Systems and methods for predictive reliability mining
First Claim
1. A computer implemented method for predictive reliability mining in a population of connected machines, the method comprising:
- identifying sets of discriminative Diagnostic Trouble Codes (DTCs) from DTCs generated preceding failure, the sets of discriminative DTCs corresponding to associated pre-defined parts of the connected machines;
generating a temporal conditional dependence model based on temporal dependence between failure of the pre-defined parts from past failure data and the identified sets of discriminative DTCs;
segregating the population of connected machines into a first set comprising connected machines in which DTCs are not generated in a given time period and a second set comprising connected machines in which at least one DTC is generated in the given time period; and
predicting future failures based on the generated temporal conditional dependence model and occurrence and non-occurrence of DTCs in the segregated population of connected machines.
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Abstract
Systems and methods for predictive reliability mining are provided that enable predicting of unexpected emerging failures in future without waiting for actual failures to start occurring in significant numbers. Sets of discriminative Diagnostic Trouble Codes (DTCs) from connected machines in a population are identified before failure of the associated parts. A temporal conditional dependence model based on the temporal dependence between the failure of the parts from past failure data and the identified sets of discriminative DTCs is generated. Future failures are predicted based on the generated temporal conditional dependence and root cause analysis of the predicted future failures is performed for predictive reliability mining. The probability of failure is computed based on both occurrence and non-occurrence of DTCs. The root cause analysis enables identifying a subset of the population when an early warning is generated and also when an early warning is not generated.
17 Citations
16 Claims
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1. A computer implemented method for predictive reliability mining in a population of connected machines, the method comprising:
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identifying sets of discriminative Diagnostic Trouble Codes (DTCs) from DTCs generated preceding failure, the sets of discriminative DTCs corresponding to associated pre-defined parts of the connected machines; generating a temporal conditional dependence model based on temporal dependence between failure of the pre-defined parts from past failure data and the identified sets of discriminative DTCs; segregating the population of connected machines into a first set comprising connected machines in which DTCs are not generated in a given time period and a second set comprising connected machines in which at least one DTC is generated in the given time period; and predicting future failures based on the generated temporal conditional dependence model and occurrence and non-occurrence of DTCs in the segregated population of connected machines. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13)
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14. A system for predictive reliability mining in a population of connected machines, the system comprising:
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one or more hardware processors; a communication interface device; one or more internal data storage devices operatively coupled to the one or more processors for storing; an input module configured to receive Diagnostic Trouble Codes (DTCs) from on-board diagnostic systems of pre-defined parts of the connected machines; a DTC pattern identifier configured to identify sets of discriminative DTCs from the DTCs generated preceding failure, the sets of discriminative DTCs corresponding to associated pre-defined parts of the connected machines; a Bayesian network generator configured to; generate a temporal conditional dependence model based on temporal dependence between failure of the pre-defined parts from past failure data and the identified sets of discriminative DTCs; and segregate the population of connected machines into a first set comprising connected machines in which DTCs are not generated in a given time period and a second set comprising connected machines in which at least one DTC is generated in the given time period; and a failure predictor configured to predict future failures based on the generated temporal conditional dependence and occurrence and non-occurrence of DTCs in the segregated population of connected machines. - View Dependent Claims (15)
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16. A computer program product comprising a non-transitory computer readable medium having a computer readable program embodied therein, wherein the computer readable program, when executed on a computing device, causes the computing device to:
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identify sets of discriminative Diagnostic Trouble Codes (DTCs) from DTCs generated preceding failure, the sets of discriminative DTCs corresponding to associated pre-defined parts of the connected machines; generate a temporal conditional dependence model based on temporal dependence between failure of the pre-defined parts from past failure data and the identified sets of discriminative DTCs; segregate the population of connected machines into a first set comprising connected machines in which DTCs are not generated in a given time period and a second set comprising connected machines in which at least one DTC is generated in the given time period; and predict future failures based on the generated temporal conditional dependence model and occurrence and non-occurrence of DTCs in the segregated population of connected machines.
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Specification