Security analyst estimates performance viewing system and method

• US 20020052820A1
• Filed: 10/22/2001
• Published: 05/02/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 04/24/1998
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Refinitiv US Organization, LLC (Refinitiv US Holdings, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: StarMine Corp. (The Woodbridge Co. Ltd.)
• Inventors: Gatto, Joseph G.
• Granted Patent: US 7,149,716 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/36
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/02 Banking, e.g. interest calculation or account maintenance credit or loans G06Q40/03
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Abstract

A system and method for measuring, analyzing, and tracking the past performance of security analysts'"'"' earnings estimates and recommendations. The present invention provides a database of historical data relating to security analyst earnings estimate predictions wherein a historical model enables users to view the historical data as a time series of earnings estimates for each analyst selected, for a selected period of time, for a predetermined earnings event. Users may define a model to automatically create enhanced composite estimates wherein an improved prediction of the quantity being estimated, such as company earnings, revenue or cash flow is obtained. Users may view performance screens and historical performance data for a particular contributor or various contributors for a given security. Other views may be available.

Claims

1. A graphical user interface for use with a computer-implemented system for viewing and analyzing performance data comprising:

a performance view module to enable one or more users to view performance data of one or more contributors wherein performance data is aggregated according to one or more user-defined criteria wherein one or more contributors'"'"' performance in estimating earnings events are measured and compared.

2. The graphical user interface of claim 1 wherein contributor performance is measured and compared in absolute terms.

3. The graphical user interface of claim 1 wherein contributor performance is measured and compared relative to other contributors.

4. The graphical user interface of claim 1 wherein contributor performance data comprises error metrics.

5. The graphical user interface of claim 1 wherein contributor performance data comprises error metrics wherein contributor performance data is sorted based on user specifics.

6. The graphical user interface of claim 1 further comprising means for enabling a user to rank contributors based on user-selected criteria.

7. The graphical user interface of claim 1 wherein user-defined factors comprise one or more of ticker, company name, analyst, CUSIP, and unique ticker.

8. The graphical user interface of claim 1 wherein user-defined criteria comprises one or more of broker, ticker or broker and ticker combination.

9. The graphical user interface of claim 1 comprising a window for displaying, for a selected security, each contributor who made an estimate in the selected fiscal period or periods.

10. The graphical user interface of claim 9, wherein the window further displays, for each displayed contributor, summary performance metrics.

11. The graphical user interface of claim 9, wherein the window further displays, for each displayed contributor, aggregate performance metrics.

12. The graphical user interface of claim 9, wherein the graphical user interface further comprises a window for displaying period-by-period performance for a selected one of the displayed contributors, for the selected security for each period in the selected fiscal periods.

13. The graphical user interface of claim 9, further comprising means for enabling a user to elect to filter the displayed list of contributors who made an estimate in the selected fiscal period or periods to those contributors who have a current estimate.

14. The graphical user interface of claim 13 wherein the user defines filter parameters for filtering the displayed list of contributors.

15. The graphical user interface of claim 1 comprising means for displaying, for a selected contributor, each security for which that contributor has made an estimate.

16. The graphical user interface of claim 15, comprising means for displaying, for a selected contributor, each security for which that contributor has made an estimate in a selected fiscal period.

17. The graphical user interface of claim 16 further comprising means for displaying, for the selected contributor, and each displayed security, aggregate performance metrics.

18. The graphical user interface of claim 17, wherein the aggregate performance metrics are displayed for a selected time frame and are aggregated over each period in the selected period.

19. The graphical user interface of claim 15 wherein the graphical user interface further comprises a window for displaying period-by-period performance for the selected contributor, for a selected one of the displayed securities for each period in the selected fiscal periods.

20. The graphical user interface of claim 1 further comprising means for enabling a user to select a contributor-security pair.

21. The graphical user interface of claim 20 further comprising means for displaying, for the selected contributor-security pair, period-by-period performance metrics for each period in the selected fiscal periods

35. The graphical user interface of claim 1, further comprising means to enable the user to aggregate performance by analyst, broker or analyst/broker pair.

36. The graphical user interface of claim 1 wherein the user specified number of periods over which to analyze performance determines how many periods to show in the display of period-by-period data.

37. The graphical user interface of claim 1 wherein the user specifies a time window prior to the report date, the window determining how far in advance of the report date to include estimates.

38. The graphical user interface of claim 1 wherein the user specifies at least the number and type of periods and time window to determine the estimates to be included in an analysis.

22. The graphical user interface of claims I further comprising means for displaying for a contributor-security pair at least one historical time-series chart.

23. The graphical user interface of claim 22, wherein the at least one chart comprises a time-series display of the contributor'"'"'s estimates and consensus estimates.

24. The graphical user interface of claim 22, wherein the at least one chart comprises a time-series display of the contributor'"'"'s estimates and consensus estimates, and the actual reported earnings.

25. The graphical user interface of claim 22, wherein the at least one chart comprises a time-series display of the contributor'"'"'s estimates and consensus estimates and the actual reported earnings displayed as a vertical bar, with a height indicating the actual reported earnings, on the time axis corresponding to the day the earnings were reported.

26. The graphical user interface of claim 22, wherein the graphical user interface simultaneously displays one chart for each of a plurality of periods.

27. The graphical user interface of claim 22, wherein the at least one chart comprises a time-series display of the contributor'"'"'s estimates and at least one other contributor'"'"'s estimates for comparison purposes.

28. The graphical user interface of claim 27, wherein the at least one other contributor is a best contributor based on predetermined factors.

29. The graphical user interface of claim 27, wherein the at least one other contributor is a comparison contributor selected by the user.

30. The graphical user interface of claim 27, wherein the at least one other contributor is at least one of a high estimate, low estimate or mean estimate.

31. The graphical user interface of claim 27, wherein the at least one other contributor is an enhanced composite estimate.

32. The graphical user interface of claim 22, further comprising a time series display of the security'"'"'s price displayed simultaneously with the at least one chart.

33. The graphical user interface of claim 27, wherein each time series is represented by a line, further comprising means for ensuring that both lines are visible even if the value over a particular time is the same.

34. The graphical user interface of claim 33, wherein a first line is displayed as a line with a first thickness and a second line is displayed with a second thickness, the first line being on top.

40. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein contributors are ranked based on performance factors.

41. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein performance data is updated at predetermined intervals.

42. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein contributors'"'"' forecasts comprise earnings estimates.

43. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein contributors'"'"' forecasts comprise recommendation data.

44. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein contributors'"'"' forecasts comprise price data.

45. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein actual performances comprise actual reported earnings for the earnings events.

46. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein comparisons are distributed over one or more time periods.

47. The graphical user interface of claim 46 further comprising means for enabling the user to select one or more time periods to view performance data.

48. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein one or more time periods comprise fiscal quarters.

49. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein one or more time periods comprise fiscal years.

50. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein one or more time periods comprise a user defined time period.

51. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein contributors comprise one or more analysts.

52. The graphical user interface of claim 39 further comprising means for viewing performance data for one or more analysts participating in a predetermined earnings event wherein performance data is displayed for one or more time periods.

53. The graphical user interface of claim 39 further comprising means for enabling a user to view performance data for a single time period.

54. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein performance data for one or more contributors are translated into an accuracy score for each contributor wherein each accuracy score is an indicator of each contributor'"'"'s accuracy in relation to other participating contributors.

55. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein performance data for one or more contributors are translated into a set of symbols wherein each symbol in the set of symbols signifies a degree of accuracy for a contributor'"'"'s ability to forecast earnings events.

56. The graphical user interface of claim 55 wherein performance data is displayed for one or more predetermined time periods.

57. The graphical user interface of claim 55 wherein contributors comprise one or more analysts.

58. The graphical user interface of claim 57 wherein the one or more analysts are associated with a company.

59. The graphical user interface of claim 55 wherein contributors comprise one or more companies.

60. The graphical user interface of claim 59 wherein the one or more companies are associated with an analyst.

61. The graphical user interface of claim 39 further comprising means for displaying contributors'"'"' recommendation data for one or more earnings events.

62. The graphical user interface of claim 61 wherein recommendation data comprises an average score of one or more recommendations wherein the recommendations of each contributor are translated into numerical values.

63. The graphical user interface of claim 39 further enabling the user to view consensus data as compared to one or more contributors'"'"' performance data.

64. The graphical user interface of claim 39 further enabling the user to view historical data wherein historical data comprises historical estimate information for one or more contributors.

65. The graphical user interface of claim 64 wherein historical data and performance data are commingled.

66. The graphical user interface of claim 64 wherein historical data is displayed in a chart format over a predetermined period of time wherein historical data comprises price information for an earnings event.

67. The graphical user interface of claim 66 further including an as of date.

68. The graphical user interface of claim 64 wherein historical data further comprises earnings information for a predetermined period of time.

69. The graphical user interface of claim 64 wherein historical data further comprises revision information for one or more contributors.

70. The graphical user interface of claim 69 wherein revision information comprises symbols wherein symbols indicate whether revisions were increased, decreased, reiterated, or stayed the same.

71. The graphical user interface of claim 39 further enabling the user to view and compare one or more contributors'"'"' performance data wherein contributors comprise individual analysts.

72. The graphical user interface of claim 39 further enabling the user to view and compare one or more contributors'"'"' performance data wherein contributors comprise one or more companies wherein each company comprises a set of one or more analysts.

73. The graphical user interface of claim 39 further enabling the user to view and compare one or more contributors'"'"' performance data wherein contributors comprise an industry.

74. The graphical user interface of claim 73 wherein performance data comprises earnings estimate accuracy.

75. The graphical user interface of claim 73 wherein performance data comprises stock picking information.

76. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein performance data comprises one or more actions taken by one or more contributors wherein actions comprise one or more of upgrades, downgrades and reiterations made by one or more contributors for an earnings event.

77. The graphical user interface of claim 76 wherein each action is indicated by a symbolic mark.

78. The graphical user interface of claim 77 further enabling a user to aggregate performance data based on time factors.

79. The graphical user interface of claim 78 wherein time factors comprise whether an action has been taken within a predetermined time frame.

80. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein performance data further comprises accuracy measures which assess the accuracy of a contributor'"'"'s ability to recommend one or more actions for one or more earnings events.

81. The graphical user interface of claim 80 wherein one or more actions comprise one or more of buy, hold, and sell.

82. The graphical user interface of claim 81 wherein one or more actions further comprise strong buy and strong sell.

83. The graphical user interface of claim 39 further comprising a chart for illustrating historical data wherein historical data comprises earnings estimates made by one or more contributors for an earnings event.

84. The graphical user interface of claim 83 wherein the one or more contributor'"'"'s historical earnings estimates are compared to a consensus estimate.

85. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein performance data comprises performance of one or more portfolios created from one or more contributors'"'"' recommendations over one or more predetermined periods of time for one or more earnings events.

86. The graphical user interface of claim 85 wherein the one or more portfolios are ranked based on one or more selected performance factors.

87. The graphical user interface of claim 86 wherein one or more performance factors comprise profitability.

88. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein contributors'"'"' forecasts comprise predicting directional movement of one or more earnings events.

89. The graphical user interface of claim 88 wherein the earnings events comprises stock predictions.

90. The graphical user interface of claim 88 wherein directional movement comprises one or more of the rise and fall of an earnings event by a predetermined time.

91. The graphical user interface of claim 39 wherein accuracy measures comprise the timeliness of an estimate of one or more contributors for an earnings event.

92. The graphical user interface of claim 91 wherein timeliness comprises predicting an event within a predetermined time period.

93. The graphical user interface of claim 92 wherein the event comprises directional movement for an earnings event.

94. The graphical user interface of claim 92 wherein the event comprises an estimated price of an earnings event.

39. A graphical user interface for use with a computer-implemented system for viewing and analyzing performance data, the graphical user interface comprising:

a performance view module to enable one or more users to view performance data of one or more contributors wherein performance data comprises accuracy measures which compare contributors'"'"' forecasts and actual performances of one or more earnings events where the accuracy measures for each contributor are compared to other contributors participating in forecasting the earnings events.