the early warning application. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11)
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12. A method comprising:
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receiving, by a processing system, economic data of multiple time series; determining, by the processing system, correlation coefficient values using the data of the multiple time series; creating, by the processing system, a matrix using the correlation coefficient values; determining, by the processing system, the nearest neighbor spacing distribution; determining, by the processing system, lowest values of correlation coefficients and setting the lowest values of correlation coefficients iteratively to zero; determining, by the processing system, a threshold level of a control parameter, wherein the threshold level is detected once a phase transition occurs and wherein a modeled distribution for the economic data changes from a first distribution to a second distribution; outputting, by the processing system, an economic instability prediction based on the threshold level; generating, by the processing system, an early warning signal based on the economic instability prediction for an economic system, wherein the early warning signal is indicative of whether the threshold level is approaching and wherein the early warning signal comprises an early warning notification and detailed information about a potential instability of the economic system; sending the early warning notification about the economic system to a primary device; when an acknowledgement is received from the primary device, sending the detailed information about the instability to the primary device; and when the acknowledgement is not received from the primary device, determining a set of registered computing devices associated with the economic system, wherein the set includes a first device and a second device; sending the early warning notification about the economic system to the first and second devices; initiating a launching of an early warning application at the primary device; remotely connecting the primary device to the first device; and sending the detailed information to the first device via the primary device. - View Dependent Claims (13, 14, 15, 16)
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17. One or more non-transitory computer-readable media having instructions stored thereon that, when executed, cause at least one computing device to:
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receive economic data of multiple time series for an economic system; determine correlation coefficient values using the data of the multiple time series; create a matrix using the correlation coefficient values; determine the nearest neighbor spacing distribution; determine lowest values of correlation coefficients and set the lowest values of correlation coefficients iteratively to zero; determine a threshold level of a control parameter by using a chi-square test, wherein the threshold occurs at an observed phase transition and wherein a modeled distribution for the economic data changes from a first distribution to a second distribution; output an economic instability prediction based on the threshold level; generate an early warning signal from the economic instability prediction for the economic system, wherein the early warning signal is indicative of whether the threshold level is approaching and wherein the early warning signal comprises and early warning notification and detailed information about a potential instability of the economic system; determine a set of registered computing devices associated with the economic system, wherein the set comprises a first device and a second device; send the early warning notification about the economic system to the first and second devices; initiate of an early warning application at the first device; and send the detailed information about the potential instability to the first device via the early warning application. - View Dependent Claims (18, 19, 20)
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21. An apparatus comprising:
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a processor; and memory storing computer readable instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the apparatus to; obtain economic data of multiple time series of interest about an economic system; determine correlation coefficient values using the data; form a matrix of the correlation values and determine eigen-values of the correlation matrix; form a random matrix counterpart with a known eigen-value density distribution; compare statistics of the eigen-values of the data correlation matrix to values of the random matrix counterpart of the known eigen-value distribution; determine a difference between a quantity of the eigen-values of the data correlation matrix and the random matrix counterpart; output a retained number of principal components to be retained based on the difference between the quantity of the eigen-values of the data correlation matrix and the random matrix counterpart; and determine, from the retained number, a driver of trends determined from the economic data; include an indicator about the driver in an early warning signal, wherein the early warning signal comprises an early warning notification and detailed information about a potential instability of the economic system; determine a set of registered computing devices associated with the economic system, wherein the set includes a first device and a second device; initiate a launching of an early warning application at the first device; and send the detailed information about the potential instability to the first device via the early warning application. - View Dependent Claims (22, 23, 24)
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Specification