Conflict assessment system tool

• US 20030004954A1
• Filed: 06/27/2001
• Published: 01/02/2003
• Est. Priority Date: 06/27/2001
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Fund For Peace Corporation
• Original Assignee: The Fund For Peace Corporation
• Inventors: Clark, Mark A., Russell, Anne V., Baker, Pauline H.
• Granted Patent: US 7,092,927 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 707/100
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06393 Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 99/00 Subject matter not provided for in other groups of this subclass
• CPC Class Codes: Y10S 706/933 Law, law enforcement, or government

Abstract

Methods and apparatus for performing conflict assessments conducted by a software tool, which are particularly suited for monitoring internal conflicts of various countries are disclosed. An application of this method and apparatus to the international community is also disclosed

Claims

1. A method of conflict assessment using a relational database stored on a source medium loaded onto a computer system, comprising the steps of:

selecting a country and time period to analyze;

determining if the database contains enough information to perform a base assessment of the selected country;

gathering up-to-the-moment information by Internet searches;

analyzing the information to determine the level of conflict indicators;

factoring the present state of each indicator and the indicators'"'"' cumulative value against past conflict assessments by determining the rate of change in the state of conflict and the differences in the contributing factors; and

outputting the assessment data results for a user to view.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining if the database contains enough information further comprises the steps of:

searching all pre-determined online sources;

searching database files; and

determining the information reliability.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein said database files include categories of government, people, economy, geography, communication/transportation, military, health, domestic security, and international areas.

4. The method of claim 2, wherein the step of determining the information reliability further comprises the steps of:

corroborating information;

determining computational relationships;

identifying informational holes; and

determining source reliability ratings.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein said source medium is a high density 3½

inch diskette.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein said source medium is a CD-ROM disk.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of analyzing the information to determine the level of indicators further comprises the steps of:

determining indicator rankings for the selected country;

determining each indicator'"'"'s weighted values for the selected county; and

determining the presence of anomalies that effect the ranked indicators.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining the rate of change in the state of conflict and the differences in the contributing factors further comprises the steps of:

placing a composite value of the indicators onto a historical graph of previous conflict assessments;

determining the delta of the composite value and the delta of each indicator value from the last assessment;

determining if automatic alerts or warnings should be issued based on pre-determined criteria; and

placing the composite values and the delta information of the selected country onto a conflict assessment framework, wherein said framework comprises five stages of conflict that track where the selected country falls with respect to the probability of conflict arising.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein said five stages include root causes, intermediate causes, transition, transformation of the State, and outcome.

10. A storage media containing a database program for assessing and determining conflicts using a computer, said program comprising:

one code segment which loads/sets up said program onto said computer;

one code segment which accepts and recognizes data inputs from a user;

one code segment which determines if the program'"'"'s internal database contains enough information to perform a base assessment on the selected input;

one code segment which gathers additional information when needed to perform said base assessment;

one code segment which performs an indicator analysis;

one code segment which compares the present state of said indicators and said indicators'"'"' cumulative values against past assessments;

one code segment which determines the rate of change in a state of conflict and the differences in contributing factors; and

one code segment which outputs assessment data results for the user to view.