Railway track geometry defect modeling for predicting deterioration, derailment risk, and optimal repair
First Claim
1. A method, comprising:
- logically dividing a railroad network according to spatial and temporal dimensions with respect to historical data collected for the railroad network, the spatial dimensions including line segments of a specified length and the temporal dimensions including inspection run data for inspections performed for each of the line segments over a specified period of time;
creating, via a computer processor, a track deterioration model from the historical data, current track conditions collected from one or more data sources, and traffic data;
identifying geo-defects occurring at each inspection run from the track deterioration model;
analyzing quantified changes in the geo-defects measured at each inspection run;
predicting from the quantified changes in the geo-defects, where at least one of the geo-defects is a Class II geo-defect, with an amplitude below a tolerance level of a safety standard, a probability of the least one Class II geo-defect deteriorating into a Class I defect with an amplitude in violation of the safety standard, within a specified period of time, the Class I defect defined as one that is mandated to be repaired upon discovery;
upon determining the probability reaches a threshold value, scheduling a repair to remedy the at least one Class II geo-defect within the specified period of time;
upon determining the probability does not reach a threshold value, determining a repair decision based on historically determined costs associated with previous comparable repairs; and
initiating the repair decision;
whereindetermining the repair decision comprises minimizing a minimum total expected cost based on the historically determined costs.
1 Assignment
0 Petitions
Accused Products
Abstract
Geo-defect repair modeling is provided. A method includes logically dividing a railroad network according to spatial and temporal dimensions with respect to historical data collected. The spatial dimensions include line segments of a specified length and the temporal dimensions include inspection run data for inspections performed for each of the line segments over a period of time. The method also includes creating a track deterioration model from the historical data, identifying geo-defects occurring at each inspection run from the track deterioration model, calculating a track deterioration condition from the track deterioration model by analyzing quantified changes in the geo-defects measured at each inspection run, and calculating a derailment risk based on track conditions determined from the inspection run data and the track deterioration condition. The method further includes determining a repair decision for each of the geo-defects based on the derailment risk and costs associated with previous comparable repairs.
40 Citations
18 Claims
-
1. A method, comprising:
logically dividing a railroad network according to spatial and temporal dimensions with respect to historical data collected for the railroad network, the spatial dimensions including line segments of a specified length and the temporal dimensions including inspection run data for inspections performed for each of the line segments over a specified period of time; creating, via a computer processor, a track deterioration model from the historical data, current track conditions collected from one or more data sources, and traffic data; identifying geo-defects occurring at each inspection run from the track deterioration model; analyzing quantified changes in the geo-defects measured at each inspection run; predicting from the quantified changes in the geo-defects, where at least one of the geo-defects is a Class II geo-defect, with an amplitude below a tolerance level of a safety standard, a probability of the least one Class II geo-defect deteriorating into a Class I defect with an amplitude in violation of the safety standard, within a specified period of time, the Class I defect defined as one that is mandated to be repaired upon discovery; upon determining the probability reaches a threshold value, scheduling a repair to remedy the at least one Class II geo-defect within the specified period of time; upon determining the probability does not reach a threshold value, determining a repair decision based on historically determined costs associated with previous comparable repairs; and initiating the repair decision;
whereindetermining the repair decision comprises minimizing a minimum total expected cost based on the historically determined costs. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11)
-
12. A computer program product comprising a computer-readable storage medium having program code embodied thereon, wherein the computer readable storage medium is not a transitory signal per se, which when executed by a computer processor, causes the computer processor to implement a method, the method comprising:
-
logically dividing a railroad network according to spatial and temporal dimensions with respect to historical data collected for the railroad network, the spatial dimensions including line segments of a specified length and the temporal dimensions including inspection run data for inspections performed for each of the line segments over a specified period of time; creating, via a computer processor, a track deterioration model from the historical data, current track conditions collected from one or more data sources, and traffic data; identifying geo-defects occurring at each inspection run from the track deterioration model; analyzing quantified changes in the geo-defects measured at each inspection run; predicting from the quantified changes in the geo-defects, where at least one of the geo-defects is a Class II geo-defect, with an amplitude below a tolerance level of a safety standard, a probability of the least one Class II geo-defect deteriorating into a Class I defect with an amplitude in violation of the safety standard, within a specified period of time, the Class I defect defined as one that is mandated to be repaired upon discovery; upon determining the probability reaches a threshold value, scheduling a repair to remedy the at least one Class II geo-defect within the specified period of time; upon determining the probability does not reach a threshold value, determining a repair decision based on historically determined costs associated with previous comparable repairs; and initiating the repair decision;
whereindetermining the repair decision comprises minimizing a minimum total expected cost based on the historically determined costs. - View Dependent Claims (13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18)
-
Specification