Computer processes for predicting media item popularity
First Claim
1. A computer-implemented method of identifying musical artists that are likely to become popular, the computer-implemented method comprising:
- determining a first set of musical artists have achieved a selected popularity level on a network-based music distribution system based at least in part on one or more popularity metrics;
retrieving artist interaction information reflecting user interaction with the music distribution system regarding the first set of musical artists;
determining a set of users of the music distribution system that interacted with content related to individual artists of the first set of musical artists prior to popularity of the individual artists, wherein the set of users are determined based at least in part on the artist interaction information;
assigning scores to individual users of the set of users, wherein a score of an individual user is based at least in part on a length of time between i) an initial interaction of the individual user with content related to the individual artists and ii) a point in time at which the individual artists achieved the selected popularity level;
retrieving early adopter interaction information reflecting interactions of the determined set of users with content of a second set of artists not yet popular on the music distribution system;
ranking the second set of artists based at least in part on the early adopter interaction information and the scores of individual users corresponding to the early adopter interaction information;
selecting at least one artist of the second set of artists based at least in part on the ranking to form a recommendation; and
transmitting the recommendation of the selected at least one artist to at least one user of the music distribution system;
wherein said method is performed entirely by a computer system that comprises one or more computing devices.
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Abstract
Systems and methods are disclosed that identify users of a media distribution system that tend to consume popular media items prior to such media items gaining popularity. For example, a set of early adopters may be identified that tend to listen to music associated with particular artists before such artists become popular. The systems and methods disclosed may also utilize identified early adopters to determine relatively obscure or unpopular media items (or creators thereof) that are likely to become popular in the future. Illustratively, an obscure artist whose content is commonly consumed by early adopters can be identified as potentially achieving widespread popularity in the future. These media items predicted to become popular or media item creators may then be recommended to other users of the media distribution system.
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Citations
13 Claims
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1. A computer-implemented method of identifying musical artists that are likely to become popular, the computer-implemented method comprising:
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determining a first set of musical artists have achieved a selected popularity level on a network-based music distribution system based at least in part on one or more popularity metrics; retrieving artist interaction information reflecting user interaction with the music distribution system regarding the first set of musical artists; determining a set of users of the music distribution system that interacted with content related to individual artists of the first set of musical artists prior to popularity of the individual artists, wherein the set of users are determined based at least in part on the artist interaction information; assigning scores to individual users of the set of users, wherein a score of an individual user is based at least in part on a length of time between i) an initial interaction of the individual user with content related to the individual artists and ii) a point in time at which the individual artists achieved the selected popularity level; retrieving early adopter interaction information reflecting interactions of the determined set of users with content of a second set of artists not yet popular on the music distribution system; ranking the second set of artists based at least in part on the early adopter interaction information and the scores of individual users corresponding to the early adopter interaction information; selecting at least one artist of the second set of artists based at least in part on the ranking to form a recommendation; and transmitting the recommendation of the selected at least one artist to at least one user of the music distribution system; wherein said method is performed entirely by a computer system that comprises one or more computing devices. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5)
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6. A system for identifying media item creators predicted to become popular, the system comprising:
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a data store configured to store user interaction information reflective of interaction of users with media items associated with a media information system; and a computer system comprising one or more computing devices, said computer system configured with specific computer-executable instructions to at least; identify one or more popular media item creators based at least in part on the user interaction information, wherein each of the one or more popular media item creators satisfies a set of popularity criteria; determine a set of users of the media information system that interacted with content related to individual media item creators of the one or more popular media item creators prior to popularity of the respective popular media item creators, wherein the set of users are determined based at least in part on the user interaction information; assign scores to individual users of the set of users, wherein a score of an individual user is based at least in part on a length of time between i) an initial interaction of the individual user with content related to the respective popular media item creators and ii) a point in time at which the respective popular media item creators satisfied the set of popularity criteria; process user interaction information associated with the determined set of users to identify a set of non-popular media item creators on the media information system interacted with by the set of users; rank the set of non-popular media item creators based at least in part on a level of interaction of the set of users with content of the non-popular media item creators and the scores of individual users of the set of users; generate a recommendation of at least one media item creator of the ranked set of non-popular media item creators to at least one user of the media information system based at least in part on a rank of the at least one media item creator; and transmit the recommendation of the at least one media item creator to a computing device associated with the at least one user. - View Dependent Claims (7, 8, 9, 10)
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11. Non-transitory computer storage having stored thereon executable instructions that direct a computer system comprising one or more computing devices to perform a process that comprises:
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determining, based on artist popularity data and recorded behaviors of users, a plurality of early adopter users that have previously listened to music of popular musical artists before such popular musical artists became popular; assigning scores to individual early adopter users of the plurality of early adopter users, wherein a score of an individual early adopter user is based at least in part on a length of time between i) an initial interaction of the individual early adopter user with individual popular musical artists and ii) a point in time at which the individual popular musical artists became popular; identifying a set of musical artists that, based on recorded behaviors of users, have not yet reached a selected popularity level; ranking the set of musical artists based at least in part on scores of the individual early adopter users and how frequently the early adopter users listen to music of the set of musical artists; generating, based at least partly on the scores of the individual early adopter users and a measure of how frequently the early adopter users listen to music of the musical artists, scores for individual musical artists of the set of musical artists that represents a likelihood that the respective individual musical artists will at least reach the selected popularity level; generating, from at least the scores of the individual musical artists, a recommendation of at least one musical artist; and transmitting the recommendation to a computing device of a user. - View Dependent Claims (12, 13)
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Specification