Dynamically adjusted automated item replenishment

• US 10,817,885 B2
• Filed: 03/18/2015
• Issued: 10/27/2020
• Est. Priority Date: 03/18/2015
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Quidsi (Amazon.com, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Quidsi (Amazon.com, Inc.)
• Inventors: Concannon, Michael John, Arkhipov, Ivan Georgiyevich, Chavoshi, Seyed Sina
• Primary Examiner(s): Munson, Patricia H
• Assistant Examiner(s): Byrd, Uche
• Application Number:
  US14/662,072
• Publication Number:
  US 20160275530A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,050 Days
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/103 Workflow collaboration or project management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/105 Human resources
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/00 Commerce
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0255 based on user history
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/06 Buying, selling or leasing transactions
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0601 Electronic shopping [e-shopping]
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes

Abstract

A mechanism is described for determining an amount of item that remains in the possession of a consumer for an automatic item subscription system, as well as a subsequent replacement date for that item. The remaining item amount may be determined from a consumption rate that is calculated from a number of factors. In some embodiments, the consumption rate may be based on cluster data or data representing trends related to the underlying item. As the consumption rate for an item changes, the replacement date may be dynamically updated to reflect the change in the consumption rate.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method, comprising:

receiving an indication that a user is in possession of an item, the item being subscribed to in an automatic subscription system;

determining a first consumption rate for the item, the first consumption rate being a rate at which the item is predicted to be consumed based upon usage of the item by a broad consumer base, the usage calculated based on a purchase history associated with the broad consumer base;

determining a first renewal date associated with the broad consumer base, wherein the first renewal date is based at least in part on the first consumption rate for the item;

determining, based on a purchase history of the user, a consumer cluster in which the user belongs, wherein the consumer cluster comprises fewer users than the broad consumer base;

determining a second consumption rate, the second consumption rate being a rate at which the item is predicted to be consumed based upon a purchase history associated with consumers within the consumer cluster;

determining, based on the first consumption rate and the second consumption rate, a second renewal date for the item being a date upon which the item is to be replaced, wherein the second renewal date is different than the first renewal date based at least in part on a difference between the first consumption rate and the second consumption rate;

upon determining that at least one of the first consumption rate or the second consumption rate has changed, determining a third renewal date for the item to replace the first renewal date for the item;

updating, in substantially real-time, a replacement status indicator associated with renewal of the item for presentation on a user interface of a device associated with the user based at least in part on the third renewal date;

receiving an authorization from the device associated with the user to ship the item, the authorization provided based at least in part on the updated replacement status indicator; and

determining, by the automatic subscription system and based at least in part on the received authorization, an instruction to ship the item based at least in part on a difference between the third renewal date and the first renewal date.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the indication that the user is in possession of an item is a purchase of the item by the user.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein at least one of the first consumption rate or the second consumption rate is determined from a function with respect to time.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein at least one of the first consumption rate or the second consumption rate is chosen from a series of data points, each data point in the series of data points associated with a date.

18. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising selecting a package for shipment of the item based at least in part on the difference between the third renewal date and the first renewal date, wherein the package is one of a plurality of packages, and a rate of usage of packages of the plurality of packages is balanced over time based at least in part on the difference between the first renewal date and the third renewal date.

19. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein a number of shipment packages sent to the user is minimized based at least in part on aggregating the item with other items, the aggregating based at least in part on determining the third renewal date.

5. A system comprising:

a processor; and

a memory including instructions that, when executed with the processor, cause the system to, at least;

maintain, for a user, an association between the user and a cluster of users, the association identified based on similarities in purchase patterns between the user and the cluster of users;

determine, based on purchases of an item by a broad consumer base, a first consumption rate for an item;

determine, based on purchases of the item by the cluster of users, a second consumption rate for the item, wherein the cluster of users comprises fewer users than the broad consumer base;

determine, as a function of the first consumption rate and the second consumption rate, an overall consumption rate for the item;

maintain a replacement status for the item, the replacement status calculated based at least in part from the overall consumption rate for the item;

receive an indication that at least one of the first consumption rate or the second consumption rate has changed;

update the overall consumption rate to reflect the changes from the received indication;

update, in substantially real-time, a replacement status indicator corresponding to an updated replacement status for the item based at least in part on the update made to the overall consumption rate;

cause presentation, to the user, of the updated replacement status indicator on a user interface of a device associated with the user;

receive an authorization from the device associated with the user to ship the item, the authorization provided based at least in part on the updated replacement status indicator; and

determine, based at least in part on the received authorization, an instruction to ship the item.

6. The system of claim 5, wherein the replacement status indicator for the item includes an indication of a time remaining before replacement of the item.

7. The system of claim 5, wherein the replacement status indicator for the item includes an indication of an amount of the item of which the user has possession.

8. The system of claim 5, wherein the indication that the overall consumption rate has changed is received in response to an external market force.

9. The system of claim 8, wherein the external market force is at least one of a change in an economy, a fad, a seasonality, or an event.

10. The system of claim 5, wherein the instructions further cause the system to at least update the replacement status for the item on a periodic basis.

11. The system of claim 5, wherein the replacement status indicator for the item is displayed as a status bar.

12. The system of claim 5, wherein the replacement status indicator for the item is displayed as a percentage.

13. A non-transitory computer readable storage memory device storing specific computer-executable instructions that, when executed by a processor, cause a computer system to at least:

maintain, for a user, a remaining item status indicating a remainder of an item in possession by the user;

maintain, with respect to the item, a first consumption rate determined based on purchases of the item by a broad consumer base, the first consumption rate being periodically updated;

maintain a second consumption rate determined based on purchases of the item by a group of users into which the user belongs, wherein the group of users comprises fewer users than the broad consumer base, the second consumption rate being periodically updated;

determine, as a function of the first consumption rate and the second consumption rate, an overall consumption rate;

update the remaining item status on a periodic basis, the update comprising;

estimating a portion of the item that has been consumed using the overall consumption rate;

updating the remaining item status to reflect the portion of the item estimated to have been consumed; and

updating a remaining item status indicator associated with the updated remaining item status for presentation on a user interface of a device associated with the user;

detect that the remaining item status has fallen below a threshold level; and

cause, in response to detecting that the remaining item status has fallen below the threshold level, a replacement item to be offered to the user via the user interface of the device associated with the user;

receive an authorization from the device associated with the user to ship the item, the authorization provided based at least in part on the updated remaining item status indicator; and

determine, based at least in part on the received authorization, an instruction to ship the item.

14. The computer readable storage memory device of claim 13, wherein the threshold level is set by the user.

15. The computer readable storage memory device of claim 13, wherein the remaining item status is updated to reflect the replacement item once the replacement item is provided to the user.

16. The computer readable storage memory device of claim 13, wherein the periodic basis is one of a monthly basis, a daily basis, an hourly basis, ora substantially real-time basis.

17. The computer readable storage memory device of claim 13, wherein the replacement item is provided to the user along with at least one other item.