System, method and program for estimating risk of disaster in infrastructure

• US 9,747,151 B2
• Filed: 04/24/2014
• Issued: 08/29/2017
• Est. Priority Date: 11/19/2004
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Kyndryl Incorporated
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: de Sereville, Etienne
• Primary Examiner(s): DELICH, STEPHANIE ZAGARELLA
• Application Number:
  US14/260,852
• Publication Number:
  US 20140325289A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,223 Days
• Field of Search: 705 711
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/079 Root cause analysis, i.e. error or fault diagnosis in a hardware test environment G06F11/22; in a software test environment G06F11/36
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

Method, system and computer program for estimating risk of a future disaster of an infrastructure. Times of previous, respective disasters of the infrastructure are identified. Respective severities of the previous disasters are determined. Risk of a future disaster of the infrastructure is estimated by determining a relationship between the previous disasters, their respective severities and their respective times of occurrence. The risk can be estimated by generating a polynomial linking severity and time of occurrence of each of the previous disasters. The polynomial can be generated by approximating a Tchebychev polynomial.

Claims

1. A method of estimating risk of a future failure of first and second computer systems of a computer network and taking remedial action which minimizes the risk of the future failure of the first and second computer systems, the method comprising:

a processor identifying, as first coordinates of first data points, (a) severities of previous, respective failures of the first computer system and (b) respective times of occurrences, encompassing a time range from an earliest time of occurrence T1min to a latest time of occurrence T1max, of the previous, respective failures of the first computer system, wherein the severities are the first coordinates on a severity axis and the respective times of the occurrences are the first coordinates on a perpendicular time axis;

the processor generating a first Tchebychev polynomial curve passing through all of the first data points representing the previous failures of the first computer system, and identifying peaks and ends of the first Tchebychev polynomial curve;

the processor identifying, as second coordinates of second data points, (a) severities of previous, respective failures of the second computer system and (b) respective times of occurrences, encompassing a time range from an earliest time of occurrence T2min to a latest time of occurrence T2max, of the previous, respective failures of the second computer system, wherein the severities are the second coordinates on the severity axis and the respective times of the occurrences are the second coordinates on the perpendicular time axis;

the processor generating a second Tchebychev polynomial curve passing through all of the second data points representing the previous failures of the second computer system, and identifying peaks and ends of the second Tchebychev polynomial curve; and

the processor generating a third Tchebychev polynomial curve passing through;

(i) all of the peaks of both the first Tchebychev polynomial curve and the second Tchebychev polynomial curve, (ii) the first Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T1min or the second Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T2min, and (iii) the first Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T1max or the second Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T2max; and

the processor identifying a highest peak of the third Tchebychev polynomial curve and determining that the identified highest peak is a high risk failure that occurred on the first or second computer system and is a disaster generating significant risk to the computer network and in response, causing other computers of the computer network to provide additional redundancy to minimize the significant risk to the computer network from a future occurrence of the high risk failure of the first and second computer systems.

2. The method of claim 1, the method further comprising:

the processor identifying an additional failure of the first computer system, the additional failure occurring within a predetermined time period of one of the failures of the first computer system, a severity of the one failure of the first computer system being greater than a severity of the additional failure; and

the processor determining not to use the additional failure as a data point for generating the first Tchebychev polynomial based on (a) the additional failure occurring within the predetermined time of the one failure of the first computer system and (b) the severity of the one failure of the first computer system being greater than the severity of the additional failure.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the first computer system comprises a first network of first computers including first software installed in the first computers and wherein the second computer system comprises a second network of second computers including second software installed in the second computers.

4. The method of claim 1,

wherein if time T1min is less than time T2min then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through the first Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T1min;

wherein if time T2min is less than time T1min then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through the second Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T2min;

wherein if time T1min is equal to time T2min then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through whichever Tchebychev polynomial curve of the first and second Tchebychev polynomial curves has a higher severity at time T1min;

wherein if time T1max is greater than time T2max then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through the first Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T1max;

wherein if time T2max is greater than time T1max then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through the second Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T2max;

wherein if time T1max is equal to time T2max then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through whichever Tchebychev polynomial curve of the first and second Tchebychev polynomial curves has a higher severity at time T1max.

5. A computer program product, comprising a computer readable hardware storage device having computer readable program instructions stored therein, said program instructions executable by a processor to implement a method of estimating risk of a future failure of first and second computer systems of a computer network and taking remedial action which minimizes the risk of the future failure of the first and second computer systems, the method comprising:

the processor identifying, as first coordinates of first data points, (a) severities of previous, respective failures of the first computer system and (b) respective times of occurrences, encompassing a time range from an earliest time of occurrence T1min to a latest time of occurrence T of the previous, respective failures of the first computer system, wherein the severities are the first coordinates on a severity axis and the respective times of the occurrences are the first coordinates on a perpendicular time axis;

the processor generating a first Tchebychev polynomial curve passing through all of the first data points representing the previous failures of the first computer system, and identifying peaks and ends of the first Tchebychev polynomial curve;

the processor identifying, as second coordinates of second data points, (a) severities of previous, respective failures of the second computer system and (b) respective times of occurrences, encompassing a time range from an earliest time of occurrence T2min to a latest time of occurrence T2max, of the previous, respective failures of the second computer system, wherein the severities are the second coordinates on the severity axis and the respective times of the occurrences are the second coordinates on the perpendicular time axis;

the processor generating a second Tchebychev polynomial curve passing through all of the second data points representing the previous failures of the second computer system, and identifying peaks and ends of the second Tchebychev polynomial curve; and

the processor generating a third Tchebychev polynomial curve passing through;

(i) all of the peaks of both the first Tchebychev polynomial curve and the second Tchebychev polynomial curve, (ii) the first Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T1min or the second Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T2min, and (iii) the first Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T max or the second Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T2max; and

the processor identifying a highest peak of the third Tchebychev polynomial curve and determining that the identified highest peak is a high risk failure that occurred on the first or second computer system and is a disaster generating significant risk to the computer network and in response, causing other computers of the computer network to provide additional redundancy to minimize the significant risk to the computer network from a future occurrence of the high risk failure of the first and second computer systems.

6. The computer program product of claim 5, the method further comprising:

the processor identifying an additional failure of the first computer system, the additional failure occurring within a predetermined time period of one of the failures of the first computer system, a severity of the one failure of the first computer system being greater than a severity of the additional failure; and

the processor determining not to use the additional failure as a data point for generating the first Tchebychev polynomial based on (a) the additional failure occurring within the predetermined time of the one failure of the first computer system and (b) the severity of the one failure of the first computer system being greater than the severity of the additional failure.

7. The computer program product of claim 5, wherein the first computer system comprises a first network of first computers including first software installed in the first computers, and wherein the second computer system comprises a second network of second computers including second software installed in the second computers.

8. The computer program product of claim 5,

wherein if time T1min is less than time T2min then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through the first Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T1min;

wherein if time T2min is less than time T1min then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through the second Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T2min;

wherein if time T1min is equal to time T2min then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through whichever Tchebychev polynomial curve of the first and second Tchebychev polynomial curves has a higher severity at time T1min;

wherein if time T1max is greater than time T2max then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through the first Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T1max;

wherein if time T2max is greater than time T1max then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through the second Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T2max;

wherein if time T1max is equal to time T2max then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through whichever Tchebychev polynomial curve of the first and second Tchebychev polynomial curves has a higher severity at time T1max.

9. A computer, comprising a processor, a memory, and a computer readable storage device, the storage device containing program instructions executable by the processor via the memory to implement a method of estimating risk of a future failure of first and second computer systems of a computer network and taking remedial action which minimizes the risk of the future failure of the first and second computer systems, the method comprising:

the processor identifying, as first coordinates of first data points, (a) severities of previous, respective failures of the first computer system and (b) respective times of occurrences, encompassing a time range from an earliest time of occurrence T1min to a latest time of occurrence T1max, of the previous, respective failures of the first computer system, wherein the severities are the first coordinates on a severity axis and the respective times of the occurrences are the first coordinates on a perpendicular time axis;

the processor generating a first Tchebychev polynomial curve passing through all of the first data points representing the previous failures of the first computer system, and identifying peaks and ends of the first Tchebychev polynomial curve;

the processor identifying, as second coordinates of second data points, (a) severities of previous, respective failures of the second computer system and (b) respective times of occurrences, encompassing a time range from an earliest time of occurrence T2min to a latest time of occurrence T2max, of the previous, respective failures of the second computer system, wherein the severities are the second coordinates on the severity axis and the respective times of the occurrences are the second coordinates on the perpendicular time axis;

the processor generating a second Tchebychev polynomial curve passing through all of the second data points representing the previous failures of the second computer system, and identifying peaks and ends of the second Tchebychev polynomial curve; and

the processor generating a third Tchebychev polynomial curve passing through;

(i) all of the peaks of both the first Tchebychev polynomial curve and the second Tchebychev polynomial curve, (ii) the first Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T1min or the second Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T2min, and (iii) the first Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T1max or the second Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T2max; and

the processor identifying a highest peak of the third Tchebychev polynomial curve and determining that the identified highest peak is a high risk failure that occurred on the first or second computer system and is a disaster generating significant risk to the computer network and in response, causing other computers of the computer network to provide additional redundancy to minimize the significant risk to the computer network from a future occurrence of the high risk failure of the first and second computer systems.

10. The computer of claim 9, the method further comprising:

the processor identifying an additional failure of the first computer system, the additional failure occurring within a predetermined time period of one of the failures of the first computer system, a severity of the one failure of the first computer system being greater than a severity of the additional failure; and

the processor determining not to use the additional failure as a data point for generating the first Tchebychev polynomial based on (a) the additional failure occurring within the predetermined time of the one failure of the first computer system and (b) the severity of the one failure of the first computer system being greater than the severity of the additional failure.

11. The computer of claim 9, wherein the first computer system comprises a first network of first computers including first software installed in the first computers, and wherein the second computer system comprises a second network of second computers including second software installed in the second computers.

12. The computer of claim 9,

wherein if time T1min is less than time T2min then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through the first Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T1min;

wherein if time T2min is less than time T1min then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through the second Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T2min;

wherein if time T1min is equal to time T2min then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through whichever Tchebychev polynomial curve of the first and second Tchebychev polynomial curves has a higher severity at time T1min;

wherein if time T1max is greater than time T2max then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through the first Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T1max;

wherein if time T2max is greater than time T1max then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through the second Tchebychev polynomial curve at time T2max;

wherein if time T1max is equal to time T2max then the third Tchebychev polynomial curve passes through whichever Tchebychev polynomial curve of the first and second Tchebychev polynomial curves has a higher severity at time T1max.