Utility usage forecasting

• US 9,739,908 B2
• Filed: 01/07/2014
• Issued: 08/22/2017
• Est. Priority Date: 01/07/2014
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Hosking, Jonathan R. M., Natarajan, Ramesh
• Primary Examiner(s): Gray, David M
• Assistant Examiner(s): Evans, Geoffrey T
• Application Number:
  US14/149,205
• Publication Number:
  US 20150192697A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,323 Days
• Field of Search: None
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09

Abstract

The computer creates a utility demand forecast model for weather parameters by receiving a plurality of utility parameter values, wherein each received utility parameter value corresponds to a weather parameter value. Determining that a range of weather parameter values lacks a sufficient amount of corresponding received utility parameter values. Determining one or more utility parameter values that corresponds to the range of weather parameter values. Creating a model which correlates the received and the determined utility parameter values with the corresponding weather parameters values.

Claims

1. A method for creating a utility demand forecast model for weather parameters, the method comprising:

receiving, by one or more processors, a plurality of utility parameter values, wherein each utility parameter value out of the plurality of utility parameter values corresponds to a weather parameter value;

determining, by one or more processors, that a range of weather parameter values lacks a sufficient amount of corresponding utility parameter values out of the plurality of utility parameters;

determining, by one or more processors, a set of utility parameter values that corresponds to the range of weather parameter values based on a portion of the plurality of utility parameter values corresponding to the range of weather parameter values lacking a sufficient amount of corresponding utility parameter values;

creating, by one or more processors, a model which correlates the plurality of utility parameter values and the set of utility parameter values with corresponding weather parameters values; and

providing, by one or more processors, an amount of a utility to one or more structures based on the model.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of, determining that a range of weather parameter values lacks a sufficient amount of corresponding utility parameter values, comprises:

determining, by one or more processors, that an amount of received utility parameter values that correspond to the range of the weather parameter values neither meet nor exceed a threshold.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the step of, determining a set of utility parameter values that corresponds to the range of weather parameter values, comprises:

determining, by one or more processors, a plurality of utility parameter values that may correspond to a first weather parameter value of the range of weather parameter values, wherein each of the plurality of utility parameter values has an associated probability of occurrence; and

determining, by one or more processors, one or more utility parameter values from the plurality of utility parameter values, wherein the determined one or more utility parameter values has the highest associated probability of occurrence.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the weather parameter values includes a group comprising one or more of:

past outdoor temperatures, past wind chill factors, past heat indices, and past precipitation measurements.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the utility parameter values includes a group comprising one or more of:

past natural gas consumption, past electrical consumption, water consumption, and past heating oil consumption.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of, creating a model which correlates the plurality of utility parameter values and the the set of utility parameter values with corresponding weather parameters values, comprises:

determining, by one or more processors, a single utility parameter value that corresponds to each weather parameter value.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of, creating a model which correlates the plurality of utility parameter values and the the set of utility parameter values with corresponding weather parameters values, comprises:

determining, by one or more processors, a first slope for a first portion of determined utility parameter values;

determining, by one or more processors, a second slope for a second portion of determined utility parameter values; and

generating, by one or more processors, a model, utilizing a cubic spline approximation, based on the determined first and second slopes.

8. A computer program product for creating a utility demand forecast model for weather parameters, the computer program product comprising:

one or more computer readable storage media;

program instructions stored on the one or more computer readable storage media, wherein the one or more computer readable storage media is not a signal per se, which when executed by one or more processors, cause the processor to;

receive, by one or more processors, a plurality of utility parameter values, wherein each utility parameter value out of the plurality of utility parameter values corresponds to a weather parameter value;

determine, by one or more processors, that a range of weather parameter values lacks a sufficient amount of corresponding utility parameter values out of the plurality of utility parameters;

determine, by one or more processors, a set of utility parameter values that corresponds to the range of weather parameter values based on a portion of the plurality of utility parameter values corresponding to the range of weather parameter values lacking a sufficient amount of corresponding utility parameter values;

create, by one or more processors, a model which correlates the plurality of utility parameter values and the set of utility parameter values with corresponding weather parameters values; and

provide, by one or more processors, an amount of a utility to one or more structures based on the model.

9. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the step of, determining that a range of weather parameter values lacks a sufficient amount of corresponding utility parameter values, comprises program instructions, stored on the one or more computer readable storage media, which when executed by a processor, cause the processor to:

determine, by one or more processors, that an amount of received utility parameter values that correspond to the range of the weather parameter values neither meet nor exceed a threshold.

10. The computer program product of claim 9, wherein the step of, determining a set of utility parameter values that corresponds to the range of weather parameter values, comprises program instructions, stored on the one or more computer readable storage media, which when executed by a processor, cause the processor to:

determine, by one or more processors, a plurality of utility parameter values that may correspond to a first weather parameter value of the range of weather parameter values, wherein each of the plurality of utility parameter values has an associated probability of occurrence; and

determine, by one or more processors, one or more utility parameter values from the plurality of utility parameter values, wherein the determined one or more utility parameter values has the highest associated probability of occurrence.

11. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the weather parameter values includes a group comprising one or more of:

past outdoor temperatures, past wind chill factors, past heat indices, and past precipitation measurements.

12. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the utility parameter values includes a group comprising one or more of:

past natural gas consumption, past electrical consumption, water consumption, and past heating oil consumption.

13. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the step of, creating a model which correlates the plurality of utility parameter values and the the set of utility parameter values with corresponding weather parameters values, stored on the one or more computer readable storage media, which when executed by a processor, cause the processor to:

determine, by one or more processors, a single utility parameter value that corresponds to each weather parameter value.

14. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the step of, creating a model which correlates the plurality of utility parameter values and the the set of utility parameter values with corresponding weather parameters values, stored on the one or more computer readable storage media, which when executed by a processor, cause the processor to:

determine, by one or more processors, a first slope for a first portion of determined utility parameter values;

determine, by one or more processors, a second slope for a second portion of determined utility parameter values; and

generate, by one or more processors, a model, utilizing a cubic spline approximation, based on the determined first and second slopes.

15. A computer system for creating a utility demand forecast model for weather parameters, the computer system comprising:

one or more computer processors;

one or more computer readable storage media;

program instructions stored on the one or more computer readable storage media, for execution by at least one of the one or more computer processors, which when executed, cause the computer processor to;

receive, by one or more processors, a plurality of utility parameter values, wherein each utility parameter value out of the plurality of utility parameter values corresponds to a weather parameter value;

determine, by one or more processors, that a range of weather parameter values lacks a sufficient amount of corresponding utility parameter values out of the plurality of utility parameters;

determine, by one or more processors, a set of utility parameter values that corresponds to the range of weather parameter values based on a portion of the plurality of utility parameter values corresponding to the range of weather parameter values lacking a sufficient amount of corresponding utility parameter values;

create, by one or more processors, a model which correlates the plurality of utility parameter values and the set of utility parameter values with corresponding weather parameters values; and

provide, by one or more processors, an amount of a utility to one or more structures based on the model.

16. The computer system of claim 15, wherein the step of, determining that a range of weather parameter values lacks a sufficient amount of corresponding utility parameter values, comprises program instructions, stored on the one or more computer readable storage media, which when executed by a processor, cause the processor to:

determine, by one or more processors, that an amount of received utility parameter values that correspond to the range of the weather parameter values neither meet nor exceed a threshold.

17. The computer system of claim 16, wherein the step of, determining a set of utility parameter values that corresponds to the range of weather parameter values, comprises program instructions, stored on the one or more computer readable storage media, which when executed by a processor, cause the processor to:

determine, by one or more processors, a plurality of utility parameter values that may correspond to a first weather parameter value of the range of weather parameter values, wherein each of the plurality of utility parameter values has an associated probability of occurrence; and

determine, by one or more processors, one or more utility parameter values from the plurality of utility parameter values, wherein the determined one or more utility parameter values has the highest associated probability of occurrence.

18. The computer system of claim 15, wherein the utility parameter values includes a group comprising one or more of:

past natural gas consumption, past electrical consumption, water consumption, and past heating oil consumption.

19. The computer system of claim 15, wherein the step of, creating a model which correlates the plurality of utility parameter values and the the set of utility parameter values with corresponding weather parameters values, stored on the one or more computer readable storage media, which when executed by a processor, cause the processor to:

determine, by one or more processors, a single utility parameter value that corresponds to each weather parameter value.

20. The computer system product of claim 15, wherein the step of, creating a model which correlates the plurality of utility parameter values and the the set of utility parameter values with corresponding weather parameters values, stored on the one or more computer readable storage media, which when executed by a processor, cause the processor to:

determine, by one or more processors, a first slope for a first portion of determined utility parameter values;

determine, by one or more processors, a second slope for a second portion of determined utility parameter values; and

generate, by one or more processors, a model, utilizing a cubic spline approximation, based on the determined first and second slopes.