SYSTEM AND METHOD PROVIDING EARLY PREDICTION AND FORECASTING OF FALSE ALARMS BY APPLYING STATISTICAL INFERENCE MODELS

• US 20170061783A1
• Filed: 09/01/2015
• Published: 03/02/2017
• Est. Priority Date: 09/01/2015
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Honeywell International Inc.
• Original Assignee: Honeywell International Inc.
• Inventors: Sethi, Aatish, Naraharisetti, Kanaka Nagendra Prasad, Singam, Kiran Reddy, Nalukurthy, RajeshBabu
• Granted Patent: US 10,522,031 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 13/19682 Graphic User Interface [GUI] presenting system data to the user, e.g. information on a screen helping a user interacting with an alarm system
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 17/10 Actuation by presence of smoke or gases , e.g. automatic alarm devices for analysing flowing fluid materials by the use of optical means
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 21/16 Combustible gas alarms
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 25/008 Alarm setting and unsetting, i.e. arming or disarming of the security system
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 25/009 Signalling of the alarm condition to a substation whose identity is signalled to a central station, e.g. relaying alarm signals in order to extend communication range
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 25/08 using communication transmission lines G08B13/19658, G08B21/0286, G08B25/016 take precedence
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 25/14 Central alarm receiver or annunciator arrangements
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 26/008 central annunciator means of the sensed conditions, e.g. displaying or registering
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 29/185 Signal analysis techniques for reducing or preventing false alarms or for enhancing the reliability of the system
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 29/186 Fuzzy logic; neural networks
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 31/00 Predictive alarm systems characterised by extrapolation or other computation using updated historic data

Abstract

A diagnostics and prediction system including a cloud system that continuously collects operating parameters from each of a number of environmental sensors and provides access to this data by a plurality of processing applications including (1) a predictive modeling system including (a) a health prediction system, (b) a sensor false alarm prediction system, (c) a zone false alarm prediction system and (d) a reporting system, (2) a system that diagnoses and predicts environmental hazardous areas and clusters areas based upon concentrations of CO in the site or building; and (3) a battery prediction system that predicts a battery life for the sensor.

Claims

1. An apparatus comprising:

a cloud system embodied as a set of steps executing on a processor, the cloud system being coupled to a security system having a plurality of sensors that detect threats within a secured area, the cloud system continuously collects operating parameters from each environmental sensor of the plurality of sensors as data, maintains a history of this data in a cloud database and provides access to this data by a plurality of processing applications, the processing applications further comprising;

(1) a predictive modeling system further comprising;

(a) a health prediction system that compares values of the collected parameters of each sensor with one or more thresholds to classify the sensor into one of two categories of either good or bad and determines an overall health of the security system based upon the numbers of each;

(b) a sensor false alarm prediction system that predicts false alarms in a building, the system mines device data including changes of the parameters from original values, a rate of change of parameters and spontaneous changes in the parameters and predicts a probability of false alarms based upon time period;

(c) a zone false alarm prediction system that clusters zones of the security system based upon the collected data, predicts a probability of false alarms per clustered zone based upon time period and sends their location to authorized persons on a two or three dimensional floor plan; and

(d) a reporting system that generates a graphical, probabilistic, predicted, possible false alarm report including information from the health prediction system, the sensor false alarm prediction system and the zone false alarm prediction system and sends the generated report to an authorized human user;

(2) a system to diagnose and also predict environmental hazardous areas for a site or building of the secured area that mines carbon monoxide (CO) data parameters from each CO sensor of the plurality of sensors including one or more of CO concentration, CO detection state of the sensor and last maintenance date of the CO sensor over a period of time, runs a statistical inference model for each area of the site or building and clusters areas into hazardous areas based upon concentrations of CO in the site or building; and

(3) a battery prediction system that mines battery status for each wireless sensors or sensors that are operated by batteries of the plurality of sensors over a period of time along with a network status including at least a status of either a parent or child node in a mesh network to predict a battery life for the sensor.

2. The system as in claim 1 wherein the plurality of sensors further comprise fire sensors.

3. The system as in claim 1 wherein the plurality of sensors further comprise intrusion sensors.

4. The system as in claim 1 further comprising a mapping processor that generates a two dimensional map of battery failure within the secured area based upon a selected time period.

5. The system as in claim 1 further comprising a mapping processor that generates a two dimensional map of hazardous areas within the secured area based upon concentrations of CO.

6. An apparatus comprising:

a security system that protects a secured geographic area;

a plurality of sensors that detect environmental threats within the secured area;

a cloud memory that saves operating parameters and activation reports from each of the plurality of sensors; and

a cloud processor that analyzes the operating parameters and activation reports and generates a probability report of a false alarm within X days based upon a rate of change and random changes of operating parameters and the activation reports for each of the plurality of sensors and sends the generated report to an authorized human user of the security system.

7. The apparatus as in claim 6 wherein the cloud memory and cloud processor further comprise a cloud system embodied as a set of steps executing on a processor that collects operating parameters from each environmental sensor of the plurality of sensors as data, maintains a history of this data in a cloud database and provides access to this data by a plurality of processing applications.

8. The apparatus as in claim 7 wherein the plurality of processing applications further comprises a predictive modeling system.

9. The apparatus as in claim 8 wherein the predictive modeling system further comprises a health prediction system that compares values of the collected parameters of each sensor with one or more thresholds to classify the sensor into one of two categories of either good or bad and determines a overall health of the security system based upon the numbers of each.

10. The apparatus as in claim 8 wherein the predictive modeling system further comprises a sensor false alarm prediction system that predicts false alarms in a building, the system mines device data including changes of the parameters from original values, a rate of change of parameters and spontaneous changes in the parameters and predicts a probability of false alarms based upon time period.

11. The apparatus as in claim 8 wherein the predictive modeling system further comprises a zone false alarm prediction system that clusters zones of the security system based upon the collected data, predicts a probability of false alarms per clustered zone based upon time period and sends their location to authorized persons on a two or three dimensional floor plan.

12. The apparatus as in claim 8 wherein the predictive modeling system further comprises a reporting system that generates a graphical, probabilistic, predicted, possible false alarm report including information from the health prediction system, the sensor false alarm prediction system and the zone false alarm prediction system for maintenance operations.

13. The apparatus as in claim 7 wherein the plurality of processing applications further comprises an environmental hazardous area system for a site or building of the secured area that mines carbon monoxide (CO) data parameters from each CO sensor of the plurality of sensors including one or more of CO concentration, CO detection state of the sensor and last maintenance date of the CO sensor over a period of time, runs a statistical inference model for each area of the site or building and clusters areas into hazardous areas based upon concentrations of CO in the site or building.

14. The apparatus as in claim 7 wherein the plurality of processing applications further comprises a battery prediction system that mines battery status for each wireless sensor of the plurality of sensors over a period of time along with a network status including at least a status of either a parent or child node in a mesh network to predict a battery life for the sensor.

15. An apparatus comprising:

a security system that protects a secured geographic area;

a plurality of sensors that detect environmental threats within the secured area; and

a cloud system embodied as a set of steps executing on a processor, the cloud system being coupled to the security system, the cloud system collects operating parameters from each environmental sensor of the plurality of sensors as data, maintains a history of this data in a cloud database and provides access to this data by a plurality of processing applications that analyze the operating parameters and activation reports and generates a probability report of a false alarm within X days based upon a rate of change and random changes of operating parameters and the activation reports for each of the plurality of sensors and sends the probability report to a human user of the security system.

16. The apparatus as in claim 15 wherein the plurality of processing applications further comprises a predictive modeling system including a health prediction system that compares values of the collected parameters of each sensor with one or more thresholds to classify the sensor into one of two categories of either good or bad and determines a overall health of the security system based upon the numbers of each.

17. The apparatus as in claim 15 wherein the plurality of processing applications further comprises a predictive modeling system including a sensor false alarm prediction system that predicts false alarms in a building, the system mines device data including changes of the parameters from original values, a rate of change of parameters and spontaneous changes in the parameters and predicts a probability of false alarms based upon time period.

18. The apparatus as in claim 15 wherein the plurality of processing applications further comprises a predictive modeling system including a zone false alarm prediction system that clusters zones of the security system based upon the collected data, predicts a probability of false alarms per clustered zone based upon time period and sends their location to authorized persons on a two or three dimensional floor plan.

19. The apparatus as in claim 15 wherein the predictive modeling system further comprises a reporting system that generates a graphical, probabilistic, predicted, possible false alarm report including information from the health prediction system, the sensor false alarm prediction system and the zone false alarm prediction system for maintenance operations.

20. The apparatus as in claim 15 wherein the plurality of processing applications further comprises an environmental hazardous area system for a site or building of the secured area that mines carbon monoxide (CO) data parameters from each CO sensor of the plurality of sensors including one or more of CO concentration, CO detection state of the sensor and last maintenance date of the CO sensor over a period of time, runs a statistical inference model for each area of the site or building and clusters areas into hazardous areas based upon concentrations of CO in the site or building.