Cohort-based prediction of a future event

• US 10,318,877 B2
• Filed: 10/18/2011
• Issued: 06/11/2019
• Est. Priority Date: 10/19/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Byrne, Daniel J., Byrne, Mark W., Friedlander, Robert R., Hennessy, Richard, Kraemer, James R.
• Primary Examiner(s): Reyes, Reginald R
• Application Number:
  US13/275,483
• Publication Number:
  US 20120095948A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,793 Days
• Field of Search: 705 3, 705 2
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks

Abstract

A processor-implemented method, computer program product, and/or computer system predicts a future event. A first bit array, which describes characteristics of a single entity while experiencing a first event, is generated using values received from a set of physical test devices. After the first single entity experiences a different second event, a second bit array is generated from another set of physical test devices. The second bit array describes characteristics of an event cohort, which is made up of entities, other than the single entity, which also experience the second event, but which never experienced the first event. When another single entity experiences the first event, a determination is made as to whether that other single entity has characteristics from both the first bit array and the second bit array. If so, a prediction is made that the other single entity will also experience the second event.

Claims

1. A method comprising:

a processor generating a first bit array, wherein the first bit array comprises a first set of values that describes a first set of characteristics of a first single entity when said first single entity experiences a first event, wherein the processor receives the first set of values as electronic signals from a first set of physical test devices, wherein the first set of characteristics do not cause the first event, wherein the first set of values generated by the physical test devices does not describe the first event, and wherein the first set of values is not a result of the first event;

the processor generating a second bit array, wherein the second bit array comprises a second set of values that identifies a second set of characteristics of an event cohort, wherein the event cohort is made up of multiple other entities that experience a second event, wherein the second event includes a medical condition, wherein the multiple other entities never experienced the first event, wherein the processor receives the second set of values from a second set of physical test devices that is functionally different from the first set of physical test devices, wherein the second set of characteristics alone do not cause the medical condition, and wherein no shared common characteristics are represented in both the first bit array and the second bit array;

the processor receiving a third bit array that describes characteristics of a second single entity that is experiencing the first event;

the processor determining that the third bit array comprises values from the first bit array and the second bit array;

the processor determining a percentage of bits from the third bit array that match bits from the first bit array and the second bit array;

in response to the processor determining that the percentage is at a first predefined level, the processor predicting that the second single entity will experience the medical condition at a first future time;

in response to the processor determining that the percentage is at a second predefined level, the processor predicting that the second single entity will experience the medical condition at a second future time, wherein the first predefined level is greater than the second predefined level, and wherein the first future time is reached before the second future time; and

in response to the processor determining that the percentage is at the second predefined level, administering a medical pharmaceutical treatment for the medical condition to the second single entity at the first future time, wherein the second event further comprises administering the medical pharmaceutical treatment to the second single entity for the medical condition.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

the processor time shifting the second bit array before the second event to form a time-shifted second bit array, wherein the time-shifted second bit array represents characteristics that are associated with the event cohort before the second event occurs.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

the processor time shifting the second bit array after the second event to form a time-shifted second bit array, wherein the time-shifted second bit array represents characteristics that are associated with the event cohort after the second event occurs.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

the processor determining that outputs from a specific set of physical test devices are unaffected by the medical pharmaceutical treatment; and

the processor selecting the specific set of physical test devices as the first set of physical test devices.

5. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

the processor identifying an event characteristic that is associated with a third event, wherein the third event has been predetermined to be unrelated to the second event, and wherein the third event occurs contemporaneously with the second event; and

the processor removing any bit from the second bit array that describes the event characteristic that is associated with the third event.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

the processor determining that the first event and the second event are different types of events; and

the processor establishing a relationship between the first event and the second event through use of a Bayesian algorithm that establishes a correlation between the first event and the second event based on common entities that experience the first event and the second event.

7. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

the processor determining that the third bit array comprises all values from the first bit array and all values from the second bit array; and

the processor predicting, based on the third bit array comprising all values from the first bit array and all values from the second bit array, that the second single entity will experience the second event at the first future time.

8. A method comprising:

a processor generating a first bit array, wherein the first bit array comprises a first set of values that describes a first set of characteristics of a first single entity when said first single entity experiences a first event, wherein the processor receives the first set of values as electronic signals from a first set of physical test devices, wherein the first set of characteristics do not cause the first event, wherein the first event is a medical pharmaceutical treatment, wherein the first set of values generated by the physical test devices does not describe the first event, and wherein the first set of values is not a result of the first event;

the processor determining that outputs from a specific set of physical test devices are unaffected by the medical pharmaceutical treatment;

the processor selecting the specific set of physical test devices as the first set of physical test devices;

the processor generating a second bit array, wherein the second bit array comprises a second set of values that identifies a second set of characteristics of an event cohort, wherein the event cohort is made up of multiple other entities that experience a second event, wherein the second event comprises a medical condition, wherein the multiple other entities never experienced the first event, wherein the processor receives the second set of values from a second set of physical test devices that is functionally different from the first set of physical test devices, wherein the second set of characteristics alone do not cause the second event, and wherein no shared common characteristics are represented in both the first bit array and the second bit array;

the processor receiving a third bit array that describes characteristics of a second single entity that is experiencing the first event;

the processor determining that the third bit array comprises values from the first bit array and the second bit array; and

in response to the processor determining that the third bit array comprises values from the first bit array and the second bit array, administering a medical pharmaceutical treatment to the second single entity for the medical condition, wherein the second event further comprises the medical pharmaceutical treatment for the medical condition.

9. A method comprising:

a processor generating a first bit array, wherein the first bit array comprises a first set of values that describes a first set of characteristics of a first single entity when said first single entity experiences a first event, wherein the processor receives the first set of values as electronic signals from a first set of physical test devices, wherein the first set of characteristics do not cause the first event, wherein the first event is a medical treatment, wherein the first set of values generated by the physical test devices does not describe the first event, and wherein the first set of values is not a result of the first event;

the processor generating a second bit array, wherein the second bit array comprises a second set of values that identifies a second set of characteristics of an event cohort, wherein the event cohort is made up of multiple other entities that experience a second event, wherein the second event comprises a medical condition, wherein the multiple other entities never experienced the first event, wherein the processor receives the second set of values from a second set of physical test devices that is functionally different from the first set of physical test devices, wherein the second set of characteristics alone do not cause the second event, and wherein no shared common characteristics are represented in both the first bit array and the second bit array;

the processor identifying an event characteristic that is associated with a third event, wherein the third event has been predetermined to be unrelated to the second event, and wherein the third event occurs contemporaneously with the second event; and

the processor removing any bit from the second bit array that describes the event characteristic that is associated with the third event;

the processor receiving a third bit array that describes characteristics of a second single entity that is experiencing the first event;

the processor determining that the third bit array comprises values from the first bit array and the second bit array; and

in response to the processor determining that the third bit array comprises values from the first bit array and the second bit array, administering a pharmaceutical treatment to the second single entity for the medical condition, wherein the second event further comprises the pharmaceutical treatment for the medical condition.