Method for integrating individual load forecasts into a composite load forecast to present a comprehensive, synchronized and harmonized load forecast

• US 9,851,700 B2
• Filed: 08/28/2013
• Issued: 12/26/2017
• Est. Priority Date: 07/02/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: General Electric Technology GmbH (GE Vernova, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: General Electric Technology GmbH (GE Vernova, Inc.)
• Inventors: Sun, David, Cheung, Kwok, Chung, Kenneth, McKeag, Tory
• Primary Examiner(s): Norton, Jennifer L
• Application Number:
  US14/012,853
• Publication Number:
  US 20140005849A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,581 Days
• Field of Search: 700286
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 13/02 electric
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/00 Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

A method is provided for merging different load forecasts for power grid centers. Area load forecasts are accepted from load forecast engines. A relational database saves load forecast engine data. A comprehensive operating plan integrates individual load forecasts into a composite load forecast to present a comprehensive, synchronized and harmonized load forecast.

Claims

1. A method, comprising:

receiving, by a system comprising a processing device, area load forecasts that forecast conditions associated with a power grid, wherein respective area load forecasts are associated with a set of multi-stage engines that utilize different area load forecasting processes, and wherein at least one area load forecasting process is a security constrained unit commitment process and at least one other area load forecasting process is a security constrained economic scheduling process;

integrating, by the system, the area load forecasts into a composite load forecast, wherein the respective area load forecasts have different forecast time periods and include at least some overlapping forecast time periods, and wherein the integrating comprises merging overlapping portions of the area load forecasts based upon a weighted average of values in the overlapping portions according to respective weighting factors associated with the area load forecasts; and

executing, by the system via the set of multi-stage engines, a comprehensive operating plan based on the composite load forecast to dispatch resources of the power grid to generate power.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

integrating, by the system based on the composite load forecast, at least one of scheduling of the resources, commitment of the resources, or the dispatch of the resources associated with the set of the multi-stage engines into the comprehensive operating plan that synchronizes at least one of the scheduling of resources, the commitment of the resources, or the dispatch of the resources associated with the set of the multi-stage engines.

3. The method of claim 2, further comprising:

generating, by the system based on the comprehensive operating plan, a unified scheduling framework comprising data that facilitates coordination of a series of resource scheduling processes.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising smoothing, by the system, a portion of the composite load forecast at a transitional boundary between two area load forecasts of the area load forecasts.

5. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

based on a most recent complete composite load forecast, generating, by the system, an area load forecast associated with a multi-stage engine of the multistage engines.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

generating, by the system, an area load forecast associated with a multi-stage engine based on a determined forecast time period of a respective load forecasting process of the area load forecasting processes.

7. A system, comprising:

a memory to store executable instructions; and

a processor, coupled to the memory, that executes or facilitates execution of the executable instructions to at least;

receive area load forecasts from a set of multi-stage engines that forecast conditions of a power grid, wherein the multi-stage engines of the set of multi-stage engines are associated with different area load forecasting processes that utilize different time intervals, respectively, and wherein at least one area load forecasting process is a security constrained unit commitment process and at least one other area load forecasting process is a security constrained economic scheduling process;

integrate the area load forecasts into a composite load forecast representing a time synchronized load forecast associated with resources of the power grid, wherein respective area load forecasts have different forecast time periods and include at least some overlapping forecast time periods, and the composite load forecast comprises a merging of overlapping portions of the area load forecasts based upon a weighted average of values in the overlapping portions according to respective weighting factors associated with the area load forecasts; and

execute, via the set of multi-stage engines, a comprehensive operating plan based on the composite load forecast to dispatch resources of the power grid to generate power.

8. The system of claim 7, wherein the processor further executes or facilitates the execution of the executable instructions to modify an area load forecast of the area load forecasts based on input received by the system.

9. The system of claim 7, wherein the processor further executes or facilitates the execution of the executable instructions to generate the composite load forecast based on a selection criterion.

10. The system of claim 9, wherein the selection criterion comprises at least one of a geographic location, a time range, a cost associated with the resources of the power grid, or a periodic interval.

11. The system of claim 7, wherein the processor further executes or facilitates the execution of the executable instructions to send case data to another system representing an analysis case result defining a result of the integration.

12. The system of claim 7, wherein the processor further executes or facilitates the execution of the executable instructions to integrate the area load forecasts based on a criterion associated with at least one of scheduling of the resources, commitment of the resources, or dispatch of the resources associated with the plurality of multistage engines.

13. A non-transitory computer-readable medium having executable components stored thereon that, in response to execution, cause an apparatus comprising a processor to perform operations, the components comprising:

a set of multi-stage engine components configured to generate, based on different area load forecasting processes, area load forecasts that estimate future conditions associated with a power supply grid, wherein at least one area load forecasting process is a security constrained unit commitment process and at least one other area load forecasting process is a security constrained economic scheduling process;

a demand forecast integrator component configured to integrate, based on a criterion, at least a subset of the area load forecasts into a composite load forecast, wherein respective area forecasts of the at least the subset of the area load forecasts have different forecast time periods and include at least some overlapping forecast time periods, and the composite load forecast comprises a merging of overlapping portions of the area load forecasts based upon a weighted average of values in the overlapping portions according to respective weighting factors associated with the area load forecasts; and

the set of multi-stage engine components further configured to execute a comprehensive operating plan based on the composite load forecast to dispatch resources of the power supply grid to generate power.

14. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein the components further comprise:

an interface component configured to display at least the subset of the area load forecasts and receive input data to modify at least the subset of the area load forecasts based on changes to the area load forecasts.

15. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 14, wherein the demand forecast integrator component is further configured to verify, based on a security criterion, whether or not the changes are valid.

16. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein the demand forecast integrator component is further configured to select at least the subset of the area load forecasts that are associated with a defined time range to form the composite load forecast.

17. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein the demand forecast integrator component is further configured to, based on the composite load forecast, at least one of schedule the resources, commit the resources, or the dispatch the resources associated with the set of the multi-stage engine components, to generate the comprehensive operating plan that represents a synchronized operating plan for at least one of the scheduling of the resources, commitment of the resources, or dispatching of the resources associated with the set of the multi-stage engine components.

18. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17, wherein the multi-stage engine components are further configured to, in response to an output of the demand forecast integrator component, generate the comprehensive operating plan, generate an updated set of the area load forecasts, and wherein, the demand forecast integrator component is further configured to integrate the updated set of the area load forecasts into the composite load forecast.

19. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein the components further comprise:

a persistence resource component that supports auditing and archiving of the area load forecasts.

20. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein the multi-stage engine components are further configured to generate respective area load forecasts at a different time to provide at least one of scheduling of resources, commitment of the resources or dispatch of the resources.

21. A system, comprising:

a processor for receiving area load forecasts that forecast conditions of a power supply grid, wherein the area load forecasts are associated with a set of multi-stage engines and associated with disparate area load forecasting processes, wherein at least one area load forecasting process is a security constrained unit commitment process and at least one other area load forecasting process is a security constrained economic scheduling process;

the processor for integrating the area load forecasts into a composite load forecast representing a synchronized load forecast associated with a power grid, wherein respective area load forecasts have different forecast time periods and include at least some overlapping forecast time periods, and wherein the integrating comprises merging overlapping portions of the area load forecasts based upon a weighted average of values in the overlapping portions according to respective weighting factors associated with the area load forecasts; and

the processor for executing a comprehensive operating plan based on the composite load forecast to dispatch resources of the power supply grid to generate power.