Dynamic Prediction of Risk Levels for Manufacturing Operations through Leading Risk Indicators: Dynamic Risk Analyzer Engine

• US 20160148107A1
• Filed: 02/01/2016
• Published: 05/26/2016
• Est. Priority Date: 10/10/2014
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Near-Miss Management, LLC
• Original Assignee: Near-Miss Management, LLC
• Inventors: Pariyani, Ankur, BESPALOV, DMITRIY, Oktem, Ulku G., Cielak, Luis
• Granted Patent: US 10,268,962 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/024 Quantitative history assessment, e.g. mathematical relationships between available data; Functions therefor; Principal component analysis [PCA]; Partial least square [PLS]; Statistical classifiers, e.g. Bayesian networks, linear regression or correlation analysis; Neural networks
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/0278 Qualitative, e.g. if-then rules; Fuzzy logic; Lookup tables; Symptomatic search; FMEA
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/04 Inference or reasoning models

Abstract

The dynamic risk analyzer (DRA) provided by the present invention periodically assesses real-time or historic process data, or both, associated with an operations site, such as a manufacturing, production, or processing facility, including a plant'"'"'s operations, and identifies hidden near-misses of such operation, when in real time the process data appears otherwise normal. DRA assesses the process data in a manner that enables operating personnel including management at a facility to have a comprehensive understanding of the risk status and changes in both alarm and non-alarm based process variables. The hidden process near-miss data may be analyzed alone or in combination with other process data and/or data resulting from prior near-miss situations to permit strategic action to be taken to reduce or avert the occurrence of adverse incidents or catastrophic failure of a facility operation.

Claims

1. A system for predicting risk levels for manufacturing operations with risk indicators comprising:

a server that receives process data from a real-time data source and/or a historical archive data source comprising a relational database with a key-value storage solution;

a processor that analyzes values of parameters P and/or groups G of said parameters P of said process data at time interval T to identify operational risk and/or near-miss risk that would otherwise be unknown or concealed in parameters P, whereby said operational risk and/or near-miss risk may be used for strategic corrective action; and

a display that presents said operational risk and/or near-miss risk in a graphic that visually depicts a plotted value V of parameter(s) P of said operational risk and/or near-miss risk in time interval T relationally within time period TP;

wherein said system continuously and autonomously operates contemporaneously with said manufacturing operation.

2. A method for dynamic prediction of risk levels in a manufacturing operation comprising:

identifying risk and/or near-miss risk of said manufacturing operation that would otherwise be unknown or concealed in parameters P and/or groups G of said parameters P of process data, said process data comprising;

data collected from said manufacturing operation and processed in either (a) real-time or (b) from an archive server having a relational database with a key-value storage solution, or both; and

displaying said risk or near-miss risk in a graphic that visually reports a plotted value V of parameter(s) P of said risk or near-miss risk relationally within time T period, whereby said plotted value V is displayed with a variable visual indicator corresponding with magnitude of said plotted value V;

wherein said method is performed continuously and autonomously.

3. A display system for risk indicators for a manufacturing operation comprising:

identifying risk and/or near-miss risk of said manufacturing operation that would otherwise be unknown or concealed in parameters P and/or groups G of said parameters P of process data in either real-time and/or historically from an archive server having a relational database with a key-value storage solution;

plotting parameter P of said risk and/or near-miss risk on a circular or semi-circular chart of graphic visual indicators comprising;

a petal for P parameter at each T time interval;

said petal comprising an area plotted with a radius R having a maximum and minimum reportable length and an angle spread greater than 1 degree, wherein said length of said radius R corresponds with a magnitude of said parameter P at said T time interval and partially determines said area of said petal displayed on said chart; and

displaying said parameter P at a time interval on said chart over a predetermined time period TP.