Decision analysis system and method for evaluating patient candidacy for a therapeutic procedure

• US 20020193667A1
• Filed: 04/26/2001
• Published: 12/19/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 04/26/2001
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Abiomed, Inc. (Johnson & Johnson)
• Original Assignee: Abiomed, Inc. (Johnson & Johnson)
• Inventors: McNair, Douglas S.
• Granted Patent: US 6,533,724 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 600/300
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 15/00 ICT specially adapted for medical reports, e.g. generation or transmission thereof
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 20/00 ICT specially adapted for therapies or health-improving plans, e.g. for handling prescriptions, for steering therapy or for monitoring patient compliance
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 50/20 for computer-aided diagnosis, e.g. based on medical expert systems
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 50/30 for calculating health indices; for individual health risk assessment
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 50/50 for simulation or modelling of medical disorders

Abstract

A decision analysis method for evaluating patient candidacy for a therapeutic procedure is provided. The method includes predicting, in accordance with a predetermined quantitative predicative scoring system, the probability of an adverse effect on such patient absent such procedure where less than all of data elements used in the scoring system may be available. The method is used to predict a probability of death of a patient within a predetermined period of time and includes predicting, in accordance with a predetermined quantitative predicative scoring system. The probability of death for such patient within the predetermined period of time being determined from medical data elements of the patient where less than all of such medical data elements may be available for use by the scoring system. A method is also provided for generating a scoring system to predict a probability of death of a patient within a predetermined period of time.

Claims

1. A decision analysis method for evaluating patient candidacy for a therapeutic procedure, comprising:

predicting, in accordance with a predetermined quantitative predictive scoring system, the probability of an adverse effect on such patient absent such procedure where less than all of medical data elements used in such scoring system may be available.

2. A decision analysis method for evaluating patient candidacy for a therapeutic procedure, comprising:

predicting, in accordance with a predetermined quantitative predictive scoring system, a probability of death of a patient within a predetermined period of time where less than all of medical data elements used in such scoring system may be available.

3. A decision analysis method for evaluating patient candidacy for a therapeutic procedure, comprising:

generating a point total within each of a plurality of groups, each one of the groups having different ones of a plurality of medical data elements;

determining whether the total generated for each one of the groups exceeds a predetermined point total group threshold;

predicting from such determining the probability an adverse effect on such patient absent such procedure.

4. A decision analysis method for evaluating patient candidacy for a therapeutic procedure, comprising:

generating a point total within each of a plurality of groups, each one of the groups having different ones of a plurality of medical data elements;

determining whether the point total generated for each one of the groups exceeds a predetermined total group threshold;

predicting from such determining a probability of death of the candidate within a predetermined period of time.

5. A method is provided for generating a scoring system to predict a probability of death of a patient within a predetermined period of time, comprising:

obtaining medical information comprising a plurality of medical data elements from each one of a plurality of patients, such information including only those data elements available during a predetermined period of time after such one of the patients has been admitted to a critical care unit;

determining a significance value for each of the medical data elements, such value providing an indication of the significance of such medical data elements on any one of the patients dying within the predetermined period of time;

establishing from the determined significance values, a plurality of groups of the medical data elements with the medical data elements in each one of the groups having significance values within a corresponding predetermined significance value range;

dichotomizing each medical data element with a corresponding inclusion/exclusion threshold level;

assigning a point value to each one of such dichotomized medical data elements;

for each one of the patients, calculating a total of the point values for each one of the groups including in such total only the medical elements determined by the last-mentioned dichotomization to be included within such total;

establishing a group threshold level for each one of the groups;

producing a binary output for each one of the groups in accordance with a comparison between the total of the points determined for such one of the groups and the corresponding group threshold; and

processing the binary outputs from the plurality of groups to provide a score corresponding to each one of the binary outputs indicating a probability of death with the predetermined period of time.