Method and device for predicting physiological values

  • US 6,180,416 B1
  • Filed: 09/30/1998
  • Issued: 01/30/2001
  • Est. Priority Date: 09/30/1998
  • Status: Expired due to Term
First Claim
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1. A method for continually or continuously measuring an analyte present in a biological system, said method comprising:

  • (a) transdermally extracting the analyte from the biological system using a sampling system that is in operative contact with a skin or mucosal surface of said biological system;

    (b) obtaining a raw signal from the extracted analyte, wherein said raw signal is specifically related to the analyte;

    (c) performing a calibration step which correlates the raw signal obtained in step (b) with a measurement value indicative of the concentration of analyte present in the biological system at the time of extraction;

    (d) repeating steps (a)-(b) to obtain a series of measurement values at selected time intervals, wherein the sampling system is maintained in operative contact with the skin or mucosal surface of said biological system to provide for a continual or continuous analyte measurement; and

    (e) predicting a measurement value based on the series of measurement values using the Mixtures of Experts algorithm, where the individual experts have a linear form An=



    wherein (An) is an analyte of interest, n is the number of experts, Ani is the analyte predicted by Expert i; and

    wi is a weighting value, and the individual experts Ani are further defined by the expression shown as Equation (2) Ani=



    wherein, Ani is the analyte predicted by Expert i;

    Pj is one of m parameters, m is typically less than 100;

    aij are coefficients; and

    zi is a constant; and

    further where the weighting value, wi, is defined by the formula shown as Equation (3) wi=edi[


    where e refers to than exponential function and the dk (note that the di in the numerator of Equation 3 is one of the dk) are a parameter set analogous to Equation 2 that is used to determine the weights wi, The dk are given by Equation 4 dk=





    where α

    jk is a coefficient, Pj is one of m parameters, and where ω

    k is a constant.

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