Traffic prediction using real-world transportation data

• US 9,996,798 B2
• Filed: 03/09/2016
• Issued: 06/12/2018
• Est. Priority Date: 10/23/2012
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: University of Southern California
• Original Assignee: University of Southern California
• Inventors: Pan, Bei, Demiryurek, Ugur, Shahabi, Cyrus
• Primary Examiner(s): Olszewski, John
• Assistant Examiner(s): Merlino, David P.
• Application Number:
  US15/065,756
• Publication Number:
  US 20160189044A1
• Time in Patent Office: 825 Days
• Field of Search: None
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/04 Inference or reasoning models
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/00 Traffic control systems for road vehicles arrangement of road signs or traffic signals E01F9/00 ; automatic vehicle control B62D
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0112 from the vehicle, e.g. floating car data [FCD]
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0129 for creating historical data or processing based on historical data
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0141 for traffic information dissemination

Abstract

Systems and techniques for enhancing accuracy of traffic prediction include a system of one or more computers operable to receive a request relating to traffic prediction, compare a first prediction error for a first (moving average) traffic prediction model with a second prediction error for a second (historical average) traffic prediction model, calculated using a historical data set selected from previously recorded traffic data in accordance with a day and time associated with the request, select use of the first model or the second model based on the comparison of prediction errors, and provide an output for use in traffic prediction, wherein the output comes from applying the first traffic prediction model when the first prediction error is less than the second prediction error, and the output comes from applying the second traffic prediction model when the first prediction error is not less than the second prediction error.

Claims

1. A method comprising:

receiving, by one or more computers, a request relating to traffic prediction, the request having an associated day and an associated time;

comparing, by the one or more computers, a first prediction error for a first traffic prediction model with a second prediction error for a second traffic prediction model, wherein the first traffic prediction model comprises a moving average model that exhibits increased prediction accuracy as a prediction time horizon is reduced, the second traffic prediction model comprises a historical average model that exhibits similar prediction accuracy across multiple prediction time horizons, and both the first prediction error and the second prediction error are calculated using a historical data set selected from previously recorded traffic data in accordance with the associated day and the associated time;

selecting, by the one or more computers, use of the first traffic prediction model when the first prediction error is less than the second prediction error for the associated day and the associated time;

selecting, by the one or more computers, use of the second traffic prediction model when the first prediction error is not less than the second prediction error for the associated day and the associated time; and

providing an output for use in traffic prediction by the one or more computers, wherein the output comes from applying the first traffic prediction model when the first prediction error is less than the second prediction error, and the output comes from applying the second traffic prediction model when the first prediction error is not less than the second prediction error.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the associated day and the associated time are based on a time and time horizon associated with the request.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data set is selected from the previously recorded traffic data by identifying a subset of the previously recorded traffic data that exhibits similar traffic conditions on a specific day of week, month or season that matches the associated day for the request.

4. The method of claim 1, comprising:

receiving information regarding an event that has one or more attributes that are correlated with reduction in traffic flow on one or more roads of a road network approaching the event;

calculating an influenced speed change and an influenced time shift, for a sensor associated with the road network, based on the information regarding the event; and

using the influenced speed change and the influenced time shift in application of the first traffic prediction model.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein calculating the influenced speed change and the influenced time shift comprises calculating based on attributes for the event comprising (i) start time, (ii) location, (iii) direction, (iv) event type, and (v) affected lanes.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the previously recorded traffic data comprises data derived from mobile sensor data.

7. The method of claim 6, comprising generating the derived data by performing operations comprising:

calculating speeds for multiple mobile sensors from mobile sensor data with respect to connected road segments in a road network; and

generating a speed for a road segment of the connected road segments by calculating an aggregation of all speeds calculated for mobile sensors passing the road segment at a given time.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein the mobile sensor data is obtained from public transit vehicles.

9. A system comprising:

a user interface device; and

one or more computers operable to interact with the user interface device, the one or more computers comprising at least one processor and at least one memory device, and the one or more computers configured and arranged to perform operations comprising (i) receiving a request relating to traffic prediction, the request having an associated day and an associated time, (ii) determining how much to apply each of a first traffic prediction model and a second traffic prediction model based on previously recorded traffic data corresponding to the associated day and the associated time, wherein the first traffic prediction model comprises a moving average model that exhibits increased prediction accuracy as a prediction time horizon is reduced, and the second traffic prediction model comprises a historical average model that exhibits similar prediction accuracy across multiple prediction time horizons, and (iii) applying the first and second traffic prediction models in accordance with the determining to generate an output for use in relation to traffic prediction by the one or more computers;

wherein the one or more computers are configured and arranged to perform operations comprising (i) receiving information regarding an event that has one or more attributes that are correlated with reduction in traffic flow on one or more roads of a road network approaching the event, (ii) calculating an influenced speed change and an influenced time shift, for a sensor associated with the road network, based on the information regarding the event including start time, location, direction, and severity of the event as compared with similar historical events, and (iii) using the influenced speed change and the influenced time shift in application of the first traffic prediction model.

10. The system of claim 9, wherein the one or more computers comprise a server operable to interact with the user interface device through a data communication network, and the user interface device is operable to interact with the server as a client.

11. The system of claim 10, wherein the user interface device comprises a mobile phone.

12. The system of claim 9, wherein the one or more computers comprises one personal computer, and the personal computer comprises the user interface device.

13. A system comprising:

a user interface device; and

one or more computers operable to interact with the user interface device, the one or more computers comprising at least one processor and at least one memory device, and the one or more computers configured and arranged to (i) receive a request relating to traffic prediction, the request having an associated day and an associated time, (ii) compare a first prediction error for a first traffic prediction model with a second prediction error for a second traffic prediction model, wherein the first traffic prediction model comprises a moving average model that exhibits increased prediction accuracy as a prediction time horizon is reduced, the second traffic prediction model comprises a historical average model that exhibits similar prediction accuracy across multiple prediction time horizons, and both the first prediction error and the second prediction error are calculated using a historical data set selected from previously recorded traffic data in accordance with the associated day and the associated time, (iii) select use of the first traffic prediction model when the first prediction error is less than the second prediction error for the associated day and the associated time, (iv) select use of the second traffic prediction model when the first prediction error is not less than the second prediction error for the associated day and the associated time, and (v) provide an output for use in traffic prediction by the one or more computers, wherein the output comes from applying the first traffic prediction model when the first prediction error is less than the second prediction error, and the output comes from applying the second traffic prediction model when the first prediction error is not less than the second prediction error.

14. The system of claim 13, wherein the associated day and the associated time are based on a time and time horizon associated with the request.

15. The system of claim 13, wherein the historical data set is selected from the previously recorded traffic data by identifying a subset of the previously recorded traffic data that exhibits similar traffic conditions on a specific day of week, month or season that matches the associated day for the request.

16. The system of claim 13, wherein the one or more computers are configured and arranged to receive information regarding an event that has one or more attributes that are correlated with reduction in traffic flow on one or more roads of a road network approaching the event, calculate an influenced speed change and an influenced time shift, for a sensor associated with the road network, based on the information regarding the event, and use the influenced speed change and the influenced time shift in application of the first traffic prediction model.

17. The system of claim 16, wherein the one or more computers are configured and arranged to calculate the influenced speed change and the influenced time shift based on attributes for the event comprising (i) start time, (ii) location, (iii) direction, (iv) event type, and (v) affected lanes.

18. The system of claim 13, wherein the previously recorded traffic data comprises data derived from mobile sensor data.

19. The system of claim 18, wherein the one or more computers are configured and arranged to generate the derived data, the one or more computers being configured and arranged to calculate speeds for multiple mobile sensors from mobile sensor data with respect to connected road segments in a road network, and generate a speed for a road segment of the connected road segments by calculating an aggregation of all speeds calculated for mobile sensors passing the road segment at a given time.

20. The system of claim 19, wherein the mobile sensor data is obtained from public transit vehicles.