REAL-TIME INDICATOR OF GLOBAL TRADE

• US 20150324913A1
• Filed: 05/09/2014
• Published: 11/12/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 05/09/2014
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Kuehne + Nagel International AG (Kã¼Hne Holding AG)
• Original Assignee: Kuehne + Nagel International AG (Kã¼Hne Holding AG)
• Inventors: Gernandt, Karl
• Granted Patent: US 10,607,287 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0831 Overseas transactions
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange

Abstract

A real-time indicator of global trade can be generated. The real-time indicator provides a comprehensive indicator of the current global economic state by tracking current values for the available capacity for freight shipments as well as the volume of actual shipments. The capacity and volume can be tracked over multiple different transportation modes including sea, air, and rail. The real-time indicator is generated in real-time based on these current values. The real-time indicator can therefore provide investors, analysts, researchers, bankers, and the like with a reliable indicator of the current global economic state that is not heavily influenced by the biasing sentiments of individuals.

Claims

1. A method, performed by a computing system, for generating a real-time indicator of global trade, the method comprising:

receiving, by the computing system, one or more capacity metrics representing freight capacity for a first type of freight during a first time period;

receiving, by the computing system, one or more volume metrics representing freight volume for the first type of freight during the first time period;

generating, by the computing system, a first capacity component based on the one or more capacity metrics;

generating, by the computing system, a first volume component based on the one or more volume metrics;

combining, by the computing system, the first capacity component and the first volume component to generate the real-time indicator of global trade; and

transmitting, by the computing system, the real-time indicator of global trade to another computing system.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the first type of freight comprises sea freight, and wherein the one or more capacity metrics comprise one or more of gross tonnage, gross tonnage kilometers, number of departures, or speed.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the first type of freight comprises sea freight, and wherein the one or more volume metrics comprise one or more of twenty-foot units, number of shipments, shipment kilometers, or draft.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the first type of freight comprises sea freight such that the first capacity component comprises a sea freight capacity component, and wherein generating the sea freight capacity component comprises:

generating one or more of the following factors based on the one or more capacity metrics;

a number of departures (NOD) factor representing the number of departures of vessels during the first time period;

a gross tonnage (GT) factor representing the gross tonnage of each vessel that departed during the first time period;

a gross tonnage kilometers (GTK) based on the GT;

a GO/STOP factor representing a ratio of vessels in transit during the first time period to vessels in port or reporting zero knots during the first time period;

or

a knots (KTS) factor representing the average speed of each vessel that was in transit during the first time period; and

generating the sea freight capacity component by combining one or more of the factors.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the first type of freight comprises sea freight such that the first volume component comprises a sea freight volume component, and wherein generating the sea freight volume component comprises:

generating one or more of the following factors based on the one or more volume metrics;

a twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) factor representing a number of TEUs transported during the first time period;

a number of shipments (NOS) factor representing a number of shipments made during the first time period;

a shipment kilometers (SHK) factor representing the distance of each shipment made during the first time period;

an EXPORT/IMPORT factor representing a ratio of exports to imports during the first time period;

a NOS COUNTRIES factor representing a number of shipments that are exported from and imported to each of a number of countries during the first time period;

or

a draft (DR) factor representing a draft of each vessel that departed during the first time period; and

generating the sea freight volume component by combining one or more of the factors.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the first type of freight comprises air freight, and wherein the one or more capacity metrics comprise one or more of available freight tonnage, available freight tonnage kilometers, and a number of departures.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the first type of freight comprises air freight, and wherein the one or more volume metrics comprise one or more of a number of shipments, chargeable weight, and chargeable weight kilometers.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the first type of freight comprises air freight such that the first capacity component comprises an air freight capacity component, and wherein generating the air freight capacity component comprises:

generating one or more of the following factors based on the one or more capacity metrics;

a number of cargo departures (NOD_cargo) factor representing the number of cargo aircraft that departed during the first time period;

a number of commercial departures (NOD_commercial) factor representing a number of commercial aircraft that departed during the first time period;

an available freight tonnage (AFT) factor representing an available capacity of a number of monitored cargo aircraft that departed during the first time period;

an available freight tonnage kilometers (AFTK) factor based on the AFT;

a number of scheduled commercial departures (NOD SCHEDULED_commercial) factor representing a number of commercial departures that are scheduled during a subsequent time period;

a number of scheduled cargo departures (NOD SCHEDULED_cargo) factor representing a number of cargo departures that are scheduled during the subsequent time period;

or

an aircraft very short term plan (VSTP_aircraft) factor representing a ratio of a number of cargo departures during the first time period to a number of cargo departures that were scheduled during the first time period; and

generating the air freight capacity component by combining one or more of the factors.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the first type of freight comprises air freight such that the first volume component comprises an air freight volume component, and wherein generating the air freight volume component comprises:

generating one or more of the following factors based on the one or more capacity metrics;

a chargeable weight (CW) factor representing a chargeable weight of freight on a number of monitored cargo aircraft during the first time period;

a chargeable weight kilometers (CWK) factor based on the CW;

a number of shipments (NOS_cargo) factor representing the number of shipments made by monitored cargo aircraft during the first time period;

or

a NOS_cargo COUNTRIES factor representing a number of shipments that are exported from and imported to each of a number of countries during the first time period; and

generating the air freight volume component by combining one or more of the factors.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the first type of freight is sea freight such that the first capacity component is a sea freight capacity component and the first volume component is a sea freight volume component, the method further comprising:

receiving, by the computing system, one or more air freight capacity metrics representing air freight capacity during the first time period;

receiving, by the computing system, one or more air freight volume metrics representing air freight volume during the first time period;

generating, by the computing system, an air freight capacity component based on the one or more air freight capacity metrics;

generating, by the computing system, an air freight volume component based on the one or more air freight volume metrics; and

wherein the real-time indicator of global trade is generated by combining the sea freight capacity component, the sea freight volume component, the air freight capacity component, and the air freight volume component.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein combining the sea freight capacity component, the sea freight volume component, the air freight capacity component, and the air freight volume component comprises performing a weighted average of the components, wherein the sea freight capacity and volume components are weighted more heavily than the air freight capacity and volume components.

13. The method of claim 10, further comprising:

generating, by the computing system, an economic sentiment component based on information obtained from websites of a plurality of companies indicating the companies'"'"' intentions to expand, stabilize, or restrict growth; and

wherein the real-time indicator of global trade is generated by combining the sea freight capacity component, the sea freight volume component, the air freight capacity component, the air freight volume component, and the economic sentiment component.

14. The method of claim 1, wherein the first time period comprises a rolling time period.

12. The method of 10, further comprising:

receiving, by the computing system, one or more rail freight capacity metrics representing rail freight capacity during the first time period;

receiving, by the computing system, one or more rail freight volume metrics representing rail freight volume during the first time period;

generating, by the computing system, a rail freight capacity component based on the one or more rail freight capacity metrics;

generating, by the computing system, a rail freight volume component based on the one or more rail freight volume metrics; and

wherein the real-time indicator of global trade is generated by combining the sea freight capacity component, the sea freight volume component, the air freight capacity component, the air freight volume component, the rail freight capacity component, and the rail freight volume component.

15. One or more computer storage media storing computer executable instructions which when executed by one or more processors of a computing system perform a method for generating a real-time indicator of global trade, the method comprising:

receiving one or more sea freight capacity metrics representing sea freight capacity during a first time period;

receiving one or more sea freight volume metrics representing sea freight volume during the first time period;

generating a sea freight capacity component based on the one or more sea freight capacity metrics;

generating a sea freight volume component based on the one or more sea freight volume metrics;

receiving one or more air freight capacity metrics representing air freight capacity during the first time period;

receiving one or more air freight volume metrics representing air freight volume during the first time period;

generating an air freight capacity component based on the one or more air freight capacity metrics;

generating an air freight volume component based on the one or more air freight volume metrics;

combining the sea freight capacity component, the sea freight volume component, the air freight capacity component, and the air freight volume component to generate the real-time indicator of global trade; and

transmitting the real-time indicator of global trade to another computing system.

16. The one or more computer storage media of claim 15, wherein at least some of the sea freight capacity metrics or the sea freight volume metrics is obtained from an Automatic Identification System (AIS) system.

17. The one or more computer storage media of claim 15, wherein one or more of the sea freight capacity component, the sea freight volume component, the air freight capacity component, or the air freight volume component is comprised of sub-components corresponding to different countries.

18. The one or more computer storage media of claim 15, wherein:

the one or more sea freight capacity metrics comprise one or more of gross tonnage, gross tonnage kilometers, number of departures, or speed;

the one or more sea freight volume metrics comprise one or more of twenty-foot units, number of shipments, shipment kilometers, or draft;

the one or more air freight capacity metrics comprise one or more of available freight tonnage, available freight tonnage kilometers, and a number of departures; and

the one or more air freight volume metrics comprise one or more of a number of shipments, chargeable weight, and chargeable weight kilometers.

19. A system for generating a real-time indicator of global trade, the system comprising:

one or more processors; and

one or more computer storage media storing computer executable instructions which when executed by the one or more processors implement a method for generating a real-time indicator of global trade, the method comprising;

generating a sea freight capacity component based on one or more sea freight capacity metrics, the one or more sea freight capacity metrics identifying sea freight capacity during a first period of time;

generating a sea freight volume component based on one or more sea freight volume metrics, the one or more sea freight volume metrics identifying sea freight volume during the first period of time;

generating an air freight capacity component based on one or more air freight capacity metrics, the one or more air freight capacity metrics identifying air freight capacity during the first period of time;

generating an air freight volume component based on one or more air freight volume metrics, the one or more air freight volume metrics identifying air freight volume during the first period of time;

generating a real-time indicator of global trade by combining the sea freight capacity component, the sea freight volume component, the air freight capacity component, and the air freight volume component; and

transmitting the real-time indicator of global trade to another computing system.

20. The system of claim 19, wherein the method implemented by executing the computer executable instructions further comprises:

generating a rail freight capacity component based on one or more rail freight capacity metrics, the one or more rail freight capacity metrics identifying rail freight capacity during the first period of time; and

generating a rail freight volume component based on one or more rail freight volume metrics, the one or more rail freight volume metrics identifying rail freight volume during the first period of time;

wherein the real-time indicator of global trade is generated by combining the sea freight capacity component, the sea freight volume component, the air freight capacity component, the air freight volume component, the rail freight capacity component, and the rail freight volume component.