Adaptive traffic dynamics prediction
First Claim
1. A computer implemented method comprising:
- storing, by a processor in a database stored in a memory, a plurality of speed profiles each of which comprises data indicative of observed travel speeds along a portion of a road network during a prior time period;
storing, in the memory by the processor, data indicative of real-time speed of travel along the portion of the road network;
identifying based on a future time period, by the processor coupled with the database, a subset of the plurality of speed profiles comprising at least two of the plurality of speed profiles; and
determining, by the processor based on the data indicative of the real-time speed of travel and the identified subset of the plurality of speed profiles, one or more predicted traffic dynamics for the future time period for the portion of the road network.
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Abstract
The disclosed embodiments relate to prediction of traffic dynamics. A descriptive model is provided that uses historical probe data to create “tidal-like” patterns for the usual dynamics on the road network and creates a framework for taking a future time, e.g. in terms of month, day, time, and suggesting a typical speed for the specified road network link at that specific time. With this model, better predictions for estimated time of arrival will be derived. As opposed to blindly extrapolating from a static model, the disclosed embodiments dynamically adapt to current conditions using real time data to adapt, based on current conditions, the model from which a predicted speed may be determined.
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Citations
20 Claims
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1. A computer implemented method comprising:
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storing, by a processor in a database stored in a memory, a plurality of speed profiles each of which comprises data indicative of observed travel speeds along a portion of a road network during a prior time period; storing, in the memory by the processor, data indicative of real-time speed of travel along the portion of the road network; identifying based on a future time period, by the processor coupled with the database, a subset of the plurality of speed profiles comprising at least two of the plurality of speed profiles; and determining, by the processor based on the data indicative of the real-time speed of travel and the identified subset of the plurality of speed profiles, one or more predicted traffic dynamics for the future time period for the portion of the road network. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)
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11. A system comprising:
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a processor and a memory coupled therewith, the memory comprising data indicative of real-time speed of travel along a portion of a road network; a database stored in the memory, the database comprising a plurality of speed profiles each of which comprises data indicative of observed travel speeds along the portion of the road network during a prior time period; first logic stored in the memory and executable by the processor to cause the processor to identify, based on a future time period, a subset of the plurality of speed profiles comprising at least two of the plurality of speed profiles; and second logic stored in the memory and executable by the processor to cause the processor to determine, based on the data indicative of the real-time speed of travel and the identified subset of the plurality of speed profiles, one or more predicted traffic dynamics for the future time period for the portion of the road network. - View Dependent Claims (12, 13, 14, 15, 16)
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17. A system comprising:
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a real time speed model operative to provide data indicative of real-time speed of travel along a portion of a road network; a historical speed model coupled with the real time speed model and operative to access, based on a future time period, a database including a plurality of speed profiles each of which comprises data indicative of observed travel speeds along the portion of the road network during a prior time period and obtain therefrom a subset of the plurality of speed profiles comprising at least two of the plurality of speed profiles; and a traffic dynamics predictor coupled with the historical speed model and the real time speed model and operative to determine, based on the data indicative of the real-time speed of travel and the obtained subset of the plurality of speed profiles, one or more predicted traffic dynamics for the future time period for the portion of the road network. - View Dependent Claims (18, 19, 20)
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Specification