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PREDICTING EXPECTED ROAD TRAFFIC CONDITIONS BASED ON HISTORICAL AND CURRENT DATA

  • US 20110106416A1
  • Filed: 04/22/2010
  • Published: 05/05/2011
  • Est. Priority Date: 04/22/2009
  • Status: Active Grant
First Claim
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1. A computer-implemented method comprising:

  • receiving historical traffic data that reflects prior travel of a plurality of vehicles at a plurality of prior times on an indicated segment of a road having a series of multiple defined road links, the historical traffic data including a plurality of readings from multiple road traffic sensors that each has a location associated with one of the road links, each of the readings from a road traffic sensor reporting an average speed of traffic on the associated road link for the road traffic sensor at one of the prior times, the indicated segment of the road having one or more structural traffic flow obstructions that reduce traffic speeds on at least one of the road links during at least some of the prior times;

    automatically generating a historical travel profile of the indicated segment of the road based on an aggregation of the received historical traffic data, the automatically generated historical travel profile indicating average traffic speeds for each of the road links and for each of multiple time periods that represent distinct time-of-day ranges of time, the indicated average traffic speeds having differing values based at least in part on the structural traffic flow obstructions, the automatic generating being performed by one or more programmed computing systems of an estimated traffic information provider system; and

    automatically estimating travel information for multiple vehicles that travel along the indicated segment of the road by performing a best fit of partial actual travel information for the multiple vehicles to the generated historical travel profile, the automatic estimating being performed by the one or more programmed computing systems and including, for each of the multiple vehicles,obtaining information about a plurality of data samples that each reports an actual traffic speed of the vehicle at an indicated time and at an indicated associated road location, the data samples reflecting an actual travel path of the vehicle along the indicated segment of the road and being periodically generated by a device associated with the vehicle;

    automatically determining a first subset of the indicated segment of the road that includes one or more of the multiple road links to which the plurality of data samples correspond, each of the one or more road links of the first subset being associated with one or more of the plurality of data samples based on the indicated associated road locations of the one or more data samples being part of the road link, and automatically determining a second subset of the indicated segment of the road that includes one or more other of the multiple road links to which the plurality of data samples do not correspond, the one or more other road links of the second subset being distinct from the one or more road links of the first subset, and each of the one or more other road links of the second subset not being associated with any of the plurality of data samples;

    automatically determining actual traffic speeds for a first portion of the actual travel path of the vehicle that corresponds to the one or more road links of the first subset, the automatically determined actual traffic speeds being based on the actual traffic speeds reported by the data samples associated with the one or more road links of the first subset;

    using the generated historical travel profile of the indicated segment of the road to automatically calculate expected traffic speeds of the vehicle for a second portion of the actual travel path of the vehicle that corresponds to the one or more other road links of the second subset, the automatic calculating of the expected traffic speeds including identifying differences between the determined actual traffic speeds for the one or more road links of the first subset and the indicated average traffic speeds from the generated historical travel profile for the one or more road links of the first subset, and adjusting information from the generated historical travel profile for the one or more other road links of the second subset to reflect the identified differences for the first subset; and

    providing one or more indications of the automatically calculated expected traffic speeds of the vehicle to facilitate vehicle navigation over the road.

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