Method for assessment of uncertainty and risk

• US 20070179742A1
• Filed: 01/08/2007
• Published: 08/02/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 01/20/2006
• Status: Active Application

• Current Assignee: Prader Research &AMP Development Company Limited, Logined B.V. (Schlumberger NV), Schlumberger Canada Limited (Schlumberger NV), Schlumberger Technology Corporation (Schlumberger NV), Services Petroliers Schlumberger (Schlumberger NV)
• Original Assignee: Schlumberger Technology Corporation (Schlumberger NV)
• Inventors: Lu, Albert, Tabanou, Eric, Neisch, Daniel, Brady, James, Palkowsky, Douglas
• Granted Patent: US 7,467,045 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/181
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling

Abstract

A method is disclosed for assessing uncertainty comprising: creating a catalog for uncertainty areas; capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data; establishing dependencies between uncertainties; associating risks to uncertainties; associating action plans and tasks to risks; creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time.

Claims

1. A method for assessing uncertainty comprising:

creating a catalog for uncertainty areas;

capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data;

establishing dependencies between uncertainties;

associating risks to uncertainties;

associating action plans and tasks to risks;

creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and

tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time.

2. The method as in claim 1 wherein the catalog is updatable.

3. The method as in claim 2 wherein the uncertainty assessed arises in the context of operation in the oil and gas industry.

4. A program storage device readable by a machine tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps for assessing uncertainty, said method steps comprising:

creating a catalog for uncertainty areas;

capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data;

establishing dependencies between uncertainties;

associating risks to uncertainties;

associating action plans and tasks to risks;

creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and

tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time.

5. The program storage device as in claim 4 wherein the catalog is updatable.

6. The program storage device as in claim 5 wherein the uncertainty assessed arises in the context of operation in the oil and gas industry.

7. A system for assessing uncertainty comprising a processor, a data storage system, at least one input device, and at least one output device, and a computer-readable media for storing data, the system comprising:

means for creating of a catalog for uncertainty area and for storing the catalog in the computer-readable media;

means for capturing quantitative and qualitative uncertainty data;

means for establishing dependencies between uncertainties;

means for associating risks to uncertainties;

means for associating action plans and tasks to risks;

means for creating a realization tree from uncertainty ranges; and

means for tracking changes to uncertainties and realizations over time.

8. The system as in claim 7 further comprising a display capable of displaying a realization tree.

9. A method of uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, comprising:

determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and

continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein the determining step further comprises establishing dependencies between one or more uncertainties.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk information associated, respectively, with said set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, a risk being associated with each uncertainty.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk mitigation action plans and a corresponding set of tasks associated, respectively, with said set of risk information, a risk mitigation action plan and a task being associated with each risk of said set of risk information.

13. The method of claim 9, further comprising generating a realization tree representative of said set of uncertainties, said uncertainties each having values, said realization tree having one or more realizations depending upon the values of said uncertainties.

14. The method of claim 13, wherein the determining step further comprises establishing dependencies between one or more uncertainties.

15. The method of claim 14, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk information associated, respectively, with said set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, a risk being associated with each uncertainty.

16. The method of claim 15, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk mitigation action plans and a corresponding set of tasks associated, respectively, with said set of risk information, a risk mitigation action plan and a task being associated with each risk of said set of risk information.

17. A program storage device readable by a machine tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps for uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, said method steps comprising:

determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and

continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir.

18. The program storage device of claim 17, wherein the determining step further comprises establishing dependencies between one or more uncertainties.

19. The program storage device of claim 18, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk information associated, respectively, with said set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, a risk being associated with each uncertainty.

20. The program storage device of claim 19, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk mitigation action plans and a corresponding set of tasks associated, respectively, with said set of risk information, a risk mitigation action plan and a task being associated with each risk of said set of risk information.

21. The program storage device of claim 17, further comprising generating a realization tree representative of said set of uncertainties, said uncertainties each having values, said realization tree having one or more realizations depending upon the values of said uncertainties.

22. The program storage device of claim 21, wherein the determining step further comprises establishing dependencies between one or more uncertainties.

23. The program storage device of claim 22, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk information associated, respectively, with said set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, a risk being associated with each uncertainty.

24. The program storage device of claim 23, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk mitigation action plans and a corresponding set of tasks associated, respectively, with said set of risk information, a risk mitigation action plan and a task being associated with each risk of said set of risk information.

25. A computer program adapted to be executed by a processor, said program, when executed by said processor, conducting a process for uncertainty management adapted for managing uncertainties and risks during the development of a reservoir, said process comprising:

determining a set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, said set of uncertainties including qualitative information and quantitative information, the uncertainties being reduced in response to development of said reservoir; and

continuously changing the qualitative information and the quantitative information associated with said set of uncertainties when the uncertainties are reduced in response to development of said reservoir.

26. The computer program of claim 25, wherein the determining step further comprises establishing dependencies between one or more uncertainties.

27. The computer program of claim 26, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk information associated, respectively, with said set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, a risk being associated with each uncertainty.

28. The computer program of claim 27, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk mitigation action plans and a corresponding set of tasks associated, respectively, with said set of risk information, a risk mitigation action plan and a task being associated with each risk of said set of risk information.

29. The computer program of claim 25, further comprising generating a realization tree representative of said set of uncertainties, said uncertainties each having values, said realization tree having one or more realizations depending upon the values of said uncertainties.

30. The computer program of claim 29, wherein the determining step further comprises establishing dependencies between one or more uncertainties.

31. The computer program of claim 30, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk information associated, respectively, with said set of uncertainties pertaining to the development of said reservoir, a risk being associated with each uncertainty.

32. The computer program of claim 31, wherein the determining step further comprises determining a set of risk mitigation action plans and a corresponding set of tasks associated, respectively, with said set of risk information, a risk mitigation action plan and a task being associated with each risk of said set of risk information.