Reliability maintaining serial number credit process

• US 9,645,571 B2
• Filed: 03/14/2013
• Issued: 05/09/2017
• Est. Priority Date: 03/14/2013
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation (Martin Marietta Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation (Martin Marietta Corporation)
• Inventors: Cappelli, Marcus D., Zhao, Jack Z.
• Primary Examiner(s): Toatley, Gregory J
• Assistant Examiner(s): QUIGLEY, KYLE ROBERT
• Application Number:
  US13/826,701
• Publication Number:
  US 20140278149A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,517 Days
• Field of Search: 702 34, 700 29
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 19/4065 Monitoring tool breakage, life or condition
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06395 Quality analysis or management
• CPC Class Codes: G07C 3/00 Registering or indicating the condition or the working of machines or other apparatus, other than vehicles

Abstract

Embodiments are directed to receiving, by a computing device comprising a processor, an anticipated usage input, a load input and a strength input associated with a unit, calculating, by the computing device, a baseline reliability value based at least in part on the anticipated usage input, the load input and the strength input, receiving, by the computing device, usage data associated with use of the unit, generating, by the computing device, an updated reliability value based on at least some of the inputs used to calculate the baseline reliability value and the usage data, and determining, by the computing device, a lifetime for the unit based on the updated reliability value.

Claims

1. A method comprising:

receiving, by a computing device comprising a processor, an anticipated usage input, a load input and a strength input associated with one of an aircraft and an aircraft component;

calculating, by the computing device, a baseline reliability value based at least in part on the anticipated usage input, the load input and the strength input of the one of an aircraft and an aircraft component;

receiving, by the computing device, usage data associated with use of the one of an aircraft and an aircraft component;

generating, by the computing device, an updated reliability value based on at least some of the inputs used to calculate the baseline reliability value and the usage data;

comparing measured data for a regime of use with data based on at least one user input;

determining a category of uncertainty in the usage data based on the comparison;

fitting a distribution to the usage data based on the category;

determining, by the computing device, a lifetime for the one of an aircraft and an aircraft component based on the updated reliability value; and

updating a usage monitor and reliability factor (UMRF) of the one of the aircraft and the aircraft component based on the determined lifetime; and

retiring the one of the aircraft and the aircraft component after the UMRF indicates a retirement time.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein generating the updated reliability value comprises at least one of:

applying a monte carlo technique to the baseline reliability value inputs and the usage data; and

applying an advanced reliability method to the baseline reliability value inputs and the usage data.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

monitoring, by the computing device, the usage data over time to capture variation in the usage data; and

adjusting, by the computing device, the lifetime to account for the variation in the usage data.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the monitoring occurs at one or more predetermined time intervals.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the usage data pertains to at least one regime of use, and wherein the updated reliability value is generated by re-evaluating a portion of a usage input associated with the baseline reliability value that pertains to the at least one regime of use.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

subjecting, by the computing device, the usage data to the UMRF when generating the updated reliability value.

7. The method of claim 6, further comprising:

iterating, by the computing device, use of the UMRF until the updated reliability value equals the baseline reliability value or an identified reliability value.

8. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

transmitting the updated reliability value from a health and usage monitor system (HUMS) module provided at the aircraft to a fleet management operations center (FMOC) to determine the lifetime and update the UMRF.

9. An apparatus comprising:

at least one processor; and

memory having instructions stored thereon that, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the apparatus to;

receive an anticipated usage input, a load input and a strength input associated with an aircraft,

calculate a baseline reliability value based at least in part on the anticipated usage input, the load input and the strength input,

receive usage data associated with use of the aircraft,

generate an updated reliability value based on at least some of the inputs used to calculate the baseline reliability value and the usage data;

compare measured data for a regime of use with data based on at least one user input;

determine a category of uncertainty in the usage data based on the comparison;

fit a distribution to the usage data based on the category;

determine a lifetime for the aircraft based on the updated reliability value; and

update a usage monitor and reliability factor (UMRF) of the one of the aircraft and the aircraft component based in the determined lifetime; and

retire the one of the aircraft and the aircraft component after the UMRF indicates a retirement time.

10. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the instructions, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the apparatus to:

determine a lifetime for the aircraft based on a mapping between the updated reliability value and a range of candidate lifetime values.

11. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the instructions, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the apparatus to:

generate the updated reliability value by applying at least one of;

(i) a monte carlo technique to the baseline reliability value inputs and the usage data, and (ii) at least one advanced reliability method to the baseline reliability value inputs and the usage data.

12. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the instructions, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the apparatus to:

monitor the usage data over time to capture variation in the usage data, and

adjust the lifetime to account for the variation in the usage data.

13. The apparatus of claim 12, wherein the instructions, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the apparatus to:

monitor the usage data at one or more predetermined time intervals.

14. The apparatus of claim 12, wherein the instructions, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the apparatus to:

determine when to perform the monitoring based on a statistical analysis.

15. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the usage data pertains to at least one regime of use, and wherein the instructions, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the apparatus to:

generate the updated reliability value by re-evaluating a portion of a usage input associated with the baseline reliability value that pertains to the at least one regime of use.

16. The apparatus of claim 15, wherein the at least one regime of use pertains to at least one type of maneuver performed by the aircraft.

17. The apparatus of claim 16, wherein the at least one type of maneuver comprises at least one of:

take-off, climb, turn, and land.

18. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the instructions, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the apparatus to:

subject the usage data to the UMRF when generating the updated reliability value.

19. The apparatus of claim 18, wherein the instructions, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the apparatus to:

iterate use of the UMRF until the updated reliability value equals the baseline reliability value or an identified reliability value.

20. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the distribution is based on a random summation of a number of instances of the regime of use.

21. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein at least one of the baseline reliability value and the updated reliability value is based on a correlation between input variables.

22. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the instructions, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the apparatus to:

determine an error associated with the usage data, and

generate the updated reliability value based on the error.

23. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the instructions, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the apparatus to:

transmit the updated reliability value from a health and usage monitor system (HUMS) module provided at the apparatus to a fleet management operations center (FMOC) to determine the lifetime and update the UMRF.