Weather radar echo tops forecast generation

• US 20070005249A1
• Filed: 06/22/2006
• Published: 01/04/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 06/30/2005
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• Original Assignee: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• Inventors: Boldi, Robert, Dupree, William, Johnson, Richard, Calden, Kim, Bieringer, Paul, Wolfson, Marilyn, Wilson, Carol
• Granted Patent: US 7,391,358 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/3
• CPC Class Codes: G01S 13/89 for mapping or imaging
• CPC Class Codes: G01S 13/951 ground based
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/00 Meteorology
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09
• CPC Class Codes: Y02A 90/10 Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation

Abstract

Described are a method and a system for generating a short-term forecast of echo tops as defined by weather radar measurements. The method includes receiving echo tops images for different times. An echo tops growth rate and an echo tops maximum value are determined for pixels in one of the images and used to generate echo tops prediction values for an echo tops prediction image. For pixels in regions of the image determined to be subject to convective initiation but where convective weather does not exist, an echo tops initiation height and the echo tops maximum value are determined and used with a predicted precipitation value to generate an echo tops prediction value for each pixel.

Claims

1. A method for generating a short-term forecast of echo tops, the method comprising:

(a) receiving a plurality of echo tops images each generated for a different time;

(b) determining an echo tops growth rate for a pixel in one of the echo tops images in response to a value of the pixel in the respective echo tops image and a value of a respective pixel in at least one of the other echo tops images;

(c) determining an echo tops maximum value for the pixel; and

(d) generating an echo tops predicted value for the pixel in response to the one of the echo tops images, the echo tops growth rate and the echo tops maximum value.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein the determination of an echo tops maximum value is responsive to a value of the pixel and values of the other pixels in a predefined image region surrounding the pixel for at least one of the echo tops images.

3. The method of claim 2 wherein the echo tops maximum value is determined by applying a predetermined percentile to a distribution of the values for the pixels in the predefined image region.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein the determination of an echo tops maximum value is determined from a convective cloud top potential for the pixel.

5. The method of claim 1 wherein steps (b), (c) and (d) are performed for each of a plurality of pixels in the one of the echo tops images to generate an echo tops prediction image.

6. The method of claim 5 wherein generation of an echo tops prediction image further comprises advecting the one of the echo tops images according to a plurality of tracking vectors.

7. The method of claim 6 wherein the tracking vectors are generated in response to a plurality of weather radar images.

8. The method of claim 7 wherein the weather radar images are precipitation images.

9. A method for generating a short-term forecast of echo tops, the method comprising:

(a) receiving an echo tops image;

(b) determining an echo tops initiation height for a pixel in a convective initiation region of the echo tops image;

(c) determining an echo tops maximum value for the pixel; and

(d) generating an echo tops prediction value for the pixel in response to the echo tops initiation height, the echo tops maximum value and a predicted precipitation value.

10. The method of claim 9 wherein the determination of an echo tops maximum value is responsive to a value of the pixel and values of the other pixels in a predefined image region surrounding the pixel.

11. The method of claim 10 wherein the echo tops maximum value is determined by applying a predetermined percentile to a distribution of the values for the pixels in the predefined image region.

12. The method of claim 9 wherein the determination of an echo tops maximum value is determined from a convective cloud top potential for the pixel.

13. The method of claim 9 wherein steps (b), (c) and (d) are performed for each of a plurality of pixels in the one of the echo tops images to generate an echo tops prediction image.

14. The method of claim 13 wherein generation of an echo tops prediction image further comprises advecting the one of the echo tops images according to a plurality of tracking vectors.

15. The method of claim 14 wherein the tracking vectors are generated in response to a plurality of weather radar images.

16. The method of claim 15 wherein the weather radar images are precipitation images.

17. A system for generating a short-term forecast of echo tops comprising:

an echo tops image processor configured to receive an echo tops image and to determine echo tops maximum values for the echo tops image;

a tracker module for receiving a plurality of weather radar images and generating an array of tracking vectors in response thereto;

an advection module in communication with the tracker module and configured to receive the weather radar images, the advection module applying the array of tracking vectors to one of the weather radar images to generate a weather radar prediction image; and

a forecast application module in communication with the echo tops image processor and the advection module, the forecast application module generating an echo tops prediction image in response to the weather radar prediction image, the echo tops image and the echo tops maximum values.

18. The system of claim 17 wherein the weather radar images are precipitation images.

19. A method of providing weather radar data and echo tops data to a user, the method comprising:

determining a weather radar prediction image in response to a plurality of weather radar images, each weather radar image being representative of a value of a meteorological parameter at a geographical location at a different time;

determining an echo tops prediction image in response to a plurality of echo tops images; and

generating a combined prediction image by replacing the value of the meteorological parameter for a pixel in the weather radar prediction image with a value of a respective pixel in the echo tops prediction image if the value of the meteorological parameter exceeds a threshold value.

20. The method of claim 19 wherein the weather radar images comprise precipitation images.

21. The method of claim 19 wherein the value of a pixel in the weather radar prediction image indicates a range of values for the meteorological parameter.

22. The method of claim 19 wherein the value of a pixel in the echo tops prediction image indicates a range of values for an echo top.

23. The method of claim 19 further comprising generating a contour in the combined prediction image to differentiate a region of pixels having echo tops values that exceed a predetermined value from pixels having echo tops values that do not exceed the predetermined value.

24. A method of providing weather radar data and echo tops data to a user, the method comprising displaying a combined prediction image indicating a value of a meteorological parameter as a function of location for a geographical area where the value of the meteorological parameter does not exceed a threshold value and indicating an echo tops value for each location where the value of the meteorological parameter exceeds the threshold value.

25. The method of claim 24 wherein the combined prediction image includes a contour differentiating two ranges of echo tops values.

26. The method of claim 24 wherein the meteorological parameter is a precipitation value.