Financial risk prediction systems and methods therefor

• US 6,119,103 A
• Filed: 05/27/1997
• Issued: 09/12/2000
• Est. Priority Date: 05/27/1997
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: Visa International Service Association (Visa, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Visa International Service Association (Visa, Inc.)
• Inventors: Siegel, Kevin, Faith, Patrick, Bruesewitz, Belva J., Basch, Catherine A.
• Primary Examiner(s): Poinvil, Frantzy
• Application Number:
  US08/863,666
• Time in Patent Office: 1,204 Days
• Field of Search: 705/35, 705/38-40, 705/44, 235/379-381
• US Class Current: 705/35
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/341 Active cards, i.e. cards including their own processing means, e.g. including an IC or chip
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/40 Authorisation, e.g. identification of payer or payee, verification of customer or shop credentials; Review and approval of payers, e.g. check credit lines or negative lists
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/40145 Biometric identity checks
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/4016 involving fraud or risk level assessment in transaction processing
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/403 Solvency checks
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/4037 Remote solvency checks
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/03 Credit; Loans; Processing thereof
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance
• CPC Class Codes: G07F 7/08 by coded identity card or credit card or other personal identification means without personal verification means G07F7/02
• CPC Class Codes: G07F 7/1008 Active credit-cards provided with means to personalise their use, e.g. with PIN-introduction/comparison system

Abstract

A computer-implemented method for predicting financial risk, which includes receiving first transaction data pertaining to transactions performed on a first financial account. The first financial account represents a financial account issued to a given account holder by a first account issuer. The method further includes receiving second transaction data pertaining to transaction performed on a second financial account different from the first financial account. The second financial account represents a financial account issued to the given account holder by a second account issuer different from the first account issuer. There is further included scoring the first transaction data and the second transaction data based on a preexisting model to form a score for the account holder. Additionally, there is included transmitting, if the score is below a predefined financial risk threshold, the score to one of the first account issuer and the second account issuer.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for predicting financial risk, the computer-implemented method comprising:

receiving transaction data pertaining to a plurality of transactions for a credit account, said transaction data including at least one of a transaction type and a transaction amount for each transaction of said plurality of transactions;

scoring said transaction data, wherein scoring said transaction data includes scoring a transaction pattern ascertained from said transaction data based on a preexisting model to form a score for said credit account, the transaction pattern being indicative of a pattern associated with the plurality of transactions for the credit account, said transaction pattern being arranged to include events that impact the financial risk;

determining when said score is below a predefined financial risk; and

transmitting said score to an account issuer of said credit account when it is determined that said score is below the predefined financial risk.

2. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 1 wherein said account issuer is a first account issuer, the method further including:

transmitting said score to a second account issuer of a different credit account when said score is determined to be below said predefined financial risk, said second account issuer being different from said first account issuer.

3. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 1 wherein said transaction data is current transaction data.

4. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 3 further including:

generating the preexisting model, wherein the preexisting model is generated using non-current transaction data.

5. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 1 further including:

archiving the transaction data.

6. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 1 further including:

transmitting said score to a transaction authorization system, wherein when said score is determined not to be below the predefined financial risk, the transaction authorization system is arranged to deny an authorization request.

7. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 1 further including:

generating a new model, the new model being arranged to replace the preexisting model, wherein the new model is generated using the transaction data and the preexisting model, wherein the transaction data includes current transaction data pertaining to a current transaction for the credit account.

8. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 1 wherein said transaction data includes current transaction data and historical transaction data.

9. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 2 wherein at least one of the first transaction data and the second transaction data includes current transaction data.

10. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 1 wherein the transaction data includes scoreable transactions, the scoreable transactions including account/account holder-level data pertaining to an account holder of the credit account, the credit account being one of a plurality of credit accounts issued to the account holder.

11. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 10 wherein the account/account holder-level data includes public records data.

12. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 10 wherein the account/account holder-level data includes data other than data pertaining to an exchange of credit for one of goods, services, and cash.

13. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 1 wherein the transaction data is scored in between billing cycles for the account issuer.

14. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 1 wherein the transaction data includes financial transaction data obtained in between billing cycles for a account holder of the credit account.

15. A computer-implemented method for predicting financial risk, the computer-implemented method comprising:

receiving first transaction data pertaining to a first transaction performed on a first credit account, said first credit account representing a credit account issued to a given account holder by a first account issuer;

receiving second transaction data pertaining to a second transaction performed on a second credit account, said second credit account being different from said first credit account, said second credit account representing a credit account issued to said given account holder by a second account issuer, said second account issuer being different from said first account issuer;

scoring said first transaction data and said second transaction data, based on a preexisting model to form a combined score for said given account holder;

determining when the combined score is below a predefined financial risk threshold; and

transmitting said combined score to at least one of said first account issuer and said second account issuer when it is determined that said combined score is below the predefined financial risk threshold.

16. The computer-implemented method of claim 15 wherein a social security number of said given account holder is employed as a key to identify said first credit account and said second credit account as being issued to said given account holder.

17. The computer implemented method of claim 15 further comprising:

determining when said combined score reflects a high level of financial risk;

transmitting said combined score to a third account issuer, said third account issuer bring different from both said first account issuer and said second account issuer when said combined score reflects the high level of financial risk, said third account issuer representing an issuer of credit to said given account holder.

18. A financial risk prediction system, the financial risk prediction system comprising:

a receiving mechanism, the receiving mechanism being arranged to receive scoreable transaction data from a first data source, the scoreable transaction data being associated with a first credit account issued to a given account holder by an account issuer, wherein the scoreable transaction data includes current transaction data;

an authenticator, the authenticator being in communication with the receiving mechanism, the authenticator being arranged to authenticate scoreable transaction data received by the receiving mechanism, wherein the scoreable transaction data includes transaction data for the first credit account and transaction data for a second account;

a scoring mechanism, the scoring mechanism being arranged to generate a score associated with the given account holder, the score being arranged to indicate a financial risk level of the given account holder, wherein the scoring mechanism is arranged to generate the score using the scoreable transaction data in conjunction with a predictive model;

an evaluator, the evaluator being arranged to compare the score against a predefined financial risk threshold;

a transmitter, the transmitter being arranged to transmit the score to the account issuer; and

a transaction authorizing mechanism, the transaction authorizing mechanism being in communication with the receiving mechanism and being arranged to authorize a first current transaction included in the current transaction data by determining that the score does not exceed the predefined financial risk threshold.

19. A computer program product for predicting financial risk, the computer program product comprising:

computer code for receiving first transaction data pertaining to a first transaction performed on a first credit account, the first credit account representing a credit account issued to a given account holder by a first account issuer;

computer code for receiving second transaction data pertaining to a second transaction performed on a second credit account, the second credit account being different from the first credit account, the second credit account representing a credit account issued to the given account holder by a second account issuer, the second account issuer being different from said first account issuer;

computer code for scoring the first transaction data and the second transaction data based on a preexisting predictive model to form a combined score for the given account holder, the computer code for scoring including computer code for obtaining a first transaction pattern from the first transaction data and computer code for obtaining a second transaction pattern from the second transaction data;

computer code for determining when the combined score is below a predefined financial risk threshold;

computer code for transmitting the combined score to at least one of the first account issuer and the second account issuer when it is determined that the combined score is below the predefined financial risk threshold; and

a computer readable medium that stores the computer codes, wherein the computer codes stored on the computer-readable medium are arranged to be accessed and processed by a computing system.

20. A computer-implemented method for predicting financial risk, the computer-implemented method comprising:

receiving transaction data pertaining to a plurality of transactions for a credit account, the transaction data including at least one of a transaction type and a transaction amount for each transaction of the plurality of transactions;

determining when the transaction data is valid;

scoring the transaction data when it is determined that the transaction data is valid, wherein scoring the transaction data includes scoring a transaction pattern asc ertained from the transaction data based on a preexisting model to form a score for the credit account, the transaction pattern being indicative of a pattern associated with the plurality of transactions for the credit account, the transaction pattern being arranged to include events that impact the financial risk;

determining when the score is below a predefined financial risk; and

transmitting the score to an account issuer of the credit account when it is determined that said score is below the predefined financial risk.

21. A computer program product for predicting financial risk, the computer program product comprising:

computer code for receiving transaction data pertaining to a plurality of transactions for a credit account, the transaction data including at least one of a transaction type and a transaction amount for each transaction of the plurality of transactions;

computer code for scoring the transaction data, wherein the computer code for scoring the transaction data includes computer code for scoring a transaction pattern ascertained from the transaction data based on a preexisting predictive model to form a score for the credit account, the transaction pattern being indicative of a pattern associated with the plurality of transactions for the credit account;

computer code for determining when the score is below a predefined financial risk;

computer code for transmitting the score to an account issuer of the credit account when it is determined that the score is below the predefined financial risk; and

a computer-readable medium that stores the computer codes, wherein the computer codes stored on the computer-readable medium are arranged to be accessed and processed by a computing system.

22. A computer program product as recited in claim 21 wherein the transaction data is current transaction data.

23. A computer program product as recited in claim 22 further including:

computer code for generating the preexisting predictive model, wherein the preexisting predictive model is generated using non-current transaction data.

24. A computer-implemented method for assessing financial risk, the computer-implemented method comprising:

receiving current event data pertaining to a plurality of events for a first credit account issued to an account holder, the current event data including at least one of a transaction type and a transaction amount for each event of the plurality of events for the first credit account;

processing the current event data to generate a score associated with the account holder, wherein processing the current event data includes scoring an event pattern ascertained from the current event data based on a preexisting predictive model, the preexisting predictive model being generated using historical event data, the historical event data including data associated with the first credit account and data associated with at least a second credit account;

determining when the score is below a predefined financial risk threshold; and

transmitting the score to a first account issuer of the first credit account when it is determined that the score is below the predefined financial risk threshold.

25. A computer-implemented method as recited in claim 24 further including receiving additional event data corresponding to a plurality of events for a second credit account issued to the account holder, the second credit account being issued by a second account issuer, wherein processing the current event data to generate the score associated with the account holder includes processing the additional event data.

26. A financial risk prediction system, the financial risk prediction system comprising:

a receiving mechanism, the receiving mechanism being arranged to receive scoreable transaction data from a first data source, the scoreable transaction data being associated with a first credit account issued to a given account holder by an account issuer;

an authenticator, the authenticator being in communication with the receiving mechanism, the authenticator being arranged to authenticate scoreable transaction data received by the receiving mechanism, wherein the scoreable transaction data includes transaction data from the first credit account and transaction data from a second credit account issued to the given account holder;

a scoring mechanism, the scoring mechanism being arranged to generate a score associated with the given account holder, the score being arranged to indicate a financial risk level of the given account holder, wherein the scoring mechanism is arranged to generate the score using the scoreable transaction data in conjunction with a predictive model;

an evaluator, the evaluator being arranged to compare the score against a predefined financial risk threshold; and

a transmitter, the transmitter being arranged to transmit the score to the account issuer.

27. A financial risk prediction system according to claim 26 further including a modeler, the modeler being arranged to generate the predictive model.

28. A financial risk prediction system according to claim 27 wherein the modeler is further arranged to update the predictive model using the scoreable transaction data received by the receiving mechanism.

29. A financial risk prediction system according to claim 26 further inluding a data storage mechanism, the data storage mechanism being arranged to store the scoreable transaction data received by the receiving mechanism.

30. A financial risk prediction system according to claim 26 wherein the scoreable transaction data includes current transaction data.

31. A financial risk prediction system according to claim 26 wherein the transmitter is arranged to transmit the score when the score is below the predefined financial risk threshold.

32. A financial risk prediction system according to claim 26 further including a management module, the management module being in communication with the scoring mechanism, the management module being arranged to determine the predefined financial risk threshold.

33. A financial risk prediction system according to claim 26 wherein the receiving mechanism is farther arranged to receive additional data associated with the given account holder from a second data source.

34. A financial risk prediction system according to claim 26 wherein the scoring mechanism includes a pattern generator, the pattern generator being arranged to obtain a transaction pattern from the scoreable transaction data, the transaction pattern being used to generate the score.