Power demand estimating apparatus, method, program, and demand suppressing schedule planning apparatus

• US 10,345,770 B2
• Filed: 02/20/2014
• Issued: 07/09/2019
• Est. Priority Date: 03/15/2013
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Inventors: Noda, Hideki, Toba, Koji, Morimoto, Takashi, Miyazaki, Kazuhiko, Nishimura, Noriko, Yamada, Takahiro
• Primary Examiner(s): Dunn, Darrin D
• Application Number:
  US14/776,286
• Publication Number:
  US 20160033949A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,965 Days
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 15/02 electric
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 1/3287 by switching off individual functional units in the computer system
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0631 Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

A power demand estimating apparatus includes a demand data memory, a demand estimator, and a display. The demand data memory stores plural power demand patterns and power demand amount data. The demand estimator selects, from the demand data memory, the demand pattern matching the environmental condition on an estimation day, obtains the maximum value of an power demand amount and the minimum value thereof at an expected temperature on the estimation day, calculates, using those pieces of information, the power demand amount per a unit time on the estimation day, and creates a demand estimating model. The display displays, together with the power demand pattern selected by the demand estimator, the demand estimating model.

Claims

1. A power demand estimating apparatus that estimates a power demand on a designated estimation day, the apparatus comprising:

a demand data memory storing;

a plurality of power demand patterns which are classified in accordance with an environmental condition, and which show a power demand rate per a unit time;

power demand amount data per temperature gathering up a maximum value and a minimum value of a power demand amount at each temperature; and

a plurality of power-demand fluctuation patterns which are classified in accordance with the environmental condition and which show a demand fluctuation rate per a unit time due to a temperature change;

a demand record memory storing a demand record, the demand record being obtained by classifying, in accordance with the environmental condition, the power demand amount at an area subjected to an estimation measured per a unit time;

a demand estimator selecting the demand pattern that matches the environmental condition on the estimation day from the demand data memory, obtaining the maximum value and the minimum value of the power demand amount at an expected temperature on the estimation day from the power demand amount data per temperature, calculating the power demand amount per a unit time on the estimation day, and creating a demand estimating model on the estimation day; and

a display displaying the demand estimating model on the estimation day together with the power demand pattern selected by the demand estimator,

wherein;

the demand estimator extracts, from the demand record memory, the demand record that matches the environmental condition per a unit time on the estimation day, and obtains, from the demand data memory, the power-demand fluctuation pattern that matches the environmental condition on the estimation day; and

the demand estimator corrects the power demand amount by obtaining a difference between the temperature of the demand record and an expected temperature on the estimation day, calculating a correction coefficient by multiplying the difference by a power demand fluctuation rate per a unit time in the power-demand fluctuation pattern, and adding the correction coefficient to the power demand amount per a unit time in the demand record, and creates the demand estimating model on the estimation day.

2. The power demand estimating apparatus according to claim 1, wherein:

the environmental condition is defined by a season, a type of day including a weekday or a non-work day, and, a weather; and

the environmental condition of the power demand pattern selected by the demand estimator is displayed on the display together with the power demand pattern.

3. The power demand estimating apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the power demand amount data per temperature is displayed on the display together with the demand estimating model on the estimation day and the power demand pattern selected by the demand estimator.

4. The power demand estimating apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising a demand estimation corrector that corrects the demand estimating model by correcting, based on an input given by a user, the power demand pattern displayed on the display, and creating again the demand estimating model on the estimation day using the power demand pattern that is corrected.

5. The power demand estimating apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the power demand pattern that is corrected is stored in the demand data memory.

6. The power demand estimating apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising:

a weather pattern memory storing a plurality of weather patterns which are classified in accordance with the environmental condition, and which show a relative weather fluctuation rate per a unit time; and

an weather forecasting data constructor obtaining, from the weather pattern memory, the weather pattern that matches the environmental condition on the estimation day, and creating weather forecasting data per a unit time on the estimation day.

7. A demand suppressing schedule planning apparatus comprising:

the power demand estimating apparatus according to claim 1;

a demand suppressing schedule calculator calculating an amount of power demand suppression at an area subjected to an estimation using the demand estimating model created by the power demand estimating apparatus; and

an incentive menu determiner determining an incentive menu to accomplish the amount of power demand suppression.

8. The demand suppressing schedule planning apparatus according to claim 7, further comprising a demand-suppressing-effect estimator correcting, based on the amount of power demand suppression, the demand estimating model created by the power demand estimating apparatus.

9. The demand suppressing schedule planning apparatus according to claim 7, further comprising an environmental-improvement-effect calculator calculating an environmental improvement effect by the demand suppressing schedule.

10. A power demand estimating method which estimates a power demand on a designated estimation day, and which is executed by a computer accessible to a demand data memory storing:

a plurality of power demand patterns which are classified in accordance with an environmental condition, and which show a power demand rate per a unit time;

power demand amount data per temperature gathering up a maximum value and a minimum value of a power demand amount at each temperature; and

a plurality of power-demand fluctuation patterns which are classified in accordance with the environmental condition and which show a demand fluctuation rate per a unit time due to a temperature change; and

a demand record memory storing a demand record, the demand record being obtained by classifying, in accordance with the environmental condition, the power demand amount at an area subjected to an estimation measured per a unit time,

the method comprising;

selecting the demand pattern that matches the environmental condition on the estimation day from the demand data memory, obtaining the maximum value and the minimum value of the power demand amount at an expected temperature on the estimation day from the power demand amount data per temperature, calculating the power demand amount per a unit time on the estimation day, and creating a demand estimating model on the estimation day; and

displaying the demand estimating model on the estimation day together with the power demand pattern selected by the demand estimator,

wherein;

the selecting extracts, from the demand record memory, the demand record that matches the environmental condition per a unit time on the estimation day, and obtains, from the demand data memory, the power-demand fluctuation pattern that matches the environmental condition on the estimation day; and

the selecting corrects the power demand amount per a unit time in the demand record by obtaining a difference between the temperature of the demand record and an expected temperature on the estimation day, calculating a correction coefficient by multiplying the difference by a power demand fluctuation rate per a unit time in the power-demand fluctuation pattern, and adding the correction coefficient to the power demand amount per a unit time in the demand record, and creates the demand estimating model on the estimation day.

11. A computer-accessible storage medium storing a power demand estimating program for estimating a power demand on a designated estimation day that causes a computer to realize:

a function of accessing a plurality of power demand patterns which are classified in accordance with an environmental condition, and which show a power demand rate per a unit time, power demand amount data per temperature gathering up a maximum value and a minimum value of an power demand amount at each temperature, and a plurality of power-demand fluctuation patterns which are classified in accordance with the environmental condition and which show a demand fluctuation rate per a unit time due to a temperature change, the power demand patterns, the power demand amount data per temperature, and the plurality of power-demand fluctuation patterns being stored in a storage device;

a function of accessing a demand record memory storing a demand record, the demand record being obtained by classifying, in accordance with the environmental condition, the power demand amount at an area subjected to an estimation measured per a unit time, and the demand record being stored in a storage device;

a function of selecting the demand pattern that matches the environmental condition on the estimation day from the plurality of power demand patterns, obtaining the maximum value and the minimum values of the power demand amount at an expected temperature on the estimation day from the power demand amount data per temperature, calculating the power demand amount per a unit time on the estimation day, and creating a demand estimating model on the estimation day; and

a function of creating display screen data displaying the demand estimating model on the estimation day together with the power demand pattern selected by the demand estimator,

wherein;

the function of selecting extracts, from the demand record memory, the demand record that matches the environmental condition per a unit time on the estimation day, and obtains, from the demand data memory, the power-demand fluctuation pattern that matches the environmental condition on the estimation day; and

the function of selecting corrects the power demand amount per a unit time in the demand record by obtaining a difference between the temperature of the demand record and an expected temperature on the estimation day, calculating a correction coefficient by multiplying the difference by a power demand fluctuation rate per a unit time in the power-demand fluctuation pattern, and adding the correction coefficient to the power demand amount per a unit time in the demand record, and creates the demand estimating model on the estimation day.