SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR ANALYZING EFFECTIVENESS OF DISTRIBUTING EMERGENCY SUPPLIES IN THE EVENT OF DISASTERS

• US 20100049485A1
• Filed: 08/20/2008
• Published: 02/25/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 08/20/2008
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Lee, Young Min
• Granted Patent: US 8,788,247 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 703/6
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 30/20 Design optimisation, verification or simulation optimisation, verification or simulation of circuit designs G06F30/30
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/08 Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders

Abstract

A computer-implemented method and system in one embodiment estimate the effectiveness of a dispensing plan of emergency supplies during disasters or in like scenarios, by simulating a flow of emergency supplies in a multi-echelon supply chain, dynamics of victims and progression of disaster. The performance metrics estimated in one embodiment include, but not limited to, overall coverage of distribution, inventory of supplies (e.g., shortage and surplus) and utilization of resources (e.g., shortage and surplus).

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for estimating effectiveness of a distribution or dispensing plan of emergency supplies during disaster events, comprising:

simulating a flow of emergency supplies;

simulating dynamics of victims;

simulating progression of disaster; and

simulating dynamic interactions among the flow of emergency supplies, the dynamics of victims and the progression of disaster.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the simulating the flow of emergency supplies comprises, simulating multi-echelon supply chain, pre-stocked supply quantity, availability of fleet, transportation route and time, road conditions, re-stocking policies, or combinations thereof.

3. The method of claim 1, further including simulating replenishment and cross-shipping as re-stocking policies in said simulating a flow of emergency supplies.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the simulating dynamics of victims comprises simulating number of victims, arrival pattern and surge of victims, distribution and dispensing speed, POD activation, intensity of disaster, switching of point of distributions for victims, or combinations thereof.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the simulating progression of disaster comprises simulating severity of disaster, trajectory of disaster, speed and duration of disaster, or combinations thereof.

6. The method of claim 1, further including estimating an evolution of one or more performance metrics.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein said one or more performance metrics comprise overall coverage of distribution, inventory of supplies, utilization of resources, demand profiles or combinations thereof.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein the inventory of supplies is measured according to shortage and surplus of emergency supplies.

9. The method of claim 7, wherein the utilization of resources is measured according to shortage and surplus of resources.

10. A system for estimating effectiveness of a distribution and dispensing plan of emergency supplies during disaster events, comprising:

a processor;

a flow of emergency supplies simulator module operable to simulate a flow of emergency supplies;

a dynamics of victims simulator module operable to simulate dynamics of victims; and

a progression of disaster simulator module operable to simulate progression of disaster;

said flow of emergency supplies simulator module, said dynamics of victims simulator module and said progression of disaster simulator module further operable to dynamically interact with one another for simulating at least flow of emergency supplies and dynamics of victims.

11. The system of claim 10, wherein the flow of emergency supplies simulator module simulates multi-echelon supply chain, pre-stocked supply quantity, availability of fleet, transportation route and time, road conditions, re-stocking policies, or combinations thereof.

12. The system of claim 10, wherein the flow of emergency supplies simulator module simulates replenishment and cross-shipping as re-stocking policies.

13. The system of claim 10, wherein the dynamics of victims simulator module simulates number of victims, arrival pattern and surge of victims, distribution and dispensing speed, POD activation, intensity of disaster, switching of PODs for victims, or combinations thereof.

14. The system of claim 10, wherein the progression of disaster simulator module simulates severity of disaster, trajectory of disaster, speed and duration of disaster or combinations thereof.

15. The system of claim 10, further including a performance metrics estimator module operable to estimate an evolution of one or more performance metrics resulting from simulation of flow of emergency supplies, dynamics of victims and progression of disaster.

16. The system of claim 15, wherein said one or more performance metrics comprise overall coverage of distribution, inventory of supplies, utilization of resources, demand profile or combinations thereof.

17. A program storage device readable by a machine, tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by the machine to perform a method of estimating effectiveness of a dispensing plan of emergency supplies during disaster events, comprising:

simulating a flow of emergency supplies;

simulating dynamics of victims;

simulating progression of disaster,

said steps of simulating including

dynamic interactions among flow of emergency supplies, dynamics of victims and progression of disaster; and

estimating an evolution of one or more performance metrics, said one or more performance metrics comprising overall coverage of distribution, inventory of supplies, utilization of resources, demand profile or combinations thereof.

18. The program storage device of claim 17, wherein the simulating the flow of emergency supplies comprises, simulating multi-echelon supply chain, pre-stocked supply quantity, availability of fleet, transportation route and time, road conditions, re-stocking policies, or combinations thereof.

19. The program storage device of claim 17, wherein the simulating dynamics of victims comprises, simulating number of victims, arrival pattern and surge of victims, distribution and dispensing speed, POD activation, intensity of disaster switching of PODs for victims, or combinations thereof.

20. The program storage device of claim 17, wherein the simulating progression of disaster comprises simulating severity of disaster, trajectory of disaster, speed and duration of disaster or combinations thereof.