System and method for monitoring risk in a system development program

• US 6,397,202 B1
• Filed: 07/01/1999
• Issued: 05/28/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 07/01/1999
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: the united states of america as represented by the secretary of the navy
• Original Assignee: the united states of america as represented by the secretary of the navy
• Inventors: Higgins, Robert C., Thorpe, Steven W.
• Primary Examiner(s): Black, Thomas
• Assistant Examiner(s): Holmes, Michael B.
• Application Number:
  US09/349,355
• Time in Patent Office: 1,062 Days
• Field of Search: 706/45,47,11,48 705/1,36
• US Class Current: 706/47
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling

Abstract

A computerized system and method are provided that may be used to project a plurality of risk levels that may develop during the course of a large development project. A plurality of inputs are stored and converted for use to a metric that is used by an expert knowledge rule based system to determine a plurality of risk levels that develops relating to successful completion of a large development program with respect to elements such as cost, time of delivery, and quality. A plurality of outputs are provided in a form that can be used by a program manager to reduce the level of risk that may arise. In a preferred embodiment, the plurality of outputs are provided in a quantified manner that may relate to a probability of failure of one or more aspects of the development program. The rules are based on the knowledge and experience of experts and are predetermined so that risk levels are objectively quantified prior to beginning the project rather than subjectively determined during the course of the project. The system can be implemented on a PC and can be used by a metric analyst or program manager.

Claims

1. A method for monitoring risk related to a successful completion of a development project comprising the steps of:

determining a plurality of variables relating to said successful completion of said development project;

projecting a respective baseline of each of said plurality of variables for said successful completion of said development project;

collecting data values related to each of said plurality of variables over a period of time;

producing a rules module having therein rules based on knowledge developed from one or more experts relating to said plurality of variables for interpreting said data values with respect to said respective baseline;

utilizing said rules module, said data values and said respective baseline for said plurality of variables for determining a plurality of risk levels related to a probability of one or more undesirable events; and

providing a visual output representative of said plurality of risk levels.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein said development project involves development of a quantity of software.

3. The method of claim 1 further comprising determining each of said plurality of risk levels quantifiably.

4. The method of claim 3 wherein said visual output representative of said plurality of risk levels comprises a graph showing each of said plurality of risk levels plotted with respect to time during said development project.

5. The method of claim 1 wherein said plurality of risk levels are determined a plurality of selectable times during said development project.

6. The method of claim 1 further comprising converting each of said plurality of data values to a corresponding metric value.

7. The method of claim 6 further comprising utilizing said corresponding metric values to determine said plurality of risk levels.

8. The method of claim 7 further comprising determining each of said plurality of risk levels quantitatively.

9. The method of claim 1 where said data values relate to staffing levels, source lines of code and number of system requirements.

10. The method of claim 1 further comprising assigning weights to said plurality of variables relating to successful completion of said development project.

11. An expert system for determining risk in a development project, comprising:

a first plurality of rules for identifying and monitoring a plurality of risk factors each of said plurality of rules being based on expert knowledge;

a plurality of inputs for said expert system comprising data related to each of said plurality of risk factors for monitoring during said development project, each of said plurality of inputs being associated with a quantifiable value;

a database for storing each of said plurality of inputs, said database being operable for storing a history of each of said plurality of inputs;

a plurality of projected base levels for each of said plurality of risk factors, said database storing said plurality of projected base levels; and

a computerized program using said plurality of rules for evaluating said plurality of said inputs with respect to said quantifiable and weighted value and for comparison with said plurality of projected base levels for determining a plurality of outputs related to said plurality of risk factors.

12. The expert system of claim 11 wherein said computerized program is operable for producing a historical chart showing historical values for each of said plurality of risk factors with respect to time during said development project.

13. The expert system of claim 12 wherein said historical values are numerical quantities.

14. The expert system of claim 11 wherein said computerized program is manipulatable such that each of said plurality of inputs may be selectively removable.

15. The expert system of claim 11 wherein said computerized program is manipulatable such that additional inputs may be added.

16. The expert system of claim 11 wherein said computerized program is manipulatable such that each of said plurality of outputs may be selectively removable.

17. The expert system of claim 11 wherein said computerized program is manipulatable such that additional outputs may be added.

18. The expert system of claim 11 wherein each of said plurality of outputs may be represented by non-numerical values.

19. The expert system of claim 11 further comprising a second plurality of rules for identifying and monitoring said plurality of risk factors, each of said second plurality of rules being based on alternative expert knowledge, said second plurality of rules being selectively usable by said computerized program.

20. The expert system of claim 11 wherein each of said plurality of risk factors is weighted such that each said quantifiable value is also accordingly weighted.

21. The expert system of claim 11 wherein said computerized program provides that at least one said plurality of outputs relates to an overall risk for said development project.

22. A method for monitoring risk related to a successful completion of a development project comprising the steps of:

providing a plurality of inputs related to risk to said successful completion of said development project;

storing historical values of each of said plurality of inputs in a database;

providing a respective base line projection for each of said plurality of inputs for said development project;

providing a plurality of rule based risk assignment algorithms for predicting risk based on said plurality of inputs and said respective base line projection for each of said plurality of inputs; and

providing a visual output representative of said plurality of risk levels plotted with respect to time.

23. The method of claim 22 wherein visual output comprises a chart with each of said plurality of risk factors being plotted thereon and along with a total risk level.