DEMAND PREDICTION SYSTEM

• US 20130268320A1
• Filed: 11/15/2011
• Published: 10/10/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 11/18/2010
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
• Original Assignee: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
• Inventors: Kawamura, Naoya, Tateishi, Koki, Sawanoi, Akihiro, Kasano, Manabu, Sasaki, Yuichi
• Application Number:
  US13/882,206
• Publication Number:
  US 20130268320A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

In order to predict demand, in a demand prediction computing unit (100) a dealer demand prediction computing unit (200) predicts a demand for a dealer, a corporation demand prediction computing unit (300) predicts a demand for a corporation, and a totaling unit (400) totals the predicted demand for the dealer and the predicted demand for the corporation, predicting thereby an aggregate demand. The dealer demand prediction computing unit (200) takes the attribute of the dealer into account and predicts the demand, and the corporation demand prediction computing unit (300) takes the attribute of the corporation into account and predicts the demand. In this manner the attribute of a demander (customer) is taken into account and demand is predicted, and therefore the prediction accuracy is improved.

Claims

1. A demand prediction system for predicting demands from customers having a plurality of attributes, wherein

the attribute of the customer is taken into consideration for each of the attributes of the customers to predict the demand of the customer;

and

all of the demands obtained by carrying out prediction individually for each of the attributes of the customers are added to predict total demands.

2. A demand prediction system comprising:

an inquiry information database unit (21) to which;

inquiry information idL(r) indicating an inquiry date and the number of inquired units of a case in which an inquiry is made by a large-customer dealer and

inquiry information icL(r) indicating an inquiry date and the number of inquired units of a case in which an inquiry is made by a large-customer corporation is input, the inquiry information database unit (21) that chronologically arranges and stores both of the inquiry information idL(r) and icL(r);

an order-reception information database unit (22) to which;

order-reception information idL(o) indicating a shipment date and the number of units to be shipped, the date and the number determined according to an order-received date and a received order of a case in which an order is received from the large-customer dealer,

order-reception information idS(o) indicating a shipment date and the number of units to be shipped, the date and the number determined according to an order-received date and a received order of a case in which an order is received from a small-customer dealer,

order-reception information icL(o) indicating a shipment date and the number of units to be shipped, the date and the number determined according to an order-received date and a received order of a case in which an order is received from the large-customer corporation,

order-reception information icS(o) indicating a shipment date and the number of units to be shipped, the date and the number determined according to an order-received date and a received order of a case in which an order is received from a small-customer corporation is input, the order-reception information database unit (22) that chronologically arranges and stores the order-reception information idL(o), idS(o), icL(o), and icS(o);

an order-reception rate computing unit (31) that;

computes an order-reception rate Rd of the large dealer from the order-reception information idL(o) obtained from the order-reception information database unit (22) and the inquiry information idL(r) obtained from the inquiry information database unit (21) and

computes an order-reception rate Rc of the large corporation from the order-reception information icL(o) obtained from the order-reception information database unit (22) and the inquiry information icL(r) obtained from the inquiry information database unit (21);

a lead-time computing unit (41) that;

computes distribution of lead times LTd of the large-customer dealer from the order-reception information idL(o) obtained from the order-reception information database unit (22) and computes lead times LTc of the large-customer

corporation from the order-reception information icL(o) obtained from the order-reception information database unit (22);

an account-rate computing unit (51) that;

computes account rates Hd of the dealers from the order-reception information idL(o) and the order-reception information idL(o) obtained from the order-reception information database unit (22) and

computes account rates Hc of the corporations from the order-reception information icS(o) and the order-reception information icL(o) obtained from the order-reception information database unit (22); and

a demand prediction computing unit (100) that comprises a dealer demand prediction computing unit (200), a corporation demand prediction computing unit (300), and a totaling unit (400);

wherein

the dealer demand prediction computing unit (200) has;

a demand prediction computing unit (201) that obtains the number of the units predicted to be shipped in a time bucket after the point of computation in terms of time by carrying out the computation by using;

the number of inquired units in a computation-point time bucket obtained from the inquiry information idL(r) obtained from the inquiry information database unit (21), the order-reception rate Rd obtained from the order-reception rate computing unit (31), and the lead times LTd obtained from the lead-time computing unit (41);

a demand prediction computing unit (202) that obtains the number of the units predicted to be shipped in a time bucket after the point of computation in terms of time by carrying out the computation by using;

the number of inquired units in a past time bucket corresponding to the computation-point time bucket obtained from the inquiry information idL(r) obtained from the inquiry information database unit (21), the order-reception rate Rd obtained from the order-reception rate computing unit (31), and the lead times LTd obtained from the lead-time computing unit (41);

a demand prediction computing unit (203) that obtains the number of units predicted to be shipped in a time bucket after the point of computation in terms of time by carrying out the computation by using;

the number of the units predicted to be shipped, the number obtained by the demand prediction computing unit (201), the number of the units predicted to be shipped, the number obtained by the demand prediction computing unit (202), the order-reception information idL(o) obtained from the order-reception rate computing unit (31), and the account rates Hd obtained from the account-rate computing unit (51); and

a totaling unit (204) that obtains the number of the units to be shipped to the dealer by adding, for each time bucket, the numbers of the units predicted to be shipped, the numbers computed by the demand prediction computing unit (201), the demand prediction computing unit (202), and the demand prediction computing unit (203);

the corporation demand prediction computing unit (300) has;

a demand prediction computing unit (301) that obtains the number of the units predicted to be shipped in a time bucket after the point of computation in terms of time by carrying out the computation by using;

the number of inquired units in a computation-point time bucket obtained from the inquiry information icL(r) obtained from the inquiry information database unit (21), the order-reception rate Rc obtained from the order-reception rate computing unit (31), and the lead times LTc obtained from the lead-time computing unit (41);

a demand prediction computing unit (302) that obtains the number of the units predicted to be shipped in a time bucket after the point of computation in terms of time by carrying out the computation by using;

the number of inquired units in a past time bucket corresponding to the computation-point time bucket obtained from the inquiry information icL(r) obtained from the inquiry information database unit (21), the order-reception rate Rc obtained from the order-reception rate computing unit (31), and the lead times LTc obtained from the lead-time computing unit (41); and

a totaling unit (304) that obtains the number of the units to be shipped to the corporation by adding, for each time bucket, the numbers of the units predicted to be shipped, the numbers computed by the demand prediction computing unit (301) and the demand prediction computing unit (302); and

the totaling unit (400) obtains the total number of the units predicted to be shipped by adding, for each time bucket, the number of the units predicted to be shipped to the dealers in each time bucket, the number obtained by the totaling unit (204), and the number of the units predicted to be shipped to the corporations in each time bucket, the number obtained by the totaling unit (304).