PREDICTING PRODUCTION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS

• US 20150094969A1
• Filed: 12/08/2014
• Published: 04/02/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 05/04/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Fluke Corporation (Fortive Corp.)
• Original Assignee: Solmetric Corporation (Fortive Corp.)
• Inventors: Jungerman, Roger L.
• Granted Patent: US 9,660,576 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/61
• CPC Class Codes: H02S 50/10 Testing of PV devices, e.g. of PV modules or single PV cells testing of semiconductor devices during manufacturing H01L22/00
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 10/50 Photovoltaic [PV] energy

Abstract

The present invention is directed to methods, systems, and devices for predicting production of a photovoltaic (PV) system. A method may include establishing a reference performance model for a reference PV system at a reference site. Further, the method may include establishing a performance factor for an installed PV system based on configuration parameters of the installed PV system, measurements of the installed PV system, weather data at an installation site of the installed PV system and a comparison of the measurements of the installed PV system to the reference performance model. The method may also include predicting production of the installed PV system based on the performance factor, cumulative weather data and a time dependent performance ratio.

Claims

1. A method, comprising:

establishing a reference performance model for a reference photovoltaic (PV) system at a reference site;

establishing a performance factor for an installed PV system based on configuration parameters of the installed PV system, measurements of the installed PV system, weather data at an installation site of the installed PV system and a comparison of the measurements of the installed PV system to the reference performance model; and

predicting production of the installed PV system based on the performance factor, cumulative weather data and a time dependent performance ratio.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein establishing the reference performance model comprises establishing the reference performance model based on configuration parameters for the reference PV system, measurements of the reference PV system, and weather at the reference site.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein establishing the reference performance model comprises establishing the reference performance model including at least one of a fill factor aging component and a short circuit current aging component.

4. The method of claim 2, wherein establishing the reference performance model comprises establishing the reference performance model including at least one of a fill factor aging component and a short circuit current aging component.

5. The method of claim 3, wherein establishing the reference performance model comprises establishing the reference performance model including the short circuit current aging component established relative to a reference cell.

6. The method of claim 3, wherein establishing a performance factor comprising establishing the performance factor used to establish pass or fail status of a commissioning test.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein predicting production of the installed PV system based on the performance factor, cumulative weather data and the time dependent performance ratio comprises predicting production of the installed PV system based on the performance factor, Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data and the time dependent performance ratio.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein predicting production of the installed PV system based on the performance factor, cumulative weather data and the time dependent performance ratio comprises accommodating for soiling of modules within the installed PV system.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein establishing a reference model comprises:

providing reference site configuration parameters, reference site weather data, and performance measurements for the reference PV system to a production simulator; and

providing the reference model via the production simulator.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein providing performance measurements for the reference PV system comprises providing current-voltage (IV) curve data and AC production data.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein providing IV curve data comprises obtaining the IV curve data via an IV monitor.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein obtaining the IV curve data via an IV monitor comprises obtaining the IV curve data via at least one of a shunt monitor, a microinverter, a power optimizer, and a string inverter.

13. A system, comprising:

at least one processor configured to;

establish a reference performance model for a reference photovoltaic (PV) system at a reference site;

establish a performance factor for an installed PV system based on configuration parameters of the installed PV system, measurements of the installed PV system, weather data at an installation site of the installed PV system and a comparison of the measurements of the installed PV system to the reference performance model; and

predict production of the installed PV system based on the performance factor, cumulative weather data (TMY) and a time dependent performance ratio.

14. The system of claim 13, wherein the measurements of the installed PV system are at least partially based on at least one measurement device configured to obtain current-voltage (IV) curve data for the installed PV system.

15. The system of claim 13, further comprising:

the reference PV system including at least one PV module and a production simulator configured to generate the reference performance model in response to at least one of weather data at the reference site, configuration parameters at the reference site, and performance measurements of the reference PV system; and

the installed PV system including at least one PV module and a production simulator configured to generate the performance factor.

16. The system of claim 15, wherein the reference PV system further includes a reference cell for providing a constant short circuit current response independent of aging.

17. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing instructions that when executed by at least one processor cause the at least one processor to perform instructions, the instructions comprising:

establishing a reference performance model for a reference photovoltaic (PV) system at a reference site;

establishing a performance factor for an installed PV system based on configuration parameters of the installed PV system, measurements of the installed PV system, weather data at an installation site of the installed PV system and a comparison of the measurements of the installed PV system to the reference performance model; and

predicting production of the installed PV system based on the performance factor, cumulative weather data and a time dependent performance ratio.

18. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 17, wherein establishing the reference performance model comprises establishing the reference performance model based on configuration parameters for the reference PV system, measurements of the reference PV system, and weather at the reference site.

19. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 17, wherein establishing a reference model comprises:

providing reference site configuration parameters, reference site weather data, and performance measurements for the reference PV system to a production simulator; and

providing the reference model via the production simulator.

20. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 17, wherein establishing a performance factor for the installed PV system based on measurements of the installed PV system comprises establishing the performance factor based on received current-voltage (IV) curve data for the installed PV system.