Coupon effectiveness indices

• US 9,721,267 B2
• Filed: 12/17/2010
• Issued: 08/01/2017
• Est. Priority Date: 12/17/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Fair Isaac Corporation
• Original Assignee: Fair Isaac Corporation
• Inventors: Fahner, Gerald, Yan, Zhenyu, Rahman, Shafi, Sowani, Amit Kiran
• Primary Examiner(s): Brandenburg, William A
• Application Number:
  US12/971,610
• Publication Number:
  US 20120158474A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,419 Days
• Field of Search: 705 1413, 705 1441
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0211 Determining the effectiveness of discounts or incentives
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0242 Determining effectiveness of advertisements

Abstract

Profiles characterizing each of a plurality of consumers are received. Thereafter, each profile is associated with one of a plurality of customer segments (e.g., matched pairs, etc.). Thereafter, a coupon effectiveness index is determined for each of the plurality of consumers for an offering based on the associated customer segment. The coupon effectiveness indices model characterizes causal effects estimates determined using historical data of purchases of individuals having varying coupon treatments for the offering. Subsequently, provision of at least a portion of the determined coupon effectiveness indices is initiated. Related apparatus, systems, techniques and articles are also described.

Claims

1. A method for implementation by one or more data processors, the method comprising:

receiving, by at least one data processor in an automated sub-system configured to perform parallel processing and sitting within a larger computing system for retail action management and optimization, data comprising profiles characterizing each of a plurality of consumers;

splitting, by the automated sub-system configured to perform parallel processing, the profiles into a plurality of datasets based at least on an identifier corresponding to each of the plurality of consumers;

associating, in parallel by at least one data processor in the automated sub-system sitting within the larger system for retail action management and optimization, each profile with one of a plurality of customer segments;

determining, by at least one data processor in the automated sub-system sitting within the larger system for retail action management and optimization, using a coupon effectiveness indices model, a coupon effectiveness index score for each of the plurality of consumers for a future offering based on the associated customer segment, the coupon effectiveness indices model characterizing causal effects estimates determined using historical data of purchases of individuals having varying coupon treatments for the offering, the coupon effectiveness scores being used to rank order the consumers according to expected differences in potential outcomes given a change in treatment for the corresponding consumer, wherein using the coupon effectiveness indices model comprises;

fine-binning of variables to create independent intervals where the independent intervals contribute to the coupon effectiveness index score independent of the other independent intervals;

executing, in parallel by the automated subsystem for each of the plurality of datasets, a least-square model or a Bernoulli likelihood scorecard model to generate a set of scores corresponding to each of the plurality of datasets; and

merging the plurality of datasets to create an omnibus score comprising the average derivative of a treatment-response curve; and

initiating provision of at least a portion of the determined coupon effectiveness indices.

2. A method as in claim 1, further comprising:

initiating, by at least one data processor, one or more transactions based on the determined coupon effectiveness indices.

3. A method as in claim 1, further comprising:

optimizing, by at least one data processor, subsequent offerings according to one or more pre-defined business objectives using the determined coupon effectiveness indices.

4. A method as in claim 3, wherein the optimizing comprises:

assigning, by at least one data processor, unique coupons or coupon combinations to consumers subject to at least one of (i) product and (ii) service specific coupon volume limitations.

5. A method as in claim 3, wherein the offering is a product or service coupon.

6. A method as in claim 3, wherein the offering is a product or a service.

7. A method as in claim 1, wherein determined coupon effectiveness indices are provided by at least one of (i) persisting, (ii) transmitting, and (iii) displaying at least a portion of the determined coupon effectiveness indices.

8. A method as in claim 1, wherein the historical data comprises line item transaction data to analyze and identify historical coupon marketing targeting activity and resulting customer purchase activities.

9. A method as in claim 8, wherein the customer purchase activities include coupon redemption data.

10. A method as in claim 8, wherein the historical data further comprises validity periods during which a corresponding coupon was effect.

11. A method as in claim 8, wherein the historical data comprises demographic data for the individuals.

12. A method as in claim 8, wherein the historical data comprises non-purchase related data associated with historical purchases.

13. A method as in claim 1, wherein the varying coupon treatments for the offering comprise:

providing a coupon or not providing a coupon to the corresponding individual.

14. A method as in claim 1, wherein the varying coupon treatments for the offering comprise:

providing a coupon at one or more discount levels or not providing a coupon to the corresponding individual.

15. A method as in claim 1, wherein the customer segments comprise matched samples of treated and control units.

16. A method as in claim 15, wherein the matched samples are pair-wise disjoint.

17. A method as in claim 15, wherein non-parametric estimates of individual-level causal treatments are determined for matched pairs of treated and control units.

18. A method as in claim 15, wherein there are more than two treatment levels and a score development sample is generated with covariates and target values for each matched sample.

19. An article of manufacture comprising:

computer executable instructions non-transitorily stored on computer readable storage media, which, when executed by a computer, causes the computer to perform operations comprising;

receiving, by at least one data processor in an automated sub-system configured to perform parallel processing and sitting within a larger computing system for retail action management and optimization, data comprising profiles characterizing each of a plurality of consumers;

splitting, by the automated sub-system configured to perform parallel processing, the profiles into a plurality of datasets based at least on an identifier corresponding to each of the plurality of consumers;

associating, in parallel by at least one data processor in the automated sub-system sitting within the larger system for retail action management and optimization, each profile with one of a plurality of customer segments;

determining, by at least one data processor in the automated sub-system sitting within the larger system for retail action management and optimization, using a coupon effectiveness indices model, a coupon effectiveness index score for each of the plurality of consumers for a future offering based on the associated customer segment, the coupon effectiveness indices model characterizing causal effects estimates determined using historical data of purchases of individuals having varying coupon treatments for the offering, the coupon effectiveness scores being used to rank order the consumers according to expected differences in potential outcomes given a change in treatment for the corresponding consumer, wherein using the coupon effectiveness indices model comprises;

fine-binning of variables to create independent intervals where the independent intervals contribute to the coupon effectiveness index score independent of the other independent intervals;

executing, in parallel by the automated subsystem for each of the plurality of datasets, a least-square model or a Bernoulli likelihood scorecard model to generate a set of scores corresponding to each of the plurality of datasets; and

merging the plurality of datasets to create an omnibus score comprising the average derivative of a treatment-response curve; and

initiating provision of at least a portion of the determined coupon effectiveness indices.

20. A computer implemented method comprising:

initiating, by at least one data processor, an optimization process to select a coupon to provide to a customer;

determining, by at least one data processor in an automated sub-system system configured to perform parallel processing and sitting within a larger computing system for retail action management and optimization, whether a coupon effectiveness scores generated by a coupon effectiveness indices model are available for the customer, the coupon effectiveness indices model characterizing causal effects estimates determined using historical data of purchases of individuals having varying coupon treatments for the offering, wherein using the coupon effectiveness indices model comprises;

fine-binning of variables to create independent intervals where the independent intervals contribute to the coupon effectiveness index score independent of the other independent intervals;

executing, in parallel by the automated subsystem for each of the plurality of datasets, a least-square model or a Bernoulli likelihood scorecard model to generate a set of scores corresponding to each of a plurality of datasets; and

merging the plurality of datasets to create an omnibus score comprising the average derivative of a treatment-response curve; and

identifying, by at least one data processor in the automated sub-system sitting within the larger computing system for retail action management and optimization, using the coupon effectiveness scores and at least one pre-defined business objective if it is determined that there are available coupon effectiveness scores, which of a plurality of products to offer to the customer and a type of coupon for the corresponding product to offer to the customer;

identifying, by at least one data processor in the automated sub-system sitting within the larger computing system for retail action management and optimization, using coupon redemption scores or propensity scores if it is determined that there are no available coupon effectiveness scores, which of a plurality of products to offer to the customer and a type of coupon for the corresponding product to offer to the customer, the coupon redemption scores characterizing a likelihood of the customer to redeem a coupon that does not take into account pre-defined business objectives, the propensity scores characterizing a likelihood of a customer to purchase a product that does not take into account pre-defined business objectives; and

initiating, by at least one data processor in the automated sub-system sitting within the larger computing system for retail action management and optimization and based on the identifying, providing data characterizing at least one coupon.