System and method for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories

• US 9,741,254 B2
• Filed: 11/24/2014
• Issued: 08/22/2017
• Est. Priority Date: 12/31/2013
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Original Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Inventors: Navarro, Francisco, Hernandez Valls, Ernesto, Vilaplana, Miguel, Chessa, Piero, Querejeta Massaveu, Carlos
• Primary Examiner(s): Kiswanto, Nicholas
• Assistant Examiner(s): TAVERAS, KENNY ABEL
• Application Number:
  US15/109,319
• Publication Number:
  US 20160343258A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,002 Days
• Field of Search: None
• CPC Class Codes: G01C 21/20 Instruments for performing navigational calculations G01C21/24, G01C21/26 take precedence
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/047 Optimisation of routes or paths, e.g. travelling salesman problem
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/40 Business processes related to the transportation industry shipping G06Q10/083
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 5/0034 Assembly of a flight plan
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 5/0052 for cruising combined instruments indicating more than one navigational value G01C23/00
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 5/0091 for monitoring atmospheric conditions radar or analogous systems specially adapted for meteorological use G01S13/95; meteorology G01W
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 5/0095 Aspects of air-traffic control not provided for in the other subgroups of this main group

Abstract

The method of the present invention comprises acquiring input data of both aircraft performance characteristics and atmospheric data, and defining trajectory parameters to which the aircraft trajectory must be subjected, the method further comprising defining aircraft trajectory parameters; acquiring a plurality of atmospheric forecast ensembles; calculating a predicted trajectory from each atmospheric forecast of an atmospheric forecast ensemble, said predicted trajectory having associated information regarding a certain figure of merit of the aircraft trajectory, wherein an ensemble of predicted trajectories is obtained from each atmospheric forecast ensemble, each predicted trajectory of the ensemble of predicted trajectories having an associated probability derived from the probability of each atmospheric forecast within an atmospheric forecast ensemble; the system of the present disclosure comprising all the necessary equipment to carry out the method of the present disclosure.

Claims

1. A method for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories, for use in flight management of an aircraft, which comprises:

a. acquiring input data of both aircraft performance characteristics and atmospheric data, and

b. defining trajectory parameters to which the aircraft trajectory must be subjected,

characterized in that;

aircraft trajectory parameters are defined by means of a specific Aircraft Intent Description Language, which is constituted by specific signs, wherein each segment of the aircraft trajectory is described by each sign of the Aircraft Intent Description Language, wherein each specific combination of signs of the Aircraft Intent Description Language completely describes a whole trajectory;

atmospheric data is acquired in the form of a plurality of atmospheric forecast ensembles, each atmospheric forecast within an atmospheric forecast ensemble expressing a determined weather scenario with an associated probability;

wherein the method further comprises;

c. calculating a predicted trajectory from each atmospheric forecast of an atmospheric forecast ensemble, said predicted trajectory having associated information regarding a certain figure of merit of the aircraft trajectory;

wherein an ensemble of predicted trajectories is obtained from each atmospheric forecast ensemble, each predicted trajectory of the ensemble of predicted trajectories having an associated probability derived from the probability of each atmospheric forecast within an atmospheric forecast ensemble;

d. selecting a specific figure of merit of each aircraft predicted trajectory;

e. determining, for each predicted trajectory within an ensemble of predicted trajectories, the value of the selected figure of merit;

f. calculating, according to a predetermined statistical criterion, a statistical value of the selected figure of merit, said calculated statistical value representing, according to the selected figure of merit, all the predicted trajectories within each ensemble of predicted trajectories;

wherein said calculating includes at least one criterion for the calculation of an associated uncertainty with which a chosen predicted trajectory represents a central statistical value of a certain figure of merit;

g. determining the predicted trajectory, from each ensemble of predicted trajectories, whose value for the selected figure of merit, is closer to the previously calculated statistical value of the selected figure of merit;

h. calculating, according to a predetermined statistical criterion, the dispersion of values for the selected figure of merit, with respect to the calculated statistical value of the selected figure of merit for all the predicted trajectories of each ensemble of predicted trajectories, and

i. utilizing a selected predicted trajectory in flight management of an aircraft in at least one segment of a flight.

2. The method for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories according to claim 1, characterized in that it comprises:

a. selecting a specific figure of merit of each aircraft predicted trajectory;

b. determining, for each predicted trajectory within an ensemble of predicted trajectories, the value of the selected figure of merit;

c. calculating, according to a predetermined statistical criterion, a statistical value of the selected figure of merit, said calculated statistical value representing, according to the selected figure of merit, all the predicted trajectories within each ensemble of predicted trajectories;

d. determining the predicted trajectory, from each ensemble of predicted trajectories, whose value for the selected figure of merit, is closer to the previously calculated statistical value of the selected figure of merit;

e. calculating, according to a predetermined statistical criterion, the dispersion of values for the selected figure of merit, with respect to the calculated statistical value of the selected figure of merit for all the predicted trajectories of each ensemble of predicted trajectories.

3. The method for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories according to claim 2, characterized in that it comprises selecting a predicted trajectory, from among the calculated predicted trajectories, said selected predicted trajectory best meeting predetermined trajectory selection criteria.

4. The method for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories according to claim 1, characterized in that each of said specific signs of the Aircraft Intent Description Language is made up by the combination of at least three trajectory restrictions and four configuration instructions, wherein all the degrees of freedom of the aircraft trajectory are coped by imposing the three trajectory restrictions, thus the aircraft trajectory being completely defined by imposing the three trajectory restrictions, these restrictions selected from among at least the following:

i. longitude;

ii. latitude;

iii. altitude;

iv. true airspeed;

v. bearing;

vi. throttle;

vii. path angle;

viii. bank angle;

ix. high lift;

x. speed brakes.

5. The method for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories according to claim 1, characterized in that said figure of merit is selected from at least:

i. fuel burnt;

ii. arrival time at given fix;

iii. cost index;

iv. Range of horizontal distance covered;

v. 2D position at given time;

vi. 2D position at a given fix;

vii. 2D position over a trajectory segment;

viii. altitude at given time;

ix. altitude at a given fix;

x. altitude over a trajectory segment;

xi. 3D position at given time;

xii. 3D position at a given fix;

xiii. 3D position over over a trajectory segment;

xiv. 4D position at given time;

xv. 4D position at a given fix;

xvi. 4D position over a trajectory segment;

xvii. speed at given fix;

xviii. speed over a trajectory segment;

xix. attitude at given fix;

xx. attitude over a trajectory segment;

xxi. wake vortex at given time;

xxii. wake vortex at a given fix.

6. A system for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories, for use in flight management of an aircraft, characterized in that it comprises:

a. a processor unit, configured to calculating predicted trajectories for each segment of an aircraft flight utilizing a specific Aircraft Intent Description Language, each calculated predicted trajectory being calculated based on stochastic input data, therefore each calculated predicted trajectory being stochastic and having an associated probability, the input data selected from at least the following;

i. Aircraft Performance Model parameters;

ii. atmospheric forecasts;

b. a probabilistic Digital Meteorological Service unit, being configured to provide the processor unit for calculating predicted trajectories with the input of an ensemble of atmospheric forecasts;

c. a robust Decision Support Tool unit, being configured for;

i. providing the processor unit configured to calculating predicted trajectories with input data necessary for predicting trajectories, and;

ii. selecting a predicted trajectory from among the predicted trajectories calculated by the processor unit configured to calculating predicted trajectories;

d. characterized in that the robust decision support tool unit defines;

i. a predetermined flight trajectory including one or more parameters which define the flight trajectory, by means of imposing a combination of three trajectory restriction parameters for each segment of the flight trajectory;

ii. an aircraft performance model including one or more parameters which define aircraft response upon external conditions;

iii. parameters related to aircraft initial conditions at beginning of a segment of the flight trajectory;

iv. a set of parameters defining at least one figure of merit of a predicted trajectory calculated by the processor unit configured to calculating predicted trajectories;

v. at least one criterion to choose a predicted trajectory from among at least one ensemble of predicted trajectories calculated by the processor unit for calculating predicted trajectories, this at least one criterion based on searching which predicted trajectory best represents a central statistical value of a certain figure of merit;

vi. at least one criterion for the calculation of an associated uncertainty with which a chosen predicted trajectory represents a central statistical value of a certain figure of merit;

wherein the selected predicted trajectory is utilized by a flight management system in guidance of an aircraft in at least one segment of a flight.

7. The system for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories according to claim 6, characterized in that the probabilistic digital meteorological service unit defines:

a. an atmospheric model domain including one or more parameters that define a region enclosing the volume of airspace in which the flight trajectory lies;

b. an atmospheric model providing multiple atmospheric scenarios of atmospheric parameters relevant to the airspace, said scenarios forming ensembles of atmospheric forecasts.

8. The system for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories according to claim 6, characterized in that the robust decision support tool unit defines:

a. a predetermined flight trajectory including one or more parameters which define the flight trajectory, by means of imposing a combination of three trajectory restriction parameters for each segment of the flight trajectory;

b. an aircraft performance model including one or more parameters which define aircraft response upon external conditions;

c. parameters related to aircraft initial conditions at beginning of a segment of the flight trajectory;

d. a set of parameters defining at least one figure of merit of a predicted trajectory calculated by the processor unit configured to calculating predicted trajectories;

e. at least one criterion to choose a predicted trajectory from among at least one ensemble of predicted trajectories calculated by the processor unit configured to calculating predicted trajectories, this at least one criterion based on searching which predicted trajectory best represents a central statistical value of a certain figure of merit;

f. at least one criterion for the calculation of an associated uncertainty with which a chosen predicted trajectory represents a central statistical value of a certain figure of merit.

9. The system for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories according to claim 6, characterized in that the processor unit configured to calculating predicted trajectories:

a. determines a set of parameters from among the input parameters provided by the robust decision support tool unit, which are considered stochastic, thus these set of parameters being subjected to uncertainty;

b. determines type and range of uncertainty of the stochastic set of parameters.

10. The system for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories according to claim 6, characterized in that the processor unit configured to calculating predicted trajectories:

a. determines, based on parameters for the atmospheric model, aircraft performance model, flight trajectory description, and initial conditions, a data set representing a predicted trajectory;

b. assigns values, with respective ranges of uncertainty, to the parameters to be made stochastic, to create a plurality of possible instances of the data set representing the predicted trajectory;

c. calculates, based on the ensemble of atmospheric forecasts, an ensemble of predicted trajectories, each calculated predicted trajectory based on a corresponding atmosphere scenario;

d. assesses at least one figure of merit of each predicted trajectory within an ensemble of predicted trajectories, to obtain a population of values of these figures of merit;

e. identifies, according to a certain statistical criterion, a predicted trajectory within each ensemble of predicted trajectories, that represents a central value of the at least one figure of merit assessed;

f. obtains, according to a certain statistical criterion, a dispersion of the values of the at least one figure of merit assessed, associated with the remaining trajectories of the ensemble of predicted trajectories, with regard to the predicted trajectory identified in the previous phase.

11. The system for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories according to claim 10, characterized in that the processor unit configured to calculating predicted trajectories comprises at least:

a. a randomization engine unit, for assigning values to the parameters to be made stochastic, received from the probabilistic digital meteorological service unit and the robust decision support tool unit;

b. a trajectory computation unit, for calculating predicted trajectories based upon input data provided by the randomization engine unit.