Predicting economic conditions
First Claim
Patent Images
1. An apparatus comprising:
- an early warning system;
an electronic processing device; and
a memory device storing computer readable instructions that, when executed by the electronic processing device, cause the apparatus to;
receive economic data for a plurality of time series, wherein each time series of the plurality of time series corresponds to a different geographical entity;
determine auto regressive model coefficients for the economic data of the plurality of time series;
determine, for a first time series of the plurality, a first scaled lag-1 auto-correlation of the coefficients;
determine, for the first time series, a first scaled smoothed derivative from the first scaled lag-1 auto-correlation of the coefficients;
output, for the first member, a first indicator based on the first scaled smoothed derivative;
generate, by the early warning system based on at least the first indicator for the first time series of the plurality of time series, an early warning signal, wherein the first time series corresponds only to a first geographical entity and wherein the early warning signal comprises an early warning notification and detailed information about a potential instability of the economic data;
determine a set of registered computing devices associated with the first geographical entity, wherein the set includes a first device and a second device;
send the early warning notification about the first geographical entity to the first device and second device;
initiate launching of an early warning application at the first device; and
send the detailed information about the potential instability to the first device via the early warning application.
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Abstract
Computer-implemented methods for identifying or assessing any type of risk and/or opportunity that may arise can include either, alone or in combination, band pass filtering, principal component analysis, random matrix theory analysis, synchronization analysis, and early-warning detection. Each technique can also be viewed as a process that takes a set of inputs and converts it to a set of outputs. These outputs can be used as inputs for a subsequent process or the outputs may be directly actionable for formulating certain economic predictions to make certain decisions.
18 Citations
23 Claims
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1. An apparatus comprising:
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an early warning system; an electronic processing device; and a memory device storing computer readable instructions that, when executed by the electronic processing device, cause the apparatus to; receive economic data for a plurality of time series, wherein each time series of the plurality of time series corresponds to a different geographical entity; determine auto regressive model coefficients for the economic data of the plurality of time series; determine, for a first time series of the plurality, a first scaled lag-1 auto-correlation of the coefficients; determine, for the first time series, a first scaled smoothed derivative from the first scaled lag-1 auto-correlation of the coefficients; output, for the first member, a first indicator based on the first scaled smoothed derivative; generate, by the early warning system based on at least the first indicator for the first time series of the plurality of time series, an early warning signal, wherein the first time series corresponds only to a first geographical entity and wherein the early warning signal comprises an early warning notification and detailed information about a potential instability of the economic data; determine a set of registered computing devices associated with the first geographical entity, wherein the set includes a first device and a second device; send the early warning notification about the first geographical entity to the first device and second device; initiate launching of an early warning application at the first device; and send the detailed information about the potential instability to the first device via the early warning application. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 21, 22, 23)
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11. A method comprising:
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receiving economic data for a plurality of time series, wherein each time series of the plurality of time series corresponds to a different geographical entity; determining, for a first time series of the plurality, auto regressive model coefficients for the economic data of the plurality of time series, wherein the first time series corresponds to a first geographical entity; determining, for the first member, a scaled lag-1 auto-correlation of the coefficients; determining a scaled smoothed derivative from the scaled lag-1 auto-correlation of the coefficients; outputting, for the first member, a first indicator based on the scaled smoothed derivative, wherein the first indicator is applicable only to the first geographical entity; generating, based on the first indicator for the first time series of the plurality of time series, an early warning signal via a computer network, wherein the early warning signal comprises an early warning notification and detailed information about a potential instability of the economic data; processing the early warning signal to determine whether there is an instability of the economic data for the first geographical entity; determining a set of registered computing devices associated with the first geographical entity, wherein the set includes a first device and a second device; sending the early warning notification about the first geographical entity to the first device and second device; initiating launching of an early warning application at the first device; and sending the detailed information about the potential instability to the first device via the early warning application. - View Dependent Claims (12, 13, 14, 15)
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16. One or more non-transitory computer-readable media having instructions stored thereon that, when executed, cause at least one computing device to:
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receive economic data for a plurality of a time series, wherein each time series of the plurality of time series corresponds to a different geographical entity; determine, for a first time series of the plurality, auto regressive model coefficients for the economic data of the plurality of time series, wherein the first time series corresponds to a first geographical entity; determine, for the first member, a scaled lag-1 auto-correlation of the coefficients; determine a scaled smoothed derivative from the scaled lag-1 auto-correlation of the coefficients; output, for the first time series, a first indicator based on the scaled smoothed derivative, wherein the first indicator is applicable only to the first geographical entity; generate, based on the first indicator for the first time series, an early warning signal to an early warning system via a computer network, wherein the first times series corresponds to a first geographical entity; determine, from the early warning signal, whether there is an instability of the economic data for the first geographical entity, wherein the early warning signal comprises an early warning notification and detailed information about a potential instability of the economic data; determine a set of registered computing devices associated with the first geographical entity, wherein the set includes a first device and a second device; send the early warning notification about the first geographical entity to the first device and second device; initiate a launching of an early warning application at the first device; and send the detailed information about the potential instability to the first device via the early warning application. - View Dependent Claims (17, 18, 19, 20)
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Specification